2011 Mets: Let the Fire Sale Begin

This point may be moot, due to a billion-dollar ponzi scheme (I'm still rooting for a, "Bernie Madoff with my team's payroll and all I got was this lousy t-shirt" promotional day) but if there is a choice for the Mets between going for it or rebuilding, they should rebuild. In fact, the Mets should have started the rebuilding process at least a season ago, when their roster was a combination of a few expensive top level talents, back-up catchers, and nothing. Instead, then GM Omar Minaya decided the best way to keep his job was to double down, sign Jason Bay and hope for the best. It didn't work. Now there's a new regime in town left to deal with a bloated payroll and the juggernaut that will be the Phillies. Here are 5 moves the Mets should make as soon as possible.

5) Cut Oliver Perez

He's useless. He's been useless for the duration of his major league career and there's no reason to believe he will turn it around when he's about to turn 30. Perez's K/BB ratio the last 2 seasons was absolutely abysmal, and his bloated ERA over that time matched his bloated FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) so it's not like he's been unlucky. Perez has stolen $24 million from the Mets the last 2 season and hasn't even been above replacement level (WAR of -1.1 in 2010) all the while his velocity has dropped and his attitude has been terrible (he refused to go to the minors to straighten himself out, preferring instead to make sure he brought the major league club down and not the single-A affiliate). New Met GM Sandy Alderson is delusional if he really thinks Perez can crack the rotation out of camp, and he simply won't perform well enough at the big league level to warrant any trade interest. Perez is scheduled to make another $12 million this season before his God-awful contract mercifully ends, so the Mets will try everything to avoid simply cutting him and eating the money. But in the end they won't find a taker via trade, and because keeping him around will be to the detriment of the team, they'll dump him.

4) Trade/Cut Luis Castillo

Another dumb contract that never had a chance to be worthwhile, Castillo is also in the final year of a 4-year deal that will pay him $6 million in 2011. He's 35, has as much pop as a Barry Manilow Album, and hasn't played above replacement level defense since 2007 (with '08 and '09 being particularly terrible defensive years). Castillo may still swipe a few bags and he gets on base, but at some point you hit that threshold where the slugging is so inept it nullifies some of the positive OBP effect--Castillo has hit said threshold. If the Mets do move him they'll have to take on some, if not most, of that salary which is still more ideal than cutting him and taking it all on for no return. The Mets are trying rule 5 pick Brad Emaus out at second along with Daniel Murphy, so Castillo's presence only serves to block 2 younger players with some upside. Dump him.

3) Send Jenrry Mejia back down to the minors/convert to starter

I don't know if you could tell by now, but in my opinion the words "win now" should be just below the words "solid investment opportunity" on the list of things the Mets shouldn't be saying in 2011. Mejia has number 1 starter stuff, but he was hastily thrown onto the Major League roster last year because Jerry Manuel really needed him as a set-up man for the imaginary playoff run they were going to make. All told in 2010, Mejia threw 39 innings and kept his head above water; not bad for a 20 year-old but the potential is there for much more. Yes, he lost a year of development to this dumb experiment, but he's still young and was hardly overworked last year. The bottom of the NL East need not require a 21 year-old floundering in the starting rotation. Send him down.

2) Trade Carlos Beltran

The ultimate display of rebuilding, moving Beltran is no small order; he's set to make $18.5 million this year and has a full no trade clause (Cot's Baseball Contracts is an awesome, awesome site). That being said, it's the right thing to do, even if it means eating some of the contract. Beltran has battled injuries the last 2 years but has performed when healthy--3.1 WAR in 2009 despite only playing in 81 games--and in his last full season of play he was downright dynamic with a .284/.376/.500 line and a 7.1 WAR. His fielding during non-injury plagued seasons is usually average to good and his speed score, while declining with age, hasn't dropped entirely off the face of the map. There's still a lot of value here and I'd imagine, it being a contract year, he'll look to regain that MVP type form from years past before hitting free agency (yeah, I know it's a contract year for Perez and Castillo too, but those are lost causes no matter what). In terms of the full no trade, would Beltran really refuse the chance to play for a team in contention? The Mets should pick the right moment and sell high here.

1) David Wright or Jose Reyes- Pick one, move the other

I have long advocated this move for the Mets, but the idea is generally received poorly by Met fans who still have hard-ons for years past. Let's look at this rationally and consider the facts: As they're currently constructed, the Mets are not contenders and their farm system doesn't have any top-tier talent a hop, skip or jump away from the majors to help. Their payroll is an amorphous blob of terrible, with some of the biggest contracts going to players who blow (Ollie and Louie) players who underperformed terribly last year (Bay, Reyes) players who are hurt and will miss significant time in 2011 (Santana) and players who beat their father-in-law's (K-Rod). Wright and Reyes are, in terms of age, heading into the prime of their careers-Wright will be 29 this year, Reyes will turn 28 mid-season. Both are reasonably priced for their respective values, with Wright being worth more right now in terms of production and money-owed. Both players would fetch impressive packages of prospects, especially if Reyes rebounds this season to post numbers close to his 2008 season when he was a 6.0 WAR player. On top of all that, the Mets probably aren't just a year away from the playoff hunt, this mess will take a bit longer to cleanup. If it were up to me, I'd hope Reyes rebounds in the first few months of '11 and then shop him like there's no tomorrow. Wright's deal is a bit more cumbersome to move, but his age and productivity will make him attractive no matter what. Either way, it's time the Mets manned up and did what was best for the future, because there really isn't any present anyway.

Are the Yankees Underdogs?

A point-counterpoint from ESPN today about whether or not we can classify the Yankees as underdogs heading into the season. I'm not entirely sure what definition of underdog ESPN is using, but if it's...

–noun

1.

a person who is expected to lose in a contest or conflict.

then no, the Yankees are not underdogs. PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus system of projecting player and team performance through advanced metrics, has the Yanks winning 91 games- enough to win the wild card but 1 game worse than the Red Sox for the division. Of course, PECOTA isn't the be all and end all of baseball and, really, predicting how a division will ultimately fare is pretty impossible considering all of the different variables that will affect teams (injuries, trades, under/over performance of players, etc.). But because it's fun to predict (as I'll be doing here shortly) we fans do it, and I doubt you'll find a prediction that has the Yankees finishing outside of wild card contention. Is this a strong Yankee team compared to previous seasons? No, their pitching staff has holes so big not even Bartolo Colon's fat ass can fill them, and they're old. That being said, they're still going to score runs (they led the league in runs scored last year with 7 of their 9 main hitters under-performing) and, optimistically, the bullpen may shorten enough games to the point that you only need a mediocre performance from a starter that only lasts 5 innings for a win.

The AL East may be more wide open than usual this year, unless the Red Sox run away with things, which is a possibility. If you want to topple the mighty Yankees, this is the year to do it. Too bad the Orioles and Jays are still a few years away. The Rays lost Carl Crawford, but have enough organizational depth to make life difficult for both Boston and New York. I have no problem calling a team other than the Yankees the favorites, but it's a stretch to call them underdogs.

More Baseball

Adam Wainwright may have a significant elbow injury. Huge, gigantic blow to the Cardinals. Wainwright has become one of the best starters in baseball the last couple of seasons, with very good K/BB ratio's, sterling ERA's and a WAR of 5.7 or better. This could reshape the entire division.

ChiSox GM Kenny Williams says $30 million annually for 1 player is 'asinine.' There are some stats out there that are able to affix exact dollar amounts to player performance that I'm not well versed in, so without that knowledge I can't definitively say if he's right or wrong. That being said, I think he's probably right, at least to a certain degree. Albert Pujols' performance may be worth $30 million dollars annually, but is it worth it for the Pirates to pay that price?

I've read a lot of articles saying the Jose Bautista deal was good for both the player and the Blue Jays, but I'm still skeptical. None of the articles seem overly concerned with the fact that Bautista is on the down side of 30, and they all seem happy to gloss over the lack of a track record or the fact that every Blue Jay regular had a surge in power last season.

Joba's Weight Gain Highlights Fattest Off-Season in Yankee History

Yeah, I know CC Sabathia lost 25 pounds this off-season by cutting out Cap'n Crunch, that he ate daily, BY THE BOX (wanna know how unhealthy that shit is? on the FAQ page of their website, it asks why should kids and adults eat Cap'n Crunch, and their answer is that breakfast is important and cereal is easy for busy parents to make. When your reasoning is better suited for the McDonald's drive-thru window than your pure sugar dingleberries, your product isn't healthy).

They make no illusions about their unhealthiness-even the Cap'n himself is a fat fuck, and he's eating his own cereal.

Whatever weight Sabathia lost, apparently Joba Chamberlain found, and the concerns about his performance have gotten underway even earlier than they usually do because of it. I'm not sure what to do with Chamberlain anymore; I think the Yankees mishandled transitioning him from reliever to starter with their nonsensical innings cap that made his role fluctuate too often. The Yankee stance is that Chamberlain's stuff has been diminished following a 2008 shoulder injury in Texas, but I hadn't heard that excuse until today. What Chamberlain's upside is now is anyone's guess. At one time he had number 1 starter potential, with a chance for 4 plus pitches (fastball, curveball, slider, change) but his velocity is down from '07-'08 and it hasn't really rebounded. I'm afraid Joba is dangerously close to the designation of a player who could "use a change of scenery," a pity considering all the potential, and frankly his performance. Chamberlain mostly plays the role of goat in New York now, but he continues to post very good strikeout rates despite the lost velocity and his FIP outperformed his ERA by almost a run and a half last year. Chamberlain isn't a lost cause (yet) and I still think he has value either through performance or trade.

Contract Talk

The Brewers gave Rickie Weeks a 4-year, $38.5 million deal despite a career plagued by injuries and sometimes erratic performance. Weeks had a great 2010 and is only 29, so if he can reproduce those numbers for the duration of the deal, it'll probably be a good investment for the Brewers. The deal ends just after a player's peak years, so if you're going to pay Weeks big, now is the time to do it.

More contract new out of Blue Jays camp where sources are saying the team is close to giving Jose Bautista a 5-year, $65 million dollar extension following a season in which he hit more home runs than he had hit in his 3 previous seasons combined. Bautista is one of the more interesting players to watch this year, if only to see if his 2010 was the flash in the pan it looks like. Prior to 2010 Bautista never slugged more than .420 but exceeded that by nearly 200 points (.617!) last year. He still didn't hit for average, and probably never will, but he does get on-base. At 30 years old this contract doesn't look good, even if I assume he somehow maintains this power well into hid mid-30's, which he most likely will not do. Hell, I'll be surprised if he maintains this power going into this season. Jose Bautista's story is a nice one, but it smells a lot more like Brady Anderson than Sammy Sosa.

And finally on the contract front, the Albert Pujols deadline came and went without an agreement on a new deal, meaning Pujols will become a free agent after this season. I can't blame the Cardinals considering the numbers being thrown around (10-years, $300 million) but they can be blamed for giving Matt Holliday a bad contract that may restrict some of their financial flexibility here. If the Alex Rodriguez deal is the benchmark, it shouldn't be; it was a dumb deal when the Rangers gave him $252 million and dumber for the Yankees to go up to $275 million. But at the end of the day the Yankees can afford quarter billion dollar plus blunders, no other team can. If the Cards give Pujols that type of deal and he gets hurt, they'll be crippled financially for a decade. Stay tuned.

Smell That? Smells Like Pitchers and Catchers Reporting...

Ah yes, the day has come. ESPN is actually live updating the first day of spring training, keeping us up to date on all the important happenings like:

	AndrewMarchand: Phil Hughes again lived at home with his parents this offseason.#espnst [via Twitter]

	Gordon Edes: Bobby Jenks met with media yesterday, and made it clear he had no interest whatsoever in revisiting the Twitter beating he took from Oney Guillen, the son of the White Sox manager, who dished a lot of personal stuff about Jenks in his tweets.

	AndrewMarchand: Hey, it is only 15 degrees warmer here in Tampa (64) compared to the Bronx. #notcomplainingjustsaying #espnst [via Twitter]

Wow!

As you can see, not much actually happens today other than physicals and blowing tremendous amounts of smoke up people's asses. But there was one interesting piece of information: CC Sabathia wouldn't close the door on opting out of his contract. Many people don't know about the opt-out clause Sabathia was given when he signed his mega-deal, thrown in as a safeguard in case he didn't enjoy New York (remember, he wanted all along to go to a west coast team and play near home, but he took the money in New York).

Sabathia has said he wants to pitch till he's 40, and his current deal takes him through his age 35 season. If he opted out, would he be able to cover more years on the back-end at a premium price? He certainly isn't going to find more dollars per year anywhere else, but would the Yankees feel too spurned by Sabathia to negotiate more years, after already making a huge 7 year investment? History suggests that won't be the case--Alex Rodriguez wasn't exactly punished, was he--but it's something Sabathia will have to consider before making any decisions. Perhaps the temptation of playing out west will be too great this time around, now that Sabathia has his ring. How ironic it would be; not often do you hear about players using the organization then tossing them aside when they're done with them.

Usually this is where I'd make a fat joke with regards to the "pitch till age 40" thing, but it's not like he won't be able to do it fat, he's been doing it fat for years!

Of course all of that is about a million steps away from where we are now- spring training, Huzzah!

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

The Cards have till noon Wednesday to work out a contract extension for Albert Pujols. If nothing is agreed to by then, negotiations shut down till after the season, when Pujols has said he will test free agency.

Terry Collins wants to prove he's a new man with the Mets, and by new man, they mean not a marginal manager.

Andy Pettitte Retires: Great Yankee, Good Pitcher, Not Quite a Hall of Famer

My approach to analyzing the Yankees' off-season was to assume Andy Pettitte would be retiring, which became official today. Pettitte is beloved by Yankee fans and deservedly so, considering the role he played in winning 5 titles in a 13 year Yankee career. Pettitte's numbers were always good, usually never great, but his consistency is remarkable considering all the time spent in the AL East. Some have called Pettitte the greatest number 3 starter of his generation; others would say he was clearly a number 1 at different points in his career, even if the numbers suggest he wasn't an "ace." I say why not split the difference and call Pettitte a very good number 2 starter, who's role varied depending on the other pitchers he was surrounded by.

Is he a Hall-of-Famer? Not likely, although he'll probably get some votes. Pettitte's 240 wins are impressive--if you like that sort of useless thing--but they aren't really hall worthy. His 3.88 career ERA along with his 3.75 career FIP are also good, especially in the tough division, but again not really HOF stuff. Looking at the numbers, Pettitte really was incredibly consistent: 10 seasons with over 200 innings, 12 years over 190, an ERA no higher than 4.70 in a given season (in 1999, the year he sort of lost it briefly) and a career strikeout to walk ratio of 2.34. Pettitte never won the Cy Young, although his 1997 season was pretty spectacular (2.88 ERA, WAR of 7.1, beaten out by Roger Clemens and his magic syringe). Speaking of syringe, it'd be a shame for Pettitte to lose any HOF votes based on his admitted use of PED's on two separate occasions while recovering from injury. Even without that admission he still probably isn't HOF bound, but hats off to a remarkable career none the less.

If you're going to put up a picture, might as well make it an awesome one

All Pettitte all the time....

Here's Fangraphs on Pettitte Retiring.

Nick Swisher says Pettitte deserves to retire. Well, thank God Nick Swisher says it's ok...

No more core 4, says Pete Botte.

Reflections from Yankees past and present on Pettitte.

Yanks Sign Freddy Garcia: Sure, Why Not? It's Not Like Anyone is Watching...

Oh wait, I'm watching, along with the biggest media market in the world. Oops. Is, "let's throw as much shit against the wall as we can and see what sticks," an effective off-season strategy for filling out a roster? The Yankees seem to be testing that, although the proof already lies in Kansas City, where they've been doing it for years with little to no success. The signing of Freddy Garcia on Tuesday is an extension of this strategy, and another firm indicator of just how much faith the team has in Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre.

For what it's worth, signing Garcia was a better move than signing Bartolo Colon, if for no other reason than it'll save the Yanks on catering. Garcia hasn't been really healthy since Ozzie Guillen finished running him into the ground in 2006, although he did manage to muster up 157 innings last year, with an ERA of 4.64 and an FIP of 4.77. He doesn't miss many bats (not that he was ever Nolan Ryan) and his ground ball rate is worse than Carl Pavano's, a starter who also doesn't miss bats but received a 2 year contract this off-season despite his injury history.

Best case scenario, Garcia gives the Yanks a 5th starter who eats innings while posting below average peripheral stats (K/BB rate, ground ball rate, HR/9 inning rate). Bill James' projected Garcia to have a slightly better 2011 than 2010, but that was before considering Garcia would land in the AL East. Don't expect Garcia to make the rotation out of spring training.

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

Fangraphs also asks whether Garcia can be helpful to the Yankees. Their answer sounds similar to mine. They also noted how Freddy's velocity has been dropping for some time now, and how through age 36 one of the pitcher's most similar to him is Bartolo Colon. Wonderful.

Here's an article about how to fix the Mets. Pretty scathing review of the Wilpon's.

The Ray's officially added nearly 40 combined IQ points to their roster.