Johnny Damon, going against the conventional wisdom of the American tourist, motorist and resident, has decided that Detroit is an awesome place! The Red Sox put in a waiver claim for Damon yesterday, who contractually could only be sent to 8 teams without his consent. Unfortunately for Boston, they were not one of the 8 teams Damon had listed, giving him veto power over the waiver claim, which he decided to exercise.
The Red Sox are in desperate need of a spark. They currently sit 5 and a half games out of first in the AL East, in third place behind Tampa and New York. Their season has been mired by devastating injuries and uninspired performances from some of their top line pitchers (most notably Beckett, Lackey and Papelbon, who have performed well for some stretches and have been ineffective for others.) All told, the Sox could have used Damon, even though his performance this season wouldn't classify him as a game-changer. Damon's line--.272/.355/.410-- profiles him as a useful piece that can still get on base reasonably well. His .410 slugging percentage is down 79 points from last season, which is more a function of his leaving a good hitters park for a good pitchers park in Detroit. As a fielder, Damon continues to play an average outfield, posting a 0.4 UZR.
Would Damon have given the Sox more than Daniel Nava or Darnell McDonald? Statistically all 3 have performed similarly, but neither Nava nor McDonald have the track record Damon has, and obviously neither would bring the spark Damon brings. But alas, it was not to be. Apparently Damon was quoted as saying, "I love Detroit" after he determined he wouldn't leave, proving that you don't need to remain in Boston to still be an idiot.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Blue Jays Extend Romero Through 2015
The Blue Jays did something extremely smart for a mid-market team: they locked up a young commodity long-term. 25 year-old left hander Ricky Romero was given a 5 year, 30.1 million dollar contract extension that essentially buys out his arbitration eligible seasons and delays his free agency at least a season. A deal like this would have seemed far fetched for Romero only a couple of seasons ago, when he was dangerously close to be labeled a bust. A former first round pick (6th overall) in 2005 amateur draft, Romero, a Cal-State Fullerton alum, was given a 2.1 million dollar signing bonus upon leaving school. His professional career, prior to the 2009 season, was marred by both injuries and control problems.
Despite his troubles, Romero was placed in the Blue Jays rotation by manager Cito Gaston at the start of the '09 season, and despite a mid-season oblique injury, he was able to perform at a 2.7 WAR level (That's saying Romero's performance was worth 2.7 more wins to the Jays than an average player in his same spot). This season, Romero has been a 3.4 WAR player, the same as CC Sabathia for the Yankees, and his overall performance suggests there is no reason that can't continue in the future.
The smartest thing about the deal (assuming of course Romero doesn't implode) is the overall economic implication. No pitcher has ever been given this type of contract after only pitching a season and a half in the majors, but that doesn't mean it's a bad idea. In baseball, there are essentially two ways to go about dealing with a young player contractually; the first is to go year to year with him, and the second is to lock him up to a long-term deal. Both methods have their pro's and con's.
Going year to year with a player means the team will follow the rules MLB and the player's union setup during their previous collective bargaining agreement regarding the start of a player's major league career. As an example let's use player X, a big time prospect who definitely will perform well when called up. Upon reaching the majors, player X's ML clock starts, which counts how many days of major league service he has had. For player X's first 3 seasons, his contract is "under control" by his team, meaning they are allowed to simply renew his original deal or as most teams due, offer a modest pay increase over that period of time. Upon completion of his 3rd ML season, player X will then become arbitration eligible, meaning in order to maintain his rights the team must offer to have an arbitration hearing to determine how much money he should make at the start of his fourth season. Depending on the arbitration panel's decision, and the player's previous season performance, player X might receive a substantial pay increase over his first 3 seasons in the majors. After his fourth season, player X will be arbitration eligible 2 more times (So 3 seasons of complete contract control and 3 seasons of arbitration) before he can finally file for free agency before the start of his 7th season. That's a relatively brief and abbreviated explanation of going year to year.
The alternative, which the Jays chose to go for with Romero, is to lock your player up long-term relatively early for some serious guac (that's what the kids on the streets call money!). By doing this, the Jays have eliminated all the confusing aspects of going year to year by locking Romero into a fixed sum that will encompass all of his remaining years of complete contract control, as well as all of his arbitration eligible seasons and what would have been his first year of free agency. What are the implications? For the Jays, they either have essentially payed a lot more now to pay a lot less later, or they gave millions of dollars away to a player who could regress or get injured. In arbitration, Romero (assuming, again, he maintains his current level of performance) could make slightly more than he will with this new deal, and he absolutely would have made more on the open market in 2015. So if Romero performs, they'll have both saved money on Romero during his arbitration years and prolonged his tenure in Toronto by an extra season, presumably below market value.
For Romero, the implications are either he sacrificed some money and the ability to reach free agency a bit earlier for long-term security and a hefty sum of money, or he swindled the Jays and gets more than he will ever deserve. Ultimately, the Blue Jays are the ones taking the bigger risk, but as fangraphs notes, it isn't a huge one. Seems like a good deal all around.
Note: For a more in depth economic understanding, click on that fangraphs link above- it was written by a computer nerd, and computer nerds know how numbers work.
Despite his troubles, Romero was placed in the Blue Jays rotation by manager Cito Gaston at the start of the '09 season, and despite a mid-season oblique injury, he was able to perform at a 2.7 WAR level (That's saying Romero's performance was worth 2.7 more wins to the Jays than an average player in his same spot). This season, Romero has been a 3.4 WAR player, the same as CC Sabathia for the Yankees, and his overall performance suggests there is no reason that can't continue in the future.
The smartest thing about the deal (assuming of course Romero doesn't implode) is the overall economic implication. No pitcher has ever been given this type of contract after only pitching a season and a half in the majors, but that doesn't mean it's a bad idea. In baseball, there are essentially two ways to go about dealing with a young player contractually; the first is to go year to year with him, and the second is to lock him up to a long-term deal. Both methods have their pro's and con's.
Going year to year with a player means the team will follow the rules MLB and the player's union setup during their previous collective bargaining agreement regarding the start of a player's major league career. As an example let's use player X, a big time prospect who definitely will perform well when called up. Upon reaching the majors, player X's ML clock starts, which counts how many days of major league service he has had. For player X's first 3 seasons, his contract is "under control" by his team, meaning they are allowed to simply renew his original deal or as most teams due, offer a modest pay increase over that period of time. Upon completion of his 3rd ML season, player X will then become arbitration eligible, meaning in order to maintain his rights the team must offer to have an arbitration hearing to determine how much money he should make at the start of his fourth season. Depending on the arbitration panel's decision, and the player's previous season performance, player X might receive a substantial pay increase over his first 3 seasons in the majors. After his fourth season, player X will be arbitration eligible 2 more times (So 3 seasons of complete contract control and 3 seasons of arbitration) before he can finally file for free agency before the start of his 7th season. That's a relatively brief and abbreviated explanation of going year to year.
The alternative, which the Jays chose to go for with Romero, is to lock your player up long-term relatively early for some serious guac (that's what the kids on the streets call money!). By doing this, the Jays have eliminated all the confusing aspects of going year to year by locking Romero into a fixed sum that will encompass all of his remaining years of complete contract control, as well as all of his arbitration eligible seasons and what would have been his first year of free agency. What are the implications? For the Jays, they either have essentially payed a lot more now to pay a lot less later, or they gave millions of dollars away to a player who could regress or get injured. In arbitration, Romero (assuming, again, he maintains his current level of performance) could make slightly more than he will with this new deal, and he absolutely would have made more on the open market in 2015. So if Romero performs, they'll have both saved money on Romero during his arbitration years and prolonged his tenure in Toronto by an extra season, presumably below market value.
For Romero, the implications are either he sacrificed some money and the ability to reach free agency a bit earlier for long-term security and a hefty sum of money, or he swindled the Jays and gets more than he will ever deserve. Ultimately, the Blue Jays are the ones taking the bigger risk, but as fangraphs notes, it isn't a huge one. Seems like a good deal all around.
Note: For a more in depth economic understanding, click on that fangraphs link above- it was written by a computer nerd, and computer nerds know how numbers work.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Chipper Jones Done For the Year
Bad news for the 1st place Braves-they lost Chipper Jones to a torn ACL for the rest of the season. A common football injury, ACL tears take months to rehabilitate, although Chipper has said he plans on going through that process and returning next season. Jones isn't anywhere near what he used to be, and his last two seasons he has seen most of his power sapped by age and nagging injury. Once a consistent .200+ ISO player, Jones' has regressed to around a .160 ISO player. To combat the power outage, many aging sluggers begin to "cheat" on fastballs that they can no longer handle. In baseball when we say someone is "cheating on a fastball" we mean they're starting their bat a touch earlier than normal in order to catch-up to the fastball they can no longer get around on.
Since the injury the Braves have started Brooks Conrad, a 30-year old career minor leaguer prior to this season, at third base. Braves GM Frank Wren would be well served to try and find a suitable replacement for Jones, either by scouring the waiver wire for a free agent of placing a waiver claim on someone who can handle regular duty. Chipper may not have been what he once was, but he was certainly better than anything else they have for the hot corner.
Since the injury the Braves have started Brooks Conrad, a 30-year old career minor leaguer prior to this season, at third base. Braves GM Frank Wren would be well served to try and find a suitable replacement for Jones, either by scouring the waiver wire for a free agent of placing a waiver claim on someone who can handle regular duty. Chipper may not have been what he once was, but he was certainly better than anything else they have for the hot corner.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
The Trainwreck That is The Seattle Mariners
another good post by Rob Neyer today, sampling some work by Joe Posnanski about how the Mariners never deserved the pre-season adulation that was heaped on them. Mariner's GM Jack Zduriencik is something of a darling among the Saber crowd, coming from a baseball ops/player development background in Milwaukee that was relatively successful under his watch. Unfortunately, Zduriencik's tenure in Seattle has been a mixed bag, especially at the major league level.
For instance, the baseball world applauded his acquisition of Cliff Lee from the Phillies for propects that only Phillies GM Ruben Amaro found to be elite. Lee has since been traded and in return, Zduriencik acquired a crop of prospects better than anything he gave up for the left-hander, so for that he should be applauded. But as Neyer's piece notes, moves like trading for Milton Bradley knowing he would have to play the field; trading for light hitting first baseman Casey Kotchman to replace Russell Branyan; signing light-hitting Chone Figgins to a big, long-term deal; buying too heavily into the pitching and defense concept; all of those moves proved to be killer for a team that really wasn't as close to contention as their 2009 win-loss record would indicate.
Now the question for the M's is what's next? Do they scrap what they have and begin to rebuild in earnest, or try to find new parts to glue onto a foundation of a few high-priced talents they'll have under contract in 2011? The shelf life of a GM who loses at the major league level isn't too long, which leads me to believe it'll be the latter. On top of the bad Bradley contract ($12 million for 2011) they M's will also be doling out $5 million for useless shortstop Jack Wilson and another $9 million for Figgins next season. But hey, at least they'll probably field moderately well!
For instance, the baseball world applauded his acquisition of Cliff Lee from the Phillies for propects that only Phillies GM Ruben Amaro found to be elite. Lee has since been traded and in return, Zduriencik acquired a crop of prospects better than anything he gave up for the left-hander, so for that he should be applauded. But as Neyer's piece notes, moves like trading for Milton Bradley knowing he would have to play the field; trading for light hitting first baseman Casey Kotchman to replace Russell Branyan; signing light-hitting Chone Figgins to a big, long-term deal; buying too heavily into the pitching and defense concept; all of those moves proved to be killer for a team that really wasn't as close to contention as their 2009 win-loss record would indicate.
Now the question for the M's is what's next? Do they scrap what they have and begin to rebuild in earnest, or try to find new parts to glue onto a foundation of a few high-priced talents they'll have under contract in 2011? The shelf life of a GM who loses at the major league level isn't too long, which leads me to believe it'll be the latter. On top of the bad Bradley contract ($12 million for 2011) they M's will also be doling out $5 million for useless shortstop Jack Wilson and another $9 million for Figgins next season. But hey, at least they'll probably field moderately well!
Friday, August 6, 2010
Jose Guillen Available
Unable to find any suitors via trade, the Kansas City Royals cut outfielder Jose Guillen, one of their highest paid players. Signed after a decent season in Seattle, Guillen was never the middle of the order bat the Royals had envisioned, but then again they were pretty stupid to think he would be. Although he showed flashes of power and the ability to hit for average in the middle part of the decade, Guillen never showed a consistent ability to work the count and take a walk (his career walk rate is 5 percent, compared to Albert Pujols who's career walk rate is 13.4 percent). Ultimately, KC was paying about 12 million dollars annually for a 20-25 home run player with a .300-.315 OBP. For a small market team with limited revenue streams, I can think of about 12 million better ways to allocate that sum of money.
At this point, Guillen's probably a platoon bat, best suited for the AL where he can DH--which he had been doing exclusively in Kansas City--that can give you a little bit of pop from the right side. His ability to get on base has declined severely in his time with Kansas City, as his walk rate and strike out rate in '10 hover around 6 percent and 21 percent, respectively. Any player who walks 6 percent of the time and strikes out almost a one-fourth of the time is going to be of limited offensive use. ESPN is reporting the Yankees and Giants may be interested- the latter because they're starved for offense and the former because they can afford to make any dumb mistake that comes across their check book.
The real lesson here, as I alluded to earlier, is that the Royals should not have thrown that much money at a short term DH solution, that isn't any good, and won't help your team win. Compounding the issue is the fact that the Royals plan when they signed Guillen as a free agent was essentially to lose, in the interim, and slowly build a winner over time. How a 3 year, 36 million dollar contract to a player of Guillen's caliber helps achieve that long-term goal escapes me. Forgetting for the moment that Guillen sucks (which he does, and did when he was signed by KC), shouldn't a team like the Royals set aside that 12 million dollars to spend on their draft, where they can cultivate and control home grown, potentially A-caliber players for many years? Sure the draft can be a crapshoot and many players who are highly touted don't amount to much. But if you're a small market team, it's a risk that MUST be taken for the good of the franchise. The payoff, if done properly, is you end up like the Rays who are 2 years removed from a world series and are currently battling for first place in a division with the Yankees and the Red Sox.
At this point, Guillen's probably a platoon bat, best suited for the AL where he can DH--which he had been doing exclusively in Kansas City--that can give you a little bit of pop from the right side. His ability to get on base has declined severely in his time with Kansas City, as his walk rate and strike out rate in '10 hover around 6 percent and 21 percent, respectively. Any player who walks 6 percent of the time and strikes out almost a one-fourth of the time is going to be of limited offensive use. ESPN is reporting the Yankees and Giants may be interested- the latter because they're starved for offense and the former because they can afford to make any dumb mistake that comes across their check book.
The real lesson here, as I alluded to earlier, is that the Royals should not have thrown that much money at a short term DH solution, that isn't any good, and won't help your team win. Compounding the issue is the fact that the Royals plan when they signed Guillen as a free agent was essentially to lose, in the interim, and slowly build a winner over time. How a 3 year, 36 million dollar contract to a player of Guillen's caliber helps achieve that long-term goal escapes me. Forgetting for the moment that Guillen sucks (which he does, and did when he was signed by KC), shouldn't a team like the Royals set aside that 12 million dollars to spend on their draft, where they can cultivate and control home grown, potentially A-caliber players for many years? Sure the draft can be a crapshoot and many players who are highly touted don't amount to much. But if you're a small market team, it's a risk that MUST be taken for the good of the franchise. The payoff, if done properly, is you end up like the Rays who are 2 years removed from a world series and are currently battling for first place in a division with the Yankees and the Red Sox.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Youkilis Done For the Year
So apparently that bizarre thumb injury that no other athlete has ever had, has claimed the rest of Kevin Youkilis' 2010 season. Youkilis had a very respectable .307/.411/.564 line, and as of the day he went down was worth about 4 wins over the course of the season when compared to the average major league 1st baseman. Production like that is hard to duplicate--especially post trade deadline-- so Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has said he will attempt to find a suitable left-handed bat to platoon with Mike Lowell for the rest of the season.
Lowell has had something of a lost season due to injury, age and Adrian Beltre stealing his position. At this stage of his career he is probably best suited defensively for 1st base anyway, but a platoon mate will probably be necessary to maximize his skill set (and by that I mean keep him from breaking down at a faster pace than he already is). The problem, as I eluded to earlier, is finding such a bat. Even if we assume Lowell can hit lefties anything like he did last year (a .301/.363/.503 line, pretty optimistic as it is) finding a left-handed caddy who can do the same against righties may prove supremely difficult. Bottom line, The Sox will miss Youkilis, and their chances of making the playoffs coming out of the toughest division in baseball have gone down substantially.
Lowell has had something of a lost season due to injury, age and Adrian Beltre stealing his position. At this stage of his career he is probably best suited defensively for 1st base anyway, but a platoon mate will probably be necessary to maximize his skill set (and by that I mean keep him from breaking down at a faster pace than he already is). The problem, as I eluded to earlier, is finding such a bat. Even if we assume Lowell can hit lefties anything like he did last year (a .301/.363/.503 line, pretty optimistic as it is) finding a left-handed caddy who can do the same against righties may prove supremely difficult. Bottom line, The Sox will miss Youkilis, and their chances of making the playoffs coming out of the toughest division in baseball have gone down substantially.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Still Not Done
ESPN today has an article up about 9 potential players who could be moved in a post-trade deadline deal. In order for a player to be dealt after the deadline, he must first be put on waivers, and clear the requisite waiver period without being claimed by another team. It isn't well known amongst baseball fans, but superstars being placed on waivers is actually a relatively common occurrence. Manny Ramirez, who made Jerry Crasnick's list of possible post-trade deadline movers, was actually put on waivers after the trade deadline quite often by the Red Sox, mostly during those last few tumultuous seasons.
Now if you're saying, "but Bryant, I don't mean to question your considerable brilliance, but why would they do that?" The answer is multi-faceted. Th first reason most teams do this is because they can. Generally, players of Manny's caliber and experience have gigantic contracts, and teams who may be interested in the player are often scared off by the price tag, thus negating the danger on the part of the team making the waiver move. Once the player clears waivers, he can be traded to other teams, which is the essential value of making the waiver move in the first place, but this too is predicated on finding a team willing to take on at least some of the player's contract.
The other reason teams put big money guys on waivers is for the obvious; they hope someone will claim him and take him off their hands. Manny's a good example, because in the last couple of years of "Manny being Manny," Boston would have been happy to allow him to walk for nothing in return but salary relief. Unfortunately for Boston, Manny's massive contract always resulted in other teams taking a pass.
Now if you're saying, "but Bryant, I don't mean to question your considerable brilliance, but why would they do that?" The answer is multi-faceted. Th first reason most teams do this is because they can. Generally, players of Manny's caliber and experience have gigantic contracts, and teams who may be interested in the player are often scared off by the price tag, thus negating the danger on the part of the team making the waiver move. Once the player clears waivers, he can be traded to other teams, which is the essential value of making the waiver move in the first place, but this too is predicated on finding a team willing to take on at least some of the player's contract.
The other reason teams put big money guys on waivers is for the obvious; they hope someone will claim him and take him off their hands. Manny's a good example, because in the last couple of years of "Manny being Manny," Boston would have been happy to allow him to walk for nothing in return but salary relief. Unfortunately for Boston, Manny's massive contract always resulted in other teams taking a pass.
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Trade Analysis
Rather than do a write-up for every major trade that went on this past week, I'll just do one giant post about all that I wish to discuss, because it's Sunday and I'm super lazy! Without further ado, the 2010 MLB trade deadline:
1) Yankees acquire First Baseman/DH Lance Berkman and cash from the Astros for Relief Pitcher Mark Melancon and Infielder Jimmy Paredes
Berkman, also apparently known as "Fat Elvis," slots into the DH spot Nick Johnson would be in if he wasn't made out of paper mache. Berkman's numbers are down this year, with a .242/.367/.430 line, which is apparently due to both age and a knee injury he rushed back early from. As the knee continues to improve, so should his numbers, and playing in the AL where he can DH his brains out can't hurt either. Berkman will never be the player he was 2 years ago, but he can still get on-base, has a little bit of pop, switch hits and won't kill you in the field.
In return the Astros, who have finally gotten the picture that they suck, get a reliever who has thrown a combined 20 and a third major league innings and a "toolsy" (scout speak for athletic and talented without ever really putting it all together) infielder who according to Keith Law at ESPN.com is, "without a clear position." Not too say either player can't or won't produce in the majors, it's just far from a slam dunk.
Winner: Yankees: Berkman's contract isn't an issue for the bombers, and they didn't give up anything of note to get him. He's a bad body player whose career is winding down, but DH'ing can do a lot for those types of guys. Melancon has good stuff, but he hasn't put it all together at the higher organizational levels.
Braves Acquire Outfielder Rick Ankiel and Relief Pitcher Kyle Farnsworth from the Royals for Outfielder Gregor Blanco, Relief Pitcher Jesse Chavez and Pitcher Tim Collins
Royals GM Dayton Moore used to be a front office guy for the Braves, so he cuts deals with them all the time to get names he can remember from scouting reports long past, when they might have been something. Ultimately, they are not (see: Davies, Kyle). That being said, he wasn't going to get much for either Ankiel or Farnsworth to begin with, so dumping salary is all well and good for a last-place team going nowhere. The Braves do improve with the deal, which is more of a testament to how terrible Nate McLouth was than anything else. Ankiel's line of .261/.317/.467 really isn't starting center fielder worthy, but McLouth was hitting .168/.279/.265, so in comparison, Ankiel is Mickey Mantle. The other piece the Braves got, reliever Kyle Farnsworth, should be nicknamed, "Danny Ocean," for his unique ability to constantly steal millions of dollars from teams every year without ever being caught (cause, yah know, he sucks). That being said, Mr. Ocean is actually having a decent season, with a 2.42 ERA and an equally good 3.16 FIP. Also, for what it's worth, Farnsworth's best season came when he spent half the year in Atlanta in 2005, so it's possible he could be a useful piece. Or he could be Kyle Farnsworth. Check back in 3 months.
In return for that glorious bounty, the Royals get Chavez, a below average reliever who has shown some ability to get a strikeout; a serviceable fourth outfielder with little pop in Blanco, and Tim Collins, who you may remember from the Yunel Escobar trade earlier in the year. The knock on Collins has been his stature--he's listed as being 5'7'', 155 pounds-- but he has had an excellent strikeout per nine innings (K/9) all throughout the minors. If Collins can't cut it as a starter due to wear and tear, perhaps he can be an effective left-handed reliever.
Winner: Nobody really, but I guess the Braves, even though statistically the best player in this deal is my size (still waiting for that call-up....any day now...don't worry, I got time....why isn't the phone ringing...).
3-Way Trade: Cardinals acquire Right Handed Starter Jake Westbrook and Left Hander Nick Greenwood; Padres receive Outfielder Ryan Ludwick; Indians receive Pitcher Cory Kluber
Everything about this deal seems to have been hinged on the performance of St. Louis outfielder Jon Jay, who has had an impressive first month up with the big club (.383/.433/.533) making Ludwick expendable, in the eyes of the Cardinal front office. Admittedly, I've always found Ludwick to be overrated. His 2008 season has been bookended by mediocrity or worse, but for the offensively starved Padres, he is a welcome addition to the club. Even if Ludwick were to perform at career averages he'd be a steal for a fluky San Diego team that has out performed it's talent level all season.
The Cardinals get Jake Westbrook, a strike throwing sinkerballer who fits the mold of how the Cardinals put together a pitching staff (Keep Carpenter and Wainwright around, then sign whoever is down and out and let Dave Duncan revitalize their career, so that they can hit the open market and steal a ton of money from the Brewers). I expect Westbrook then to perform well in St. Louis, although it seems difficult for me at this time to make the same prediction about Jon Jay. Although off to a hot start, the small sample size suggests that he may be in over his head, and if he comes back to earth, the Cardinals are going to miss that dull, unimpressive warmth off a Ryan Ludwick hug.
For their part, the Indians get Cory Kluber and salary relief to fuel their perpetual rebuilding machine that they've utilized since forever. Kluber has decent minor league peripherals and probably profiles at best as a Jake Westbrook, middle to back of the rotation type. Kluber has never been dominant at any professional level--he almost always gives up at least a hit per inning, whether it's single-A, double-A or rookie ball--but his K/BB rates have been good enough that the Indians, who obviously have nothing but more games to lose, should give him a shot.
Winners: The Padres, who before this trade were looking into the possibility if signing Isuro Tanaka for the stretch run.
Dodgers Acquire Left Handed Starter Ted Lilly and Infielder Ryan Theriot from the Cubs for Infielder Black DeWitt, Right Handed pitcher Brett Wallach and Right Handed Pitcher Kyle Smit
This deal is all about Lilly, who the Dodgers were able to get even with the messy divorce that has engulfed the teams financial situation this season. Lilly has a terrible win-loss record, but he may be the poster child for why that's so irrelevant when analyzing player production. Despite being 3-8, he sports a 3.69 ERA and a 4.50 FIP, which while not great, should be helped by moving to a better park for fly-ball pitchers, like himself. Lilly's stuff is not what it used to be (I saw a game earlier this year where he seemed to working almost exclusively in the mid-80's) but he has a good secondary repertoire and will most likely improve the Dodger rotation. Along with Lilly came Theriot, a player who saw a lot of plate appearances because Lou Piniella loves it when players swing the bat, no matter what. For the Dodgers, Theriot is mostly a back-up infielder, which suits him better than a starting job anyway. He effectively replaces Blake DeWitt, as he can play short or second.
For the Cubs, DeWitt profiles as, well, a back-up infielder who doesn't hit much but has shown the ability to get on base when given the opportunity. He can play both second and third effectively, but can't replace Theriot at short, which is fine anyway because the Cubs have Starlin Castro. Brett Wallach, a 21year-old right hander, had a pretty good K/9 inning rate in 2009, despite a bad ERA. Smit is a strike throwing reliever who projects as a middle-man at the major league level.
Winner: Ted Lilly: Because he's going to a contender. I always liked him, ever since he came up with the Yankees looking like a terrified kindergartener on the verge of crying. You can try and grow a beard, Ted, but you still look like that 5 year-old who just dropped his ice cream cone on the ground.
1) Yankees acquire First Baseman/DH Lance Berkman and cash from the Astros for Relief Pitcher Mark Melancon and Infielder Jimmy Paredes
Berkman, also apparently known as "Fat Elvis," slots into the DH spot Nick Johnson would be in if he wasn't made out of paper mache. Berkman's numbers are down this year, with a .242/.367/.430 line, which is apparently due to both age and a knee injury he rushed back early from. As the knee continues to improve, so should his numbers, and playing in the AL where he can DH his brains out can't hurt either. Berkman will never be the player he was 2 years ago, but he can still get on-base, has a little bit of pop, switch hits and won't kill you in the field.
In return the Astros, who have finally gotten the picture that they suck, get a reliever who has thrown a combined 20 and a third major league innings and a "toolsy" (scout speak for athletic and talented without ever really putting it all together) infielder who according to Keith Law at ESPN.com is, "without a clear position." Not too say either player can't or won't produce in the majors, it's just far from a slam dunk.
Winner: Yankees: Berkman's contract isn't an issue for the bombers, and they didn't give up anything of note to get him. He's a bad body player whose career is winding down, but DH'ing can do a lot for those types of guys. Melancon has good stuff, but he hasn't put it all together at the higher organizational levels.
Braves Acquire Outfielder Rick Ankiel and Relief Pitcher Kyle Farnsworth from the Royals for Outfielder Gregor Blanco, Relief Pitcher Jesse Chavez and Pitcher Tim Collins
Royals GM Dayton Moore used to be a front office guy for the Braves, so he cuts deals with them all the time to get names he can remember from scouting reports long past, when they might have been something. Ultimately, they are not (see: Davies, Kyle). That being said, he wasn't going to get much for either Ankiel or Farnsworth to begin with, so dumping salary is all well and good for a last-place team going nowhere. The Braves do improve with the deal, which is more of a testament to how terrible Nate McLouth was than anything else. Ankiel's line of .261/.317/.467 really isn't starting center fielder worthy, but McLouth was hitting .168/.279/.265, so in comparison, Ankiel is Mickey Mantle. The other piece the Braves got, reliever Kyle Farnsworth, should be nicknamed, "Danny Ocean," for his unique ability to constantly steal millions of dollars from teams every year without ever being caught (cause, yah know, he sucks). That being said, Mr. Ocean is actually having a decent season, with a 2.42 ERA and an equally good 3.16 FIP. Also, for what it's worth, Farnsworth's best season came when he spent half the year in Atlanta in 2005, so it's possible he could be a useful piece. Or he could be Kyle Farnsworth. Check back in 3 months.
In return for that glorious bounty, the Royals get Chavez, a below average reliever who has shown some ability to get a strikeout; a serviceable fourth outfielder with little pop in Blanco, and Tim Collins, who you may remember from the Yunel Escobar trade earlier in the year. The knock on Collins has been his stature--he's listed as being 5'7'', 155 pounds-- but he has had an excellent strikeout per nine innings (K/9) all throughout the minors. If Collins can't cut it as a starter due to wear and tear, perhaps he can be an effective left-handed reliever.
Winner: Nobody really, but I guess the Braves, even though statistically the best player in this deal is my size (still waiting for that call-up....any day now...don't worry, I got time....why isn't the phone ringing...).
3-Way Trade: Cardinals acquire Right Handed Starter Jake Westbrook and Left Hander Nick Greenwood; Padres receive Outfielder Ryan Ludwick; Indians receive Pitcher Cory Kluber
Everything about this deal seems to have been hinged on the performance of St. Louis outfielder Jon Jay, who has had an impressive first month up with the big club (.383/.433/.533) making Ludwick expendable, in the eyes of the Cardinal front office. Admittedly, I've always found Ludwick to be overrated. His 2008 season has been bookended by mediocrity or worse, but for the offensively starved Padres, he is a welcome addition to the club. Even if Ludwick were to perform at career averages he'd be a steal for a fluky San Diego team that has out performed it's talent level all season.
The Cardinals get Jake Westbrook, a strike throwing sinkerballer who fits the mold of how the Cardinals put together a pitching staff (Keep Carpenter and Wainwright around, then sign whoever is down and out and let Dave Duncan revitalize their career, so that they can hit the open market and steal a ton of money from the Brewers). I expect Westbrook then to perform well in St. Louis, although it seems difficult for me at this time to make the same prediction about Jon Jay. Although off to a hot start, the small sample size suggests that he may be in over his head, and if he comes back to earth, the Cardinals are going to miss that dull, unimpressive warmth off a Ryan Ludwick hug.
For their part, the Indians get Cory Kluber and salary relief to fuel their perpetual rebuilding machine that they've utilized since forever. Kluber has decent minor league peripherals and probably profiles at best as a Jake Westbrook, middle to back of the rotation type. Kluber has never been dominant at any professional level--he almost always gives up at least a hit per inning, whether it's single-A, double-A or rookie ball--but his K/BB rates have been good enough that the Indians, who obviously have nothing but more games to lose, should give him a shot.
Winners: The Padres, who before this trade were looking into the possibility if signing Isuro Tanaka for the stretch run.
Dodgers Acquire Left Handed Starter Ted Lilly and Infielder Ryan Theriot from the Cubs for Infielder Black DeWitt, Right Handed pitcher Brett Wallach and Right Handed Pitcher Kyle Smit
This deal is all about Lilly, who the Dodgers were able to get even with the messy divorce that has engulfed the teams financial situation this season. Lilly has a terrible win-loss record, but he may be the poster child for why that's so irrelevant when analyzing player production. Despite being 3-8, he sports a 3.69 ERA and a 4.50 FIP, which while not great, should be helped by moving to a better park for fly-ball pitchers, like himself. Lilly's stuff is not what it used to be (I saw a game earlier this year where he seemed to working almost exclusively in the mid-80's) but he has a good secondary repertoire and will most likely improve the Dodger rotation. Along with Lilly came Theriot, a player who saw a lot of plate appearances because Lou Piniella loves it when players swing the bat, no matter what. For the Dodgers, Theriot is mostly a back-up infielder, which suits him better than a starting job anyway. He effectively replaces Blake DeWitt, as he can play short or second.
For the Cubs, DeWitt profiles as, well, a back-up infielder who doesn't hit much but has shown the ability to get on base when given the opportunity. He can play both second and third effectively, but can't replace Theriot at short, which is fine anyway because the Cubs have Starlin Castro. Brett Wallach, a 21year-old right hander, had a pretty good K/9 inning rate in 2009, despite a bad ERA. Smit is a strike throwing reliever who projects as a middle-man at the major league level.
Winner: Ted Lilly: Because he's going to a contender. I always liked him, ever since he came up with the Yankees looking like a terrified kindergartener on the verge of crying. You can try and grow a beard, Ted, but you still look like that 5 year-old who just dropped his ice cream cone on the ground.
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