Baltimore Orioles Catcher Matt Wieters: Still Better Than Sliced Bread?

Long suffering Oriole fans have had to deal with an inordinate amount of losing over the last decade, brought about by some avoidable (poor management) and unavoidable (being collateral damage in the Yankee-Red Sox 100 years war) circumstances.

After a failed early decade spending spree, the Orioles brain trust finally determined the only way to compete effectively in the AL East was to build through the minors, and with that came 2007 first-round pickMatt Wieters. Now while it is true, Wieters once framed a pitch so perfectly it counted as two strikes (it's a Matt Wieters Fact, and everything on the Internet is true) his sublime greatness has yet to translate to solid production at the major league level. Wieters is still young (he'll turn 25 in May) so it's not time to hit the panic button, but there are some red flags, especially in terms of power and selectivity.

First, the power outage. Wieters' ISO score has dropped consistently since Double-A, from an impressive .260 to .128 in 2010, putting him just above Kurt Suzuki (.123) and just below Joe Mauer (.141) among major league catchers with at least 400 plate appearances. The presence of Mauer here is deceptive; although he had a big power year in 2009, his 2010 score was more in line with career averages, as Mauer is known more for being a great hitter than a great power hitter. Wieters' reputation throughout college and the minors was that of a power hitter, so the low ISO scores over 887 major league plate appearances are cause for alarm.

The second big problem here is the K/BB ratio. A high K percentage isn't an anomaly among power hitters, and if Wieters were in fact hitting for power, no one would care that he strikes out over 20 percent of the time. The problem is he isn't. Of qualifying catchers (as I've determined qualifying, over 400 PA) Wieters is sixth highest in K percentage (21.1 percent) but 11th in ISO—no other catcher who struck out over 20 percent of the time had an ISO below .158.

J. Meric/Getty Images

Compounding the strikeout problem is the walk rate: 9.4 percent in 2010, good for sixth among qualifying catchers, but not good enough to make up for the strikeouts. As a result, Wieters sported a 0.50 BB/K ratio, good for 12th best in the league, and his unusually low batting average in 2010 dropped his on-base percentage to .319.

Overall, it's easy to just say Wieters had a down year, but eventually the hype won't mask the performance. Until the manReggie Jackson refers to as "Mr. Whenever the Hell He Wants" proves he can do what he did in Double-A at the major league level, the questions will remain. I'm still bullish on Wieters for now, but another season of being out-slugged by Ryan Doumit will bring an end to that.

The saving grace for O's fans may be that all of Baltimore's top-level prospects seemed to have underperformed for their expectations, so perhaps the problem had to do with the pre-Buck Showalter regime. Whatever the case may be, 2011 is fixing to be a big year in Baltimore.

2011 Mets: Let the Fire Sale Begin

This point may be moot, due to a billion-dollar ponzi scheme (I'm still rooting for a, "Bernie Madoff with my team's payroll and all I got was this lousy t-shirt" promotional day) but if there is a choice for the Mets between going for it or rebuilding, they should rebuild. In fact, the Mets should have started the rebuilding process at least a season ago, when their roster was a combination of a few expensive top level talents, back-up catchers, and nothing. Instead, then GM Omar Minaya decided the best way to keep his job was to double down, sign Jason Bay and hope for the best. It didn't work. Now there's a new regime in town left to deal with a bloated payroll and the juggernaut that will be the Phillies. Here are 5 moves the Mets should make as soon as possible.

5) Cut Oliver Perez

He's useless. He's been useless for the duration of his major league career and there's no reason to believe he will turn it around when he's about to turn 30. Perez's K/BB ratio the last 2 seasons was absolutely abysmal, and his bloated ERA over that time matched his bloated FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) so it's not like he's been unlucky. Perez has stolen $24 million from the Mets the last 2 season and hasn't even been above replacement level (WAR of -1.1 in 2010) all the while his velocity has dropped and his attitude has been terrible (he refused to go to the minors to straighten himself out, preferring instead to make sure he brought the major league club down and not the single-A affiliate). New Met GM Sandy Alderson is delusional if he really thinks Perez can crack the rotation out of camp, and he simply won't perform well enough at the big league level to warrant any trade interest. Perez is scheduled to make another $12 million this season before his God-awful contract mercifully ends, so the Mets will try everything to avoid simply cutting him and eating the money. But in the end they won't find a taker via trade, and because keeping him around will be to the detriment of the team, they'll dump him.

4) Trade/Cut Luis Castillo

Another dumb contract that never had a chance to be worthwhile, Castillo is also in the final year of a 4-year deal that will pay him $6 million in 2011. He's 35, has as much pop as a Barry Manilow Album, and hasn't played above replacement level defense since 2007 (with '08 and '09 being particularly terrible defensive years). Castillo may still swipe a few bags and he gets on base, but at some point you hit that threshold where the slugging is so inept it nullifies some of the positive OBP effect--Castillo has hit said threshold. If the Mets do move him they'll have to take on some, if not most, of that salary which is still more ideal than cutting him and taking it all on for no return. The Mets are trying rule 5 pick Brad Emaus out at second along with Daniel Murphy, so Castillo's presence only serves to block 2 younger players with some upside. Dump him.

3) Send Jenrry Mejia back down to the minors/convert to starter

I don't know if you could tell by now, but in my opinion the words "win now" should be just below the words "solid investment opportunity" on the list of things the Mets shouldn't be saying in 2011. Mejia has number 1 starter stuff, but he was hastily thrown onto the Major League roster last year because Jerry Manuel really needed him as a set-up man for the imaginary playoff run they were going to make. All told in 2010, Mejia threw 39 innings and kept his head above water; not bad for a 20 year-old but the potential is there for much more. Yes, he lost a year of development to this dumb experiment, but he's still young and was hardly overworked last year. The bottom of the NL East need not require a 21 year-old floundering in the starting rotation. Send him down.

2) Trade Carlos Beltran

The ultimate display of rebuilding, moving Beltran is no small order; he's set to make $18.5 million this year and has a full no trade clause (Cot's Baseball Contracts is an awesome, awesome site). That being said, it's the right thing to do, even if it means eating some of the contract. Beltran has battled injuries the last 2 years but has performed when healthy--3.1 WAR in 2009 despite only playing in 81 games--and in his last full season of play he was downright dynamic with a .284/.376/.500 line and a 7.1 WAR. His fielding during non-injury plagued seasons is usually average to good and his speed score, while declining with age, hasn't dropped entirely off the face of the map. There's still a lot of value here and I'd imagine, it being a contract year, he'll look to regain that MVP type form from years past before hitting free agency (yeah, I know it's a contract year for Perez and Castillo too, but those are lost causes no matter what). In terms of the full no trade, would Beltran really refuse the chance to play for a team in contention? The Mets should pick the right moment and sell high here.

1) David Wright or Jose Reyes- Pick one, move the other

I have long advocated this move for the Mets, but the idea is generally received poorly by Met fans who still have hard-ons for years past. Let's look at this rationally and consider the facts: As they're currently constructed, the Mets are not contenders and their farm system doesn't have any top-tier talent a hop, skip or jump away from the majors to help. Their payroll is an amorphous blob of terrible, with some of the biggest contracts going to players who blow (Ollie and Louie) players who underperformed terribly last year (Bay, Reyes) players who are hurt and will miss significant time in 2011 (Santana) and players who beat their father-in-law's (K-Rod). Wright and Reyes are, in terms of age, heading into the prime of their careers-Wright will be 29 this year, Reyes will turn 28 mid-season. Both are reasonably priced for their respective values, with Wright being worth more right now in terms of production and money-owed. Both players would fetch impressive packages of prospects, especially if Reyes rebounds this season to post numbers close to his 2008 season when he was a 6.0 WAR player. On top of all that, the Mets probably aren't just a year away from the playoff hunt, this mess will take a bit longer to cleanup. If it were up to me, I'd hope Reyes rebounds in the first few months of '11 and then shop him like there's no tomorrow. Wright's deal is a bit more cumbersome to move, but his age and productivity will make him attractive no matter what. Either way, it's time the Mets manned up and did what was best for the future, because there really isn't any present anyway.

Are the Yankees Underdogs?

A point-counterpoint from ESPN today about whether or not we can classify the Yankees as underdogs heading into the season. I'm not entirely sure what definition of underdog ESPN is using, but if it's...

–noun

1.

a person who is expected to lose in a contest or conflict.

then no, the Yankees are not underdogs. PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus system of projecting player and team performance through advanced metrics, has the Yanks winning 91 games- enough to win the wild card but 1 game worse than the Red Sox for the division. Of course, PECOTA isn't the be all and end all of baseball and, really, predicting how a division will ultimately fare is pretty impossible considering all of the different variables that will affect teams (injuries, trades, under/over performance of players, etc.). But because it's fun to predict (as I'll be doing here shortly) we fans do it, and I doubt you'll find a prediction that has the Yankees finishing outside of wild card contention. Is this a strong Yankee team compared to previous seasons? No, their pitching staff has holes so big not even Bartolo Colon's fat ass can fill them, and they're old. That being said, they're still going to score runs (they led the league in runs scored last year with 7 of their 9 main hitters under-performing) and, optimistically, the bullpen may shorten enough games to the point that you only need a mediocre performance from a starter that only lasts 5 innings for a win.

The AL East may be more wide open than usual this year, unless the Red Sox run away with things, which is a possibility. If you want to topple the mighty Yankees, this is the year to do it. Too bad the Orioles and Jays are still a few years away. The Rays lost Carl Crawford, but have enough organizational depth to make life difficult for both Boston and New York. I have no problem calling a team other than the Yankees the favorites, but it's a stretch to call them underdogs.

More Baseball

Adam Wainwright may have a significant elbow injury. Huge, gigantic blow to the Cardinals. Wainwright has become one of the best starters in baseball the last couple of seasons, with very good K/BB ratio's, sterling ERA's and a WAR of 5.7 or better. This could reshape the entire division.

ChiSox GM Kenny Williams says $30 million annually for 1 player is 'asinine.' There are some stats out there that are able to affix exact dollar amounts to player performance that I'm not well versed in, so without that knowledge I can't definitively say if he's right or wrong. That being said, I think he's probably right, at least to a certain degree. Albert Pujols' performance may be worth $30 million dollars annually, but is it worth it for the Pirates to pay that price?

I've read a lot of articles saying the Jose Bautista deal was good for both the player and the Blue Jays, but I'm still skeptical. None of the articles seem overly concerned with the fact that Bautista is on the down side of 30, and they all seem happy to gloss over the lack of a track record or the fact that every Blue Jay regular had a surge in power last season.

Joba's Weight Gain Highlights Fattest Off-Season in Yankee History

Yeah, I know CC Sabathia lost 25 pounds this off-season by cutting out Cap'n Crunch, that he ate daily, BY THE BOX (wanna know how unhealthy that shit is? on the FAQ page of their website, it asks why should kids and adults eat Cap'n Crunch, and their answer is that breakfast is important and cereal is easy for busy parents to make. When your reasoning is better suited for the McDonald's drive-thru window than your pure sugar dingleberries, your product isn't healthy).

They make no illusions about their unhealthiness-even the Cap'n himself is a fat fuck, and he's eating his own cereal.

Whatever weight Sabathia lost, apparently Joba Chamberlain found, and the concerns about his performance have gotten underway even earlier than they usually do because of it. I'm not sure what to do with Chamberlain anymore; I think the Yankees mishandled transitioning him from reliever to starter with their nonsensical innings cap that made his role fluctuate too often. The Yankee stance is that Chamberlain's stuff has been diminished following a 2008 shoulder injury in Texas, but I hadn't heard that excuse until today. What Chamberlain's upside is now is anyone's guess. At one time he had number 1 starter potential, with a chance for 4 plus pitches (fastball, curveball, slider, change) but his velocity is down from '07-'08 and it hasn't really rebounded. I'm afraid Joba is dangerously close to the designation of a player who could "use a change of scenery," a pity considering all the potential, and frankly his performance. Chamberlain mostly plays the role of goat in New York now, but he continues to post very good strikeout rates despite the lost velocity and his FIP outperformed his ERA by almost a run and a half last year. Chamberlain isn't a lost cause (yet) and I still think he has value either through performance or trade.

Contract Talk

The Brewers gave Rickie Weeks a 4-year, $38.5 million deal despite a career plagued by injuries and sometimes erratic performance. Weeks had a great 2010 and is only 29, so if he can reproduce those numbers for the duration of the deal, it'll probably be a good investment for the Brewers. The deal ends just after a player's peak years, so if you're going to pay Weeks big, now is the time to do it.

More contract new out of Blue Jays camp where sources are saying the team is close to giving Jose Bautista a 5-year, $65 million dollar extension following a season in which he hit more home runs than he had hit in his 3 previous seasons combined. Bautista is one of the more interesting players to watch this year, if only to see if his 2010 was the flash in the pan it looks like. Prior to 2010 Bautista never slugged more than .420 but exceeded that by nearly 200 points (.617!) last year. He still didn't hit for average, and probably never will, but he does get on-base. At 30 years old this contract doesn't look good, even if I assume he somehow maintains this power well into hid mid-30's, which he most likely will not do. Hell, I'll be surprised if he maintains this power going into this season. Jose Bautista's story is a nice one, but it smells a lot more like Brady Anderson than Sammy Sosa.

And finally on the contract front, the Albert Pujols deadline came and went without an agreement on a new deal, meaning Pujols will become a free agent after this season. I can't blame the Cardinals considering the numbers being thrown around (10-years, $300 million) but they can be blamed for giving Matt Holliday a bad contract that may restrict some of their financial flexibility here. If the Alex Rodriguez deal is the benchmark, it shouldn't be; it was a dumb deal when the Rangers gave him $252 million and dumber for the Yankees to go up to $275 million. But at the end of the day the Yankees can afford quarter billion dollar plus blunders, no other team can. If the Cards give Pujols that type of deal and he gets hurt, they'll be crippled financially for a decade. Stay tuned.

Smell That? Smells Like Pitchers and Catchers Reporting...

Ah yes, the day has come. ESPN is actually live updating the first day of spring training, keeping us up to date on all the important happenings like:

	AndrewMarchand: Phil Hughes again lived at home with his parents this offseason.#espnst [via Twitter]

	Gordon Edes: Bobby Jenks met with media yesterday, and made it clear he had no interest whatsoever in revisiting the Twitter beating he took from Oney Guillen, the son of the White Sox manager, who dished a lot of personal stuff about Jenks in his tweets.

	AndrewMarchand: Hey, it is only 15 degrees warmer here in Tampa (64) compared to the Bronx. #notcomplainingjustsaying #espnst [via Twitter]

Wow!

As you can see, not much actually happens today other than physicals and blowing tremendous amounts of smoke up people's asses. But there was one interesting piece of information: CC Sabathia wouldn't close the door on opting out of his contract. Many people don't know about the opt-out clause Sabathia was given when he signed his mega-deal, thrown in as a safeguard in case he didn't enjoy New York (remember, he wanted all along to go to a west coast team and play near home, but he took the money in New York).

Sabathia has said he wants to pitch till he's 40, and his current deal takes him through his age 35 season. If he opted out, would he be able to cover more years on the back-end at a premium price? He certainly isn't going to find more dollars per year anywhere else, but would the Yankees feel too spurned by Sabathia to negotiate more years, after already making a huge 7 year investment? History suggests that won't be the case--Alex Rodriguez wasn't exactly punished, was he--but it's something Sabathia will have to consider before making any decisions. Perhaps the temptation of playing out west will be too great this time around, now that Sabathia has his ring. How ironic it would be; not often do you hear about players using the organization then tossing them aside when they're done with them.

Usually this is where I'd make a fat joke with regards to the "pitch till age 40" thing, but it's not like he won't be able to do it fat, he's been doing it fat for years!

Of course all of that is about a million steps away from where we are now- spring training, Huzzah!

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

The Cards have till noon Wednesday to work out a contract extension for Albert Pujols. If nothing is agreed to by then, negotiations shut down till after the season, when Pujols has said he will test free agency.

Terry Collins wants to prove he's a new man with the Mets, and by new man, they mean not a marginal manager.

Andy Pettitte Retires: Great Yankee, Good Pitcher, Not Quite a Hall of Famer

My approach to analyzing the Yankees' off-season was to assume Andy Pettitte would be retiring, which became official today. Pettitte is beloved by Yankee fans and deservedly so, considering the role he played in winning 5 titles in a 13 year Yankee career. Pettitte's numbers were always good, usually never great, but his consistency is remarkable considering all the time spent in the AL East. Some have called Pettitte the greatest number 3 starter of his generation; others would say he was clearly a number 1 at different points in his career, even if the numbers suggest he wasn't an "ace." I say why not split the difference and call Pettitte a very good number 2 starter, who's role varied depending on the other pitchers he was surrounded by.

Is he a Hall-of-Famer? Not likely, although he'll probably get some votes. Pettitte's 240 wins are impressive--if you like that sort of useless thing--but they aren't really hall worthy. His 3.88 career ERA along with his 3.75 career FIP are also good, especially in the tough division, but again not really HOF stuff. Looking at the numbers, Pettitte really was incredibly consistent: 10 seasons with over 200 innings, 12 years over 190, an ERA no higher than 4.70 in a given season (in 1999, the year he sort of lost it briefly) and a career strikeout to walk ratio of 2.34. Pettitte never won the Cy Young, although his 1997 season was pretty spectacular (2.88 ERA, WAR of 7.1, beaten out by Roger Clemens and his magic syringe). Speaking of syringe, it'd be a shame for Pettitte to lose any HOF votes based on his admitted use of PED's on two separate occasions while recovering from injury. Even without that admission he still probably isn't HOF bound, but hats off to a remarkable career none the less.

If you're going to put up a picture, might as well make it an awesome one

All Pettitte all the time....

Here's Fangraphs on Pettitte Retiring.

Nick Swisher says Pettitte deserves to retire. Well, thank God Nick Swisher says it's ok...

No more core 4, says Pete Botte.

Reflections from Yankees past and present on Pettitte.

Yanks Sign Freddy Garcia: Sure, Why Not? It's Not Like Anyone is Watching...

Oh wait, I'm watching, along with the biggest media market in the world. Oops. Is, "let's throw as much shit against the wall as we can and see what sticks," an effective off-season strategy for filling out a roster? The Yankees seem to be testing that, although the proof already lies in Kansas City, where they've been doing it for years with little to no success. The signing of Freddy Garcia on Tuesday is an extension of this strategy, and another firm indicator of just how much faith the team has in Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre.

For what it's worth, signing Garcia was a better move than signing Bartolo Colon, if for no other reason than it'll save the Yanks on catering. Garcia hasn't been really healthy since Ozzie Guillen finished running him into the ground in 2006, although he did manage to muster up 157 innings last year, with an ERA of 4.64 and an FIP of 4.77. He doesn't miss many bats (not that he was ever Nolan Ryan) and his ground ball rate is worse than Carl Pavano's, a starter who also doesn't miss bats but received a 2 year contract this off-season despite his injury history.

Best case scenario, Garcia gives the Yanks a 5th starter who eats innings while posting below average peripheral stats (K/BB rate, ground ball rate, HR/9 inning rate). Bill James' projected Garcia to have a slightly better 2011 than 2010, but that was before considering Garcia would land in the AL East. Don't expect Garcia to make the rotation out of spring training.

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

Fangraphs also asks whether Garcia can be helpful to the Yankees. Their answer sounds similar to mine. They also noted how Freddy's velocity has been dropping for some time now, and how through age 36 one of the pitcher's most similar to him is Bartolo Colon. Wonderful.

Here's an article about how to fix the Mets. Pretty scathing review of the Wilpon's.

The Ray's officially added nearly 40 combined IQ points to their roster.

Yanks Sign Bartolo Colon: Is it me, or is it Getting Really Fat in Here?

Unable to add significant money to their payroll after being spurned by Cliff Lee, the Yankees have decided to add significant weight to their roster, first by signing the David Copperfield of burrito eating, and now announcing a minor league deal for pitcher Bartolo Colon. Colon, a 37 year-old who hasn't played in the majors since 2009, will make $900,000 if he makes the major league roster out of spring training.

The Yankees Latest Off-Season Acquisitions

Yeah, I get that it's low-risk, but for the Yankees anything less than $10 million annually is low-risk. Not too mention if you're going to go low-risk, generally you do so with the caveat they're also "high reward." Colon is not high reward, he's high risk of heart disease.

How slimming can pinstripes be?

When you knee yourself in the gut with every pitch, it's time to try a carrot

Out of Baseball for nearly 2 years, Bartolo found another profession that suited him
(I like when Google image searches yield results like this)

So the underwhelming Yankee off-season continues and it's fair to say that if Andy Pettitte doesn't come back this rotation could be a real train wreck. I'm looking at you, A.J. Burnett.

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

The Mets are keeping R.A. Dickey around for another 2 years. I can smell the fear in Philly now.

Word is the A's are interested in Chone Figgins.

Last week, Keith Law put out his list of the top prospects in baseball. Angels Outfielder Mike Trout was number 1, Yankees catcher Jesus Montero was number 4. The first met on the list was 3rd baseman Wilmer Flores, at number 48. Here are his top ten prospects in both the Yankee and Met organizations:


New York Yankees
1. Jesus Montero, C (4)
2. Manny Banuelos, LHP (12)
3. Gary Sanchez, C (68)
4. Dellin Betances, RHP (73)
5. Andrew Brackman, RHP (88)
6. Austin Romine, C
7. Graham Stoneburner, RHP
8. Slade Heathcott, OF
9. Hector Noesi, RHP
10. Adam Warren, RHP

New York Mets
1. Wilmer Flores, SS/3B (48)
2. Matt Harvey, RHP (83)
3. Reese Havens, 2B
4. Cesar Puello, OF
5. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF
6. Darrell Ceciliani, CF
7. Lucas Duda, 1B
8. Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B
9. Juan Urbina, LHP
10. Jeurys Familia, RHP

Blue Jays Attempt to Make Me Look Dumb, Fail Because They're Canadian

(xenophobic title FTW!)


Anyway, a few days ago I wrote that the Blue Jays swindled the Angels by convincing them to take their super expensive albatross and give them a potentially useful piece in catcher Mike Napoli. However, Napoli's stay above the border didn't last long, as the Jays shipped him off to Texas to for reliever Frank Francisco.

Now truth be told, The Blue Jays do have a very promising young catcher in J.P. Arencibia, but he's only had 35 ML at-bats, so although giving him the opportunity to shine is the right move, having a good back-up catcher (one who can hit a bit, sorry Jose Molina) is probably a good idea too. On top of that, Napoli has played some 1st base and can DH in the AL. Obviously the Blue Jays didn't see it this way, or they did and were just blown away by the unquestioned POWER OF MIDDLE RELIEF PITCHING!

Yes, Francisco is a pretty good relief pitcher, with great strike-out rates, but that's all he is; he's never thrown more than 63 innings in a season, spends tons of time on the DL, couldn't hold onto the closer's role last season and oh by the way is a complete psychopath who threw a chair into a crowd during a baseball brawl a few years ago.



Also parents--or future parents--if your last name is Francisco, don't name your kid Frank; it just sounds really stupid and will lead to obvious anger management problems for the little one. Bottom line, I disagree with the Blue Jays making this move, because a catcher with some value is almost always more valuable than a reliever with some value. Besides that, if they really didn't have a place long-term for Napoli, the Jays could have always built his value and traded him to a team in contention that has a need at that position. Remember he does have power, has shown an ability to reach base consistently at times, and is under control for the next 2 seasons.

But, it appears Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos had a real hard on for Frankie Franc for some time. Ahab caught his surly, marginally impressive white whale. Huzzah!

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

Fangraphs seems more optimistic about this deal than I am. I think they've been drinking before noon again.

Here's a death match between two horrible baseball deals: The Vernon Wells trade against the Barry Zito contract. Pitting these two against each other is like something out of a Bum Fights video.

Oh Jesus, the Yankees signed Bartolo Colon. This little gem will get it's own post later on, I'm sure. Brace yourself for fat jokes.

Wandy Rodriguez got a nice contract extension from the Astros.

Stat Spotlight: wOBA

I see this one a lot, and I'll try to make it as easy as possible to comprehend. Weighted On-Base Average or wOBA is an enhancement of OPS, a stat that combines slugging and on-base percentage. It's comprehensive, in that is takes into account the complete hitting experience much in the same way OPS does. The problem with OPS, as I understand it, is that it weighs SLG and OBP equally, when in reality they are not equal (getting on-base is more important). Thus Tom Tango invented wOBA which is scaled in the same way OBP is scaled (so a good wOBA looks like a good OBP). League average for wOBA is around .335.

Here's a practical example of wOBA and it's usefulness from a 2008 Fangraphs article, featuring superstar Hanley Ramirez and not superstar Ryan Ludwick:

let’s look at Ryan Ludwick versus Hanley Ramirez. Ludwick had a .966 OPS versus a .940 OPS for Ramirez – not a huge difference, but one most people would consider significant. If you put a lot of stock in OPS, you’d probably argue that Ludwick had a better offensive season.

However, Ramirez actually had a slightly higher wOBA, .403 to .401. This is due to the fact that Ramirez posted a .400/.540 line compared to Ludwick’s .375/.591 mark. Ramirez’s 25 point advantage in OBP was slightly more valuable than Ludwick’s 51 point advantage in SLG, and wOBA reflects this.

So from now on I'll try and use wOBA more often. All encompassing stats=good.

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

Jason Hammel Signed a 2-year deal with the Rockies.

Almost perfect but not even league average pitcher Armando Galarraga is heading to the Diamondbacks.

Yesterday we mocked the foolish trade the Angels made in acquiring Vernon Wells. Here's an article by Dave Cameron at Fangraphs about what he would have to do earn that contract of his.

Not much else, just one of those days.

Weekend Round-Up: Angels Trade for Terrible Contract

(Yeah I know, some of this didn't happen over the weekend. But I wasn't writing about it, so it's like it didn't happen until the weekend--I am that powerful) The Angels went into the off-season with some money to burn, hoping they could sign a big bat or maybe get in on Cliff Lee, although that was always a long shot. At one point, they fancied themselves the front-runner to land third baseman Adrian Beltre, but they whiffed. All dressed up and nowhere to go, the Angels turned their attention to the trade market, found a suitable trade partner in Toronto and landed Vernon Wells. On the surface, a player like Wells sounds good for the Angels. He rebounded nicely in 2010 from some down years in the power department, hitting 31 home runs and Slugging .515 with an ISO score of .242. But everyone in Toronto had a surge in power last year, and for a slugging right hander Wells never offered much in the on-base department (career .329 OBP). So as a hitter he's limited, but what about his defense? Once a slightly above average fielder, Wells has had well below average UZR scores the last 3 seasons in center, and at age 32, those scores probably won't get better anytime soon. Couple that with the presence of Peter Bourjos and Wells seems to be fixing for a permanent move to a corner outfield spot, where his bat no longer profiles as above average. Ok, Ok so he's isn't all-star caliber, but a useful player for the right pri....OH MY GOD HE'S OWED $86 MILLION OVER THE NEXT 4 SEASONS! 86 million, for a player who showed obvious decline before last season, covering his ages 32-35 seasons. Gulp.

In return, the Blue Jays received C Mike Napoli and OF Juan Rivera. In Rivera, the Jays acquire an overpaid (5.25 Mill. for 2011) 4th outfielder who shows marginal to bad defensive skills with a little bit of pop. Mostly a salary dump on the part of the Angels, laughable considering the contract they added. Napoli is a different story. Toronto will have control of him for 2 more seasons at varying arbitration prices (this year he's asked for $6.1 million, the Angels countered with $5.3 mill so he'll get something in that window). Even if Napoli wins his arbitration case, the combined salaries of the 2 players Toronto received will still be nearly $12 million less than what they would have paid Wells in 2011. Napoli has played in parts of 5 seasons at the major league level, but has only recorded more than 500 plate appearances once, in 2010. Sporadic play makes assessment a bit harder, but Napoli has consistently shown good power for a catcher and solid on-base skills, even if he only hits around .250. His worst season was last year, when he only had a .316 on-base percentage but maintained good power with a .233 ISO. Perhaps the increased workload negatively affected performance, something that wouldn't be as big a concern going forward. Napoli is only 29, isn't too expensive and is an upgrade over "all-star" John Buck. Win for the Blue Jays.

Apparently Mike Scioscia didn't really love Mike Napoli.

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

The Rays have reunited Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon. Platoon's are fine in a pinch for positional players, but carrying 2 guys around to platoon DH, without much of a defensive return seems like overkill. Yeah, Damon can still run down balls in the corner outfield, but my god his arm is terrible.

Royals signed Billy Butler to a 4 year extension. This is a good move for The Royals, especially with the crop of talented you guys it has in the farm system. The Royals could become contenders for the AL central by 2013.

Yanks Hope Advances in Time Travel Will Vindicate Andruw Jones Signing

I joked about this a few days ago, but the bloated corpse of Andruw Jones is officially Bronx bound. I mock Andruw, and rightly so, considering what he once was (a guy who hit 51 home runs in a season) and what he is now (fat). A brief history lesson: Jones slept through his contract year with the Braves in 2007, posting a .222/.311/.413 line, but still managed to trick the Dodgers--with what I can only assume were funhouse mirrors--into giving him a nice 2 year, $36 million dollar contract that off-season. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, Jones' parlor tricks never translated to on the field success, and after a year of .158/.256/.249 The Dodgers dumped him.

His greatest trick was when he'd make the whole burrito disappear
Since then Jones has been a part-time player, never registering more than 331 plate appearances in a season, with mixed results. No, he's not as bad as he was in L.A., and he showed he still has some pop (.255 ISO in 2010). But he'll probably never hit for an average above .240 again, and his splits suggest he's more effective against lefties than righties. On defense, Jones is a shell of his former self, but isn't so run down that he's a liability. Once one of the best center fielders in the game (UZR score one year of 26, that's pretty awesome) Jones' UZR has dropped to around league average, and is even more tenuous considering his propensity to not work out.

At this point, Andruw Jones is best suited for the role he'll have with the Yankees, a 4th outfielder, assuming he tries hard, which is not a guarantee. This deal won't end up being a home-run for the Yankees, as the Andruw Jones of 2006 isn't coming back, and the effortless play in the outfield he was once known for now will come across more lackadaisical than anything when he isn't running balls down in the gaps. For $2 million, the Yankees aren't taking much of a financial risk, and if you can overlook a lot for some extra pop, you may enjoy Andruw. But don't be surprised if he doesn't finish the year in the Bronx.

Bleacher Report has the Andruw Jones Guide to Ruining a Career.

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The Rays are talking to Johnny Damon about being their DH. Yeah, he can still get on-base some, but there isn't much else going on there.

Manny Ramirez and Vlad Guerrero may have homes soon too. I should have named this column, "The Barely Walking Dead." Really, these guys are only suited for DH roles at this point. If only there were an article discussing these remaining DH options....Huzzah!

Who is the most valuable player in baseball? Fangraphs seeks answers. The answer isn't exactly shocking, but the exclusion of Yuniesky Betancourt from the discussion was!

Remember when that player kicked that catcher pre-fight with the pitcher? Does that make sense? well, here's a link with a video of it.

Yankee Icon Carl Pavano Re-signs With Twins

The Twins reaches a 2-year, $16.5 million deal with Carl Pavano, he of the hipster mustache movement and a notable former bust with the Yankees. Funnily enough, word is the Yankees were in on Pavano before this deal was made, which should tell you a little something about the possibility of Sergio Mitre being a 5th starter in the AL East. Assuming health (HA!) the deal is, well, what it is: about $8 million annually for an innings eating sinkerballer who projects to have an ERA and FIP a little above 4. A front of the rotation ace he is not, but you can certainly do worse than Pavano, and since the Twins should find themselves in contention for the Central crown this season, bringing Pavano back is a fine move. There is obvious risk here for the Twins beyond the fact that Pavano can injury himself answering the phone. He just turned 35 and will be 36 when the contract expires, hardly a pitcher's peak performance years (generally speaking). The Twins have done a fabulous job of growing into a mid-market team from a small market club, and their recent expansion of payroll is admirable. But the Twins aren't the Yankees, and if Pavano goes down tomorrow with an infected naval ring piercing and doesn't return for 2 seasons-as he is capable of doing- the Twins will not have the budget flexibility to replace him to the tune of $8 million annually.

Fangraphs compares Pavano to Jake Westbrook, and how they're basically the same thing. It is interesting that conventional wisdom said Pavano would land the bigger deal based on nothing in particular.

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The Yankee bullpen is quite expensive. If the idea is to compensate for not having a 4th or 5th starter by shortening games to 6 innings, color me skeptical. 3 situational lefties, who may face 2 batters or less with each appearance, making a total of $9.2 million? Who is your bullpen innings eater, Joba?

The Dodgers show how not to create a platoon.

The Padres signed Chad Qualls, and in related news this blog struggled with whether or not that was actual news worthy of posting.

Happy belated birthday to the mustache Carl Pavano's mustache wishes it could be, but can't because true mustache greatness is not born of irony.

Mike Pelfrey is your 2011 Mets opening day starter. If Pelfrey were on the Phillies his start would be skipped till mid-April due to the early season schedule. Just sayin'.

Here's a look at the 2011 MLB Draft's first round order. As of now, the name to know is Anthony Rendon.

Autonomy is to Brian Cashman as Sanity is to Milton Bradley

Apparently, Brian Cashman didn't think highly of the move his organization made by signing Rafael Soriano. Cashman made this clear to the media, at the press conference announcing the signing.
Well, that's just super. Word is the Yankee front office believed it has a duty, passed down from God himself, to spend copious amounts of money every off-season regardless of talent, history or common sense. If any other team in baseball pulled a move like this, a tar and feathering at a public forum would be in order.

In other news, board game tycoon turned psychotic DH Milton Bradley was arrested for making threats towards an unidentified woman. Craig Calcaterra looks into whether or not the Mariners can void Bradley's contract, here. Unless this story turns out to be false, I think it's become quite clear that Bradley just isn't psychologically capable of handling a position on a major league roster.

More Randomness...

Royals pitcher Gil Meche is calling it quits after more shoulder troubles. Meche had some talent but injuries and inconsistency stunted any chance of real stardom. That being said, Gil got paid and big-time. Baseball has this funny economic cycle that sees it's "marquee" free agents get paid anywhere from a ton of money to a shit ton of money, depending on the year. Meche had 2 things working for him when he signed that deal; he hit the market at the right time and he was a marginal starter who was relatively young and had potential without the actual history of success. Often times those who fit that profile receive deals beyond their worth (cough::JARET WRIGHT::cough). Anyway, good for Gil.

Here's a nice article about the faultiness of ERA. And you can supplement that with MY post about FIP from last season. Come on, you know you want to...

Hardball Times has 5 winning moves of the off-season. My favorite part of the article: Yunieksy Betancourt's name in the title of number 4 put in parenthesis, then he isn't even discussed in the trade evaluation. The guy is a glorified sandbag.

What? A Relaunch? At a Time Like This?

Yes. New season, new commitment to write as much as possible before flaming out. Huzzah! So very many things have happened since the last post: Giants win the World Series, Cliff Lee goes back to Philly, The Red Sox retooled and the Yankees are hot on the trail of Andruw Jones (the sound of one hand clapping).

In the coming weeks, posts will remain sporadic until spring training, when God willing we'll be able to put together previews for each division (gotta wait till the rosters are at least semi-formed before that can happen). So until our own content is available, enjoy other people's content, through the magic of the internet!

Apparently, Brian Cashman didn't care much for the Rafael Soriano deal. 35 million for a set-up man is only reasonable in Yankeeland, and even then it's not reasonable. In signing Soriano, the Yankees also surrendered their first round draft pick to the Rays, who have a pretty good history of turning those picks into valuable pieces.

Joey Votto got a nice extension from the Reds. The deal will cover him through his age 30 season, encompassing what is generally considered a player's peak years.

Albert Pujols has set a deadline for his contract extension. If a new deal isn't in place by spring training, Pujols says he'll test free agency next winter.

The Mets are on the verge of signing Chris Young. Reclamation projects like this make sense for the Mets right now; they have a spacious ballpark that can yield positive results for a fly ball pitcher like Young and if they can keep him healthy, he could become trade bait by July.

Fangraphs asks, What is Tom Gorzellany? The answer: confusing, like an original movie idea from Christopher Nolan.

Here's a video of Carlos Pena signing a taco for a fan. You are a better person for watching it.

Who will be this year's Jose Bautista? Lewie Pollis has a suggestion.