Saber Dummies

Baltimore Orioles Catcher Matt Wieters: Still Better Than Sliced Bread?

2011-03-02T21:18:00.001-05:00

Long suffering Oriole fans have had to deal with an inordinate amount of losing over the last decade, brought about by some avoidable (poor management) and unavoidable (being collateral damage in the Yankee-Red Sox 100 years war) circumstances.

After a failed early decade spending spree, the Orioles brain trust finally determined the only way to compete effectively in the AL East was to build through the minors, and with that came 2007 first-round pickMatt Wieters. Now while it is true, Wieters once framed a pitch so perfectly it counted as two strikes (it's a Matt Wieters Fact, and everything on the Internet is true) his sublime greatness has yet to translate to solid production at the major league level. Wieters is still young (he'll turn 25 in May) so it's not time to hit the panic button, but there are some red flags, especially in terms of power and selectivity.

First, the power outage. Wieters' ISO score has dropped consistently since Double-A, from an impressive .260 to .128 in 2010, putting him just above Kurt Suzuki (.123) and just below Joe Mauer (.141) among major league catchers with at least 400 plate appearances. The presence of Mauer here is deceptive; although he had a big power year in 2009, his 2010 score was more in line with career averages, as Mauer is known more for being a great hitter than a great power hitter. Wieters' reputation throughout college and the minors was that of a power hitter, so the low ISO scores over 887 major league plate appearances are cause for alarm.

The second big problem here is the K/BB ratio. A high K percentage isn't an anomaly among power hitters, and if Wieters were in fact hitting for power, no one would care that he strikes out over 20 percent of the time. The problem is he isn't. Of qualifying catchers (as I've determined qualifying, over 400 PA) Wieters is sixth highest in K percentage (21.1 percent) but 11th in ISO—no other catcher who struck out over 20 percent of the time had an ISO below .158.

J. Meric/Getty Images

Compounding the strikeout problem is the walk rate: 9.4 percent in 2010, good for sixth among qualifying catchers, but not good enough to make up for the strikeouts. As a result, Wieters sported a 0.50 BB/K ratio, good for 12th best in the league, and his unusually low batting average in 2010 dropped his on-base percentage to .319.

Overall, it's easy to just say Wieters had a down year, but eventually the hype won't mask the performance. Until the manReggie Jackson refers to as "Mr. Whenever the Hell He Wants" proves he can do what he did in Double-A at the major league level, the questions will remain. I'm still bullish on Wieters for now, but another season of being out-slugged by Ryan Doumit will bring an end to that.

The saving grace for O's fans may be that all of Baltimore's top-level prospects seemed to have underperformed for their expectations, so perhaps the problem had to do with the pre-Buck Showalter regime. Whatever the case may be, 2011 is fixing to be a big year in Baltimore.

2011 Mets: Let the Fire Sale Begin

2011-02-24T21:42:00.029-05:00

This point may be moot, due to a billion-dollar ponzi scheme (I'm still rooting for a, "Bernie Madoff with my team's payroll and all I got was this lousy t-shirt" promotional day) but if there is a choice for the Mets between going for it or rebuilding, they should rebuild. In fact, the Mets should have started the rebuilding process at least a season ago, when their roster was a combination of a few expensive top level talents, back-up catchers, and nothing. Instead, then GM Omar Minaya decided the best way to keep his job was to double down, sign Jason Bay and hope for the best. It didn't work. Now there's a new regime in town left to deal with a bloated payroll and the juggernaut that will be the Phillies. Here are 5 moves the Mets should make as soon as possible.

5) Cut Oliver Perez

He's useless. He's been useless for the duration of his major league career and there's no reason to believe he will turn it around when he's about to turn 30. Perez's K/BB ratio the last 2 seasons was absolutely abysmal, and his bloated ERA over that time matched his bloated FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) so it's not like he's been unlucky. Perez has stolen $24 million from the Mets the last 2 season and hasn't even been above replacement level (WAR of -1.1 in 2010) all the while his velocity has dropped and his attitude has been terrible (he refused to go to the minors to straighten himself out, preferring instead to make sure he brought the major league club down and not the single-A affiliate). New Met GM Sandy Alderson is delusional if he really thinks Perez can crack the rotation out of camp, and he simply won't perform well enough at the big league level to warrant any trade interest. Perez is scheduled to make another $12 million this season before his God-awful contract mercifully ends, so the Mets will try everything to avoid simply cutting him and eating the money. But in the end they won't find a taker via trade, and because keeping him around will be to the detriment of the team, they'll dump him.

4) Trade/Cut Luis Castillo

Another dumb contract that never had a chance to be worthwhile, Castillo is also in the final year of a 4-year deal that will pay him $6 million in 2011. He's 35, has as much pop as a Barry Manilow Album, and hasn't played above replacement level defense since 2007 (with '08 and '09 being particularly terrible defensive years). Castillo may still swipe a few bags and he gets on base, but at some point you hit that threshold where the slugging is so inept it nullifies some of the positive OBP effect--Castillo has hit said threshold. If the Mets do move him they'll have to take on some, if not most, of that salary which is still more ideal than cutting him and taking it all on for no return. The Mets are trying rule 5 pick Brad Emaus out at second along with Daniel Murphy, so Castillo's presence only serves to block 2 younger players with some upside. Dump him.

3) Send Jenrry Mejia back down to the minors/convert to starter

I don't know if you could tell by now, but in my opinion the words "win now" should be just below the words "solid investment opportunity" on the list of things the Mets shouldn't be saying in 2011. Mejia has number 1 starter stuff, but he was hastily thrown onto the Major League roster last year because Jerry Manuel really needed him as a set-up man for the imaginary playoff run they were going to make. All told in 2010, Mejia threw 39 innings and kept his head above water; not bad for a 20 year-old but the potential is there for much more. Yes, he lost a year of development to this dumb experiment, but he's still young and was hardly overworked last year. The bottom of the NL East need not require a 21 year-old floundering in the starting rotation. Send him down.

2) Trade Carlos Beltran

The ultimate display of rebuilding, moving Beltran is no small order; he's set to make $18.5 million this year and has a full no trade clause (Cot's Baseball Contracts is an awesome, awesome site). That being said, it's the right thing to do, even if it means eating some of the contract. Beltran has battled injuries the last 2 years but has performed when healthy--3.1 WAR in 2009 despite only playing in 81 games--and in his last full season of play he was downright dynamic with a .284/.376/.500 line and a 7.1 WAR. His fielding during non-injury plagued seasons is usually average to good and his speed score, while declining with age, hasn't dropped entirely off the face of the map. There's still a lot of value here and I'd imagine, it being a contract year, he'll look to regain that MVP type form from years past before hitting free agency (yeah, I know it's a contract year for Perez and Castillo too, but those are lost causes no matter what). In terms of the full no trade, would Beltran really refuse the chance to play for a team in contention? The Mets should pick the right moment and sell high here.

1) David Wright or Jose Reyes- Pick one, move the other

I have long advocated this move for the Mets, but the idea is generally received poorly by Met fans who still have hard-ons for years past. Let's look at this rationally and consider the facts: As they're currently constructed, the Mets are not contenders and their farm system doesn't have any top-tier talent a hop, skip or jump away from the majors to help. Their payroll is an amorphous blob of terrible, with some of the biggest contracts going to players who blow (Ollie and Louie) players who underperformed terribly last year (Bay, Reyes) players who are hurt and will miss significant time in 2011 (Santana) and players who beat their father-in-law's (K-Rod). Wright and Reyes are, in terms of age, heading into the prime of their careers-Wright will be 29 this year, Reyes will turn 28 mid-season. Both are reasonably priced for their respective values, with Wright being worth more right now in terms of production and money-owed. Both players would fetch impressive packages of prospects, especially if Reyes rebounds this season to post numbers close to his 2008 season when he was a 6.0 WAR player. On top of all that, the Mets probably aren't just a year away from the playoff hunt, this mess will take a bit longer to cleanup. If it were up to me, I'd hope Reyes rebounds in the first few months of '11 and then shop him like there's no tomorrow. Wright's deal is a bit more cumbersome to move, but his age and productivity will make him attractive no matter what. Either way, it's time the Mets manned up and did what was best for the future, because there really isn't any present anyway.

Are the Yankees Underdogs?

2011-02-23T10:05:00.011-05:00

A point-counterpoint from ESPN today about whether or not we can classify the Yankees as underdogs heading into the season. I'm not entirely sure what definition of underdog ESPN is using, but if it's...

–noun
1.
a person who is expected to lose in a contest or conflict.

then no, the Yankees are not underdogs. PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus system of projecting player and team performance through advanced metrics, has the Yanks winning 91 games- enough to win the wild card but 1 game worse than the Red Sox for the division. Of course, PECOTA isn't the be all and end all of baseball and, really, predicting how a division will ultimately fare is pretty impossible considering all of the different variables that will affect teams (injuries, trades, under/over performance of players, etc.). But because it's fun to predict (as I'll be doing here shortly) we fans do it, and I doubt you'll find a prediction that has the Yankees finishing outside of wild card contention. Is this a strong Yankee team compared to previous seasons? No, their pitching staff has holes so big not even Bartolo Colon's fat ass can fill them, and they're old. That being said, they're still going to score runs (they led the league in runs scored last year with 7 of their 9 main hitters under-performing) and, optimistically, the bullpen may shorten enough games to the point that you only need a mediocre performance from a starter that only lasts 5 innings for a win.

The AL East may be more wide open than usual this year, unless the Red Sox run away with things, which is a possibility. If you want to topple the mighty Yankees, this is the year to do it. Too bad the Orioles and Jays are still a few years away. The Rays lost Carl Crawford, but have enough organizational depth to make life difficult for both Boston and New York. I have no problem calling a team other than the Yankees the favorites, but it's a stretch to call them underdogs.

More Baseball

Adam Wainwright may have a significant elbow injury. Huge, gigantic blow to the Cardinals. Wainwright has become one of the best starters in baseball the last couple of seasons, with very good K/BB ratio's, sterling ERA's and a WAR of 5.7 or better. This could reshape the entire division.

ChiSox GM Kenny Williams says $30 million annually for 1 player is 'asinine.' There are some stats out there that are able to affix exact dollar amounts to player performance that I'm not well versed in, so without that knowledge I can't definitively say if he's right or wrong. That being said, I think he's probably right, at least to a certain degree. Albert Pujols' performance may be worth $30 million dollars annually, but is it worth it for the Pirates to pay that price?

I've read a lot of articles saying the Jose Bautista deal was good for both the player and the Blue Jays, but I'm still skeptical. None of the articles seem overly concerned with the fact that Bautista is on the down side of 30, and they all seem happy to gloss over the lack of a track record or the fact that every Blue Jay regular had a surge in power last season.

Joba's Weight Gain Highlights Fattest Off-Season in Yankee History

2011-02-17T09:08:00.017-05:00

Yeah, I know CC Sabathia lost 25 pounds this off-season by cutting out Cap'n Crunch, that he ate daily, BY THE BOX (wanna know how unhealthy that shit is? on the FAQ page of their website, it asks why should kids and adults eat Cap'n Crunch, and their answer is that breakfast is important and cereal is easy for busy parents to make. When your reasoning is better suited for the McDonald's drive-thru window than your pure sugar dingleberries, your product isn't healthy).

They make no illusions about their unhealthiness-even the Cap'n himself is a fat fuck, and he's eating his own cereal.

Whatever weight Sabathia lost, apparently Joba Chamberlain found, and the concerns about his performance have gotten underway even earlier than they usually do because of it. I'm not sure what to do with Chamberlain anymore; I think the Yankees mishandled transitioning him from reliever to starter with their nonsensical innings cap that made his role fluctuate too often. The Yankee stance is that Chamberlain's stuff has been diminished following a 2008 shoulder injury in Texas, but I hadn't heard that excuse until today. What Chamberlain's upside is now is anyone's guess. At one time he had number 1 starter potential, with a chance for 4 plus pitches (fastball, curveball, slider, change) but his velocity is down from '07-'08 and it hasn't really rebounded. I'm afraid Joba is dangerously close to the designation of a player who could "use a change of scenery," a pity considering all the potential, and frankly his performance. Chamberlain mostly plays the role of goat in New York now, but he continues to post very good strikeout rates despite the lost velocity and his FIP outperformed his ERA by almost a run and a half last year. Chamberlain isn't a lost cause (yet) and I still think he has value either through performance or trade.

Contract Talk

The Brewers gave Rickie Weeks a 4-year, $38.5 million deal despite a career plagued by injuries and sometimes erratic performance. Weeks had a great 2010 and is only 29, so if he can reproduce those numbers for the duration of the deal, it'll probably be a good investment for the Brewers. The deal ends just after a player's peak years, so if you're going to pay Weeks big, now is the time to do it.

More contract new out of Blue Jays camp where sources are saying the team is close to giving Jose Bautista a 5-year, $65 million dollar extension following a season in which he hit more home runs than he had hit in his 3 previous seasons combined. Bautista is one of the more interesting players to watch this year, if only to see if his 2010 was the flash in the pan it looks like. Prior to 2010 Bautista never slugged more than .420 but exceeded that by nearly 200 points (.617!) last year. He still didn't hit for average, and probably never will, but he does get on-base. At 30 years old this contract doesn't look good, even if I assume he somehow maintains this power well into hid mid-30's, which he most likely will not do. Hell, I'll be surprised if he maintains this power going into this season. Jose Bautista's story is a nice one, but it smells a lot more like Brady Anderson than Sammy Sosa.

And finally on the contract front, the Albert Pujols deadline came and went without an agreement on a new deal, meaning Pujols will become a free agent after this season. I can't blame the Cardinals considering the numbers being thrown around (10-years, $300 million) but they can be blamed for giving Matt Holliday a bad contract that may restrict some of their financial flexibility here. If the Alex Rodriguez deal is the benchmark, it shouldn't be; it was a dumb deal when the Rangers gave him $252 million and dumber for the Yankees to go up to $275 million. But at the end of the day the Yankees can afford quarter billion dollar plus blunders, no other team can. If the Cards give Pujols that type of deal and he gets hurt, they'll be crippled financially for a decade. Stay tuned.

Smell That? Smells Like Pitchers and Catchers Reporting...

2011-02-14T11:49:00.017-05:00

Ah yes, the day has come. ESPN is actually live updating the first day of spring training, keeping us up to date on all the important happenings like:

AndrewMarchand:

Phil Hughes again lived at home with his parents this offseason.#espnst [via Twitter]

Gordon Edes:

Bobby Jenks met with media yesterday, and made it clear he had no interest whatsoever in revisiting the Twitter beating he took from Oney Guillen, the son of the White Sox manager, who dished a lot of personal stuff about Jenks in his tweets.

AndrewMarchand:

Hey, it is only 15 degrees warmer here in Tampa (64) compared to the Bronx. #notcomplainingjustsaying #espnst [via Twitter]

Wow!

As you can see, not much actually happens today other than physicals and blowing tremendous amounts of smoke up people's asses. But there was one interesting piece of information: CC Sabathia wouldn't close the door on opting out of his contract. Many people don't know about the opt-out clause Sabathia was given when he signed his mega-deal, thrown in as a safeguard in case he didn't enjoy New York (remember, he wanted all along to go to a west coast team and play near home, but he took the money in New York).

Sabathia has said he wants to pitch till he's 40, and his current deal takes him through his age 35 season. If he opted out, would he be able to cover more years on the back-end at a premium price? He certainly isn't going to find more dollars per year anywhere else, but would the Yankees feel too spurned by Sabathia to negotiate more years, after already making a huge 7 year investment? History suggests that won't be the case--Alex Rodriguez wasn't exactly punished, was he--but it's something Sabathia will have to consider before making any decisions. Perhaps the temptation of playing out west will be too great this time around, now that Sabathia has his ring. How ironic it would be; not often do you hear about players using the organization then tossing them aside when they're done with them.

Usually this is where I'd make a fat joke with regards to the "pitch till age 40" thing, but it's not like he won't be able to do it fat, he's been doing it fat for years!

Of course all of that is about a million steps away from where we are now- spring training, Huzzah!

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

The Cards have till noon Wednesday to work out a contract extension for Albert Pujols. If nothing is agreed to by then, negotiations shut down till after the season, when Pujols has said he will test free agency.

Terry Collins wants to prove he's a new man with the Mets, and by new man, they mean not a marginal manager.

Andy Pettitte Retires: Great Yankee, Good Pitcher, Not Quite a Hall of Famer

2011-02-04T09:27:00.018-05:00

My approach to analyzing the Yankees' off-season was to assume Andy Pettitte would be retiring, which became official today. Pettitte is beloved by Yankee fans and deservedly so, considering the role he played in winning 5 titles in a 13 year Yankee career. Pettitte's numbers were always good, usually never great, but his consistency is remarkable considering all the time spent in the AL East. Some have called Pettitte the greatest number 3 starter of his generation; others would say he was clearly a number 1 at different points in his career, even if the numbers suggest he wasn't an "ace." I say why not split the difference and call Pettitte a very good number 2 starter, who's role varied depending on the other pitchers he was surrounded by.

Is he a Hall-of-Famer? Not likely, although he'll probably get some votes. Pettitte's 240 wins are impressive--if you like that sort of useless thing--but they aren't really hall worthy. His 3.88 career ERA along with his 3.75 career FIP are also good, especially in the tough division, but again not really HOF stuff. Looking at the numbers, Pettitte really was incredibly consistent: 10 seasons with over 200 innings, 12 years over 190, an ERA no higher than 4.70 in a given season (in 1999, the year he sort of lost it briefly) and a career strikeout to walk ratio of 2.34. Pettitte never won the Cy Young, although his 1997 season was pretty spectacular (2.88 ERA, WAR of 7.1, beaten out by Roger Clemens and his magic syringe). Speaking of syringe, it'd be a shame for Pettitte to lose any HOF votes based on his admitted use of PED's on two separate occasions while recovering from injury. Even without that admission he still probably isn't HOF bound, but hats off to a remarkable career none the less.

If you're going to put up a picture, might as well make it an awesome one

All Pettitte all the time....

Here's Fangraphs on Pettitte Retiring.

Nick Swisher says Pettitte deserves to retire. Well, thank God Nick Swisher says it's ok...

No more core 4, says Pete Botte.

Reflections from Yankees past and present on Pettitte.

Yanks Sign Freddy Garcia: Sure, Why Not? It's Not Like Anyone is Watching...

2011-02-01T15:13:00.024-05:00

Oh wait, I'm watching, along with the biggest media market in the world. Oops. Is, "let's throw as much shit against the wall as we can and see what sticks," an effective off-season strategy for filling out a roster? The Yankees seem to be testing that, although the proof already lies in Kansas City, where they've been doing it for years with little to no success. The signing of Freddy Garcia on Tuesday is an extension of this strategy, and another firm indicator of just how much faith the team has in Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre.

For what it's worth, signing Garcia was a better move than signing Bartolo Colon, if for no other reason than it'll save the Yanks on catering. Garcia hasn't been really healthy since Ozzie Guillen finished running him into the ground in 2006, although he did manage to muster up 157 innings last year, with an ERA of 4.64 and an FIP of 4.77. He doesn't miss many bats (not that he was ever Nolan Ryan) and his ground ball rate is worse than Carl Pavano's, a starter who also doesn't miss bats but received a 2 year contract this off-season despite his injury history.

Best case scenario, Garcia gives the Yanks a 5th starter who eats innings while posting below average peripheral stats (K/BB rate, ground ball rate, HR/9 inning rate). Bill James' projected Garcia to have a slightly better 2011 than 2010, but that was before considering Garcia would land in the AL East. Don't expect Garcia to make the rotation out of spring training.

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

Fangraphs also asks whether Garcia can be helpful to the Yankees. Their answer sounds similar to mine. They also noted how Freddy's velocity has been dropping for some time now, and how through age 36 one of the pitcher's most similar to him is Bartolo Colon. Wonderful.

Here's an article about how to fix the Mets. Pretty scathing review of the Wilpon's.

The Ray's officially added nearly 40 combined IQ points to their roster.

Yanks Sign Bartolo Colon: Is it me, or is it Getting Really Fat in Here?

2011-01-26T14:40:00.026-05:00

Unable to add significant money to their payroll after being spurned by Cliff Lee, the Yankees have decided to add significant weight to their roster, first by signing the David Copperfield of burrito eating, and now announcing a minor league deal for pitcher Bartolo Colon. Colon, a 37 year-old who hasn't played in the majors since 2009, will make $900,000 if he makes the major league roster out of spring training.

The Yankees Latest Off-Season Acquisitions

Yeah, I get that it's low-risk, but for the Yankees anything less than $10 million annually is low-risk. Not too mention if you're going to go low-risk, generally you do so with the caveat they're also "high reward." Colon is not high reward, he's high risk of heart disease.

How slimming can pinstripes be?

When you knee yourself in the gut with every pitch, it's time to try a carrot

Out of Baseball for nearly 2 years, Bartolo found another profession that suited him
(I like when Google image searches yield results like this)

So the underwhelming Yankee off-season continues and it's fair to say that if Andy Pettitte doesn't come back this rotation could be a real train wreck. I'm looking at you, A.J. Burnett.

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

The Mets are keeping R.A. Dickey around for another 2 years. I can smell the fear in Philly now.

Word is the A's are interested in Chone Figgins.

Last week, Keith Law put out his list of the top prospects in baseball. Angels Outfielder Mike Trout was number 1, Yankees catcher Jesus Montero was number 4. The first met on the list was 3rd baseman Wilmer Flores, at number 48. Here are his top ten prospects in both the Yankee and Met organizations:

New York Yankees
1. Jesus Montero, C (4)
2. Manny Banuelos, LHP (12)
3. Gary Sanchez, C (68)
4. Dellin Betances, RHP (73)
5. Andrew Brackman, RHP (88)
6. Austin Romine, C
7. Graham Stoneburner, RHP
8. Slade Heathcott, OF
9. Hector Noesi, RHP
10. Adam Warren, RHP

New York Mets
1. Wilmer Flores, SS/3B (48)
2. Matt Harvey, RHP (83)
3. Reese Havens, 2B
4. Cesar Puello, OF
5. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF
6. Darrell Ceciliani, CF
7. Lucas Duda, 1B
8. Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B
9. Juan Urbina, LHP
10. Jeurys Familia, RHP

Blue Jays Attempt to Make Me Look Dumb, Fail Because They're Canadian

2011-01-26T09:18:00.032-05:00

(xenophobic title FTW!)

Anyway, a few days ago I wrote that the Blue Jays swindled the Angels by convincing them to take their super expensive albatross and give them a potentially useful piece in catcher Mike Napoli. However, Napoli's stay above the border didn't last long, as the Jays shipped him off to Texas to for reliever Frank Francisco.

Now truth be told, The Blue Jays do have a very promising young catcher in J.P. Arencibia, but he's only had 35 ML at-bats, so although giving him the opportunity to shine is the right move, having a good back-up catcher (one who can hit a bit, sorry Jose Molina) is probably a good idea too. On top of that, Napoli has played some 1st base and can DH in the AL. Obviously the Blue Jays didn't see it this way, or they did and were just blown away by the unquestioned POWER OF MIDDLE RELIEF PITCHING!

Yes, Francisco is a pretty good relief pitcher, with great strike-out rates, but that's all he is; he's never thrown more than 63 innings in a season, spends tons of time on the DL, couldn't hold onto the closer's role last season and oh by the way is a complete psychopath who threw a chair into a crowd during a baseball brawl a few years ago.

Also parents--or future parents--if your last name is Francisco, don't name your kid Frank; it just sounds really stupid and will lead to obvious anger management problems for the little one. Bottom line, I disagree with the Blue Jays making this move, because a catcher with some value is almost always more valuable than a reliever with some value. Besides that, if they really didn't have a place long-term for Napoli, the Jays could have always built his value and traded him to a team in contention that has a need at that position. Remember he does have power, has shown an ability to reach base consistently at times, and is under control for the next 2 seasons.

But, it appears Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos had a real hard on for Frankie Franc for some time. Ahab caught his surly, marginally impressive white whale. Huzzah!

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

Fangraphs seems more optimistic about this deal than I am. I think they've been drinking before noon again.

Here's a death match between two horrible baseball deals: The Vernon Wells trade against the Barry Zito contract. Pitting these two against each other is like something out of a Bum Fights video.

Oh Jesus, the Yankees signed Bartolo Colon. This little gem will get it's own post later on, I'm sure. Brace yourself for fat jokes.

Wandy Rodriguez got a nice contract extension from the Astros.

Stat Spotlight: wOBA

2011-01-25T11:22:00.023-05:00

I see this one a lot, and I'll try to make it as easy as possible to comprehend. Weighted On-Base Average or wOBA is an enhancement of OPS, a stat that combines slugging and on-base percentage. It's comprehensive, in that is takes into account the complete hitting experience much in the same way OPS does. The problem with OPS, as I understand it, is that it weighs SLG and OBP equally, when in reality they are not equal (getting on-base is more important). Thus Tom Tango invented wOBA which is scaled in the same way OBP is scaled (so a good wOBA looks like a good OBP). League average for wOBA is around .335.

Here's a practical example of wOBA and it's usefulness from a 2008 Fangraphs article, featuring superstar Hanley Ramirez and not superstar Ryan Ludwick:

let’s look at Ryan Ludwick versus Hanley Ramirez. Ludwick had a .966 OPS versus a .940 OPS for Ramirez – not a huge difference, but one most people would consider significant. If you put a lot of stock in OPS, you’d probably argue that Ludwick had a better offensive season.

However, Ramirez actually had a slightly higher wOBA, .403 to .401. This is due to the fact that Ramirez posted a .400/.540 line compared to Ludwick’s .375/.591 mark. Ramirez’s 25 point advantage in OBP was slightly more valuable than Ludwick’s 51 point advantage in SLG, and wOBA reflects this.

So from now on I'll try and use wOBA more often. All encompassing stats=good.

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

Jason Hammel Signed a 2-year deal with the Rockies.

Almost perfect but not even league average pitcher Armando Galarraga is heading to the Diamondbacks.

Yesterday we mocked the foolish trade the Angels made in acquiring Vernon Wells. Here's an article by Dave Cameron at Fangraphs about what he would have to do earn that contract of his.

Not much else, just one of those days.

Weekend Round-Up: Angels Trade for Terrible Contract

2011-01-24T09:31:00.000-05:00

(Yeah I know, some of this didn't happen over the weekend. But I wasn't writing about it, so it's like it didn't happen until the weekend--I am that powerful) The Angels went into the off-season with some money to burn, hoping they could sign a big bat or maybe get in on Cliff Lee, although that was always a long shot. At one point, they fancied themselves the front-runner to land third baseman Adrian Beltre, but they whiffed. All dressed up and nowhere to go, the Angels turned their attention to the trade market, found a suitable trade partner in Toronto and landed Vernon Wells. On the surface, a player like Wells sounds good for the Angels. He rebounded nicely in 2010 from some down years in the power department, hitting 31 home runs and Slugging .515 with an ISO score of .242. But everyone in Toronto had a surge in power last year, and for a slugging right hander Wells never offered much in the on-base department (career .329 OBP). So as a hitter he's limited, but what about his defense? Once a slightly above average fielder, Wells has had well below average UZR scores the last 3 seasons in center, and at age 32, those scores probably won't get better anytime soon. Couple that with the presence of Peter Bourjos and Wells seems to be fixing for a permanent move to a corner outfield spot, where his bat no longer profiles as above average. Ok, Ok so he's isn't all-star caliber, but a useful player for the right pri....OH MY GOD HE'S OWED $86 MILLION OVER THE NEXT 4 SEASONS! 86 million, for a player who showed obvious decline before last season, covering his ages 32-35 seasons. Gulp.

In return, the Blue Jays received C Mike Napoli and OF Juan Rivera. In Rivera, the Jays acquire an overpaid (5.25 Mill. for 2011) 4th outfielder who shows marginal to bad defensive skills with a little bit of pop. Mostly a salary dump on the part of the Angels, laughable considering the contract they added. Napoli is a different story. Toronto will have control of him for 2 more seasons at varying arbitration prices (this year he's asked for $6.1 million, the Angels countered with $5.3 mill so he'll get something in that window). Even if Napoli wins his arbitration case, the combined salaries of the 2 players Toronto received will still be nearly $12 million less than what they would have paid Wells in 2011. Napoli has played in parts of 5 seasons at the major league level, but has only recorded more than 500 plate appearances once, in 2010. Sporadic play makes assessment a bit harder, but Napoli has consistently shown good power for a catcher and solid on-base skills, even if he only hits around .250. His worst season was last year, when he only had a .316 on-base percentage but maintained good power with a .233 ISO. Perhaps the increased workload negatively affected performance, something that wouldn't be as big a concern going forward. Napoli is only 29, isn't too expensive and is an upgrade over "all-star" John Buck. Win for the Blue Jays.

Apparently Mike Scioscia didn't really love Mike Napoli.

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

The Rays have reunited Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon. Platoon's are fine in a pinch for positional players, but carrying 2 guys around to platoon DH, without much of a defensive return seems like overkill. Yeah, Damon can still run down balls in the corner outfield, but my god his arm is terrible.

Royals signed Billy Butler to a 4 year extension. This is a good move for The Royals, especially with the crop of talented you guys it has in the farm system. The Royals could become contenders for the AL central by 2013.

Yanks Hope Advances in Time Travel Will Vindicate Andruw Jones Signing

2011-01-21T14:12:00.000-05:00

I joked about this a few days ago, but the bloated corpse of Andruw Jones is officially Bronx bound. I mock Andruw, and rightly so, considering what he once was (a guy who hit 51 home runs in a season) and what he is now (fat). A brief history lesson: Jones slept through his contract year with the Braves in 2007, posting a .222/.311/.413 line, but still managed to trick the Dodgers--with what I can only assume were funhouse mirrors--into giving him a nice 2 year, $36 million dollar contract that off-season. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, Jones' parlor tricks never translated to on the field success, and after a year of .158/.256/.249 The Dodgers dumped him.

His greatest trick was when he'd make the whole burrito disappear
Since then Jones has been a part-time player, never registering more than 331 plate appearances in a season, with mixed results. No, he's not as bad as he was in L.A., and he showed he still has some pop (.255 ISO in 2010). But he'll probably never hit for an average above .240 again, and his splits suggest he's more effective against lefties than righties. On defense, Jones is a shell of his former self, but isn't so run down that he's a liability. Once one of the best center fielders in the game (UZR score one year of 26, that's pretty awesome) Jones' UZR has dropped to around league average, and is even more tenuous considering his propensity to not work out.

At this point, Andruw Jones is best suited for the role he'll have with the Yankees, a 4th outfielder, assuming he tries hard, which is not a guarantee. This deal won't end up being a home-run for the Yankees, as the Andruw Jones of 2006 isn't coming back, and the effortless play in the outfield he was once known for now will come across more lackadaisical than anything when he isn't running balls down in the gaps. For $2 million, the Yankees aren't taking much of a financial risk, and if you can overlook a lot for some extra pop, you may enjoy Andruw. But don't be surprised if he doesn't finish the year in the Bronx.

Bleacher Report has the Andruw Jones Guide to Ruining a Career.

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

The Rays are talking to Johnny Damon about being their DH. Yeah, he can still get on-base some, but there isn't much else going on there.

Manny Ramirez and Vlad Guerrero may have homes soon too. I should have named this column, "The Barely Walking Dead." Really, these guys are only suited for DH roles at this point. If only there were an article discussing these remaining DH options....Huzzah!

Who is the most valuable player in baseball? Fangraphs seeks answers. The answer isn't exactly shocking, but the exclusion of Yuniesky Betancourt from the discussion was!

Remember when that player kicked that catcher pre-fight with the pitcher? Does that make sense? well, here's a link with a video of it.

Yankee Icon Carl Pavano Re-signs With Twins

2011-01-20T12:36:00.000-05:00

The Twins reaches a 2-year, $16.5 million deal with Carl Pavano, he of the hipster mustache movement and a notable former bust with the Yankees. Funnily enough, word is the Yankees were in on Pavano before this deal was made, which should tell you a little something about the possibility of Sergio Mitre being a 5th starter in the AL East. Assuming health (HA!) the deal is, well, what it is: about $8 million annually for an innings eating sinkerballer who projects to have an ERA and FIP a little above 4. A front of the rotation ace he is not, but you can certainly do worse than Pavano, and since the Twins should find themselves in contention for the Central crown this season, bringing Pavano back is a fine move. There is obvious risk here for the Twins beyond the fact that Pavano can injury himself answering the phone. He just turned 35 and will be 36 when the contract expires, hardly a pitcher's peak performance years (generally speaking). The Twins have done a fabulous job of growing into a mid-market team from a small market club, and their recent expansion of payroll is admirable. But the Twins aren't the Yankees, and if Pavano goes down tomorrow with an infected naval ring piercing and doesn't return for 2 seasons-as he is capable of doing- the Twins will not have the budget flexibility to replace him to the tune of $8 million annually.

Fangraphs compares Pavano to Jake Westbrook, and how they're basically the same thing. It is interesting that conventional wisdom said Pavano would land the bigger deal based on nothing in particular.

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

The Yankee bullpen is quite expensive. If the idea is to compensate for not having a 4th or 5th starter by shortening games to 6 innings, color me skeptical. 3 situational lefties, who may face 2 batters or less with each appearance, making a total of $9.2 million? Who is your bullpen innings eater, Joba?

The Dodgers show how not to create a platoon.

The Padres signed Chad Qualls, and in related news this blog struggled with whether or not that was actual news worthy of posting.

Happy belated birthday to the mustache Carl Pavano's mustache wishes it could be, but can't because true mustache greatness is not born of irony.

Mike Pelfrey is your 2011 Mets opening day starter. If Pelfrey were on the Phillies his start would be skipped till mid-April due to the early season schedule. Just sayin'.

Here's a look at the 2011 MLB Draft's first round order. As of now, the name to know is Anthony Rendon.

Autonomy is to Brian Cashman as Sanity is to Milton Bradley

2011-01-19T14:50:00.000-05:00

Apparently, Brian Cashman didn't think highly of the move his organization made by signing Rafael Soriano. Cashman made this clear to the media, at the press conference announcing the signing.
Well, that's just super. Word is the Yankee front office believed it has a duty, passed down from God himself, to spend copious amounts of money every off-season regardless of talent, history or common sense. If any other team in baseball pulled a move like this, a tar and feathering at a public forum would be in order.

In other news, board game tycoon turned psychotic DH Milton Bradley was arrested for making threats towards an unidentified woman. Craig Calcaterra looks into whether or not the Mariners can void Bradley's contract, here. Unless this story turns out to be false, I think it's become quite clear that Bradley just isn't psychologically capable of handling a position on a major league roster.

More Randomness...

Royals pitcher Gil Meche is calling it quits after more shoulder troubles. Meche had some talent but injuries and inconsistency stunted any chance of real stardom. That being said, Gil got paid and big-time. Baseball has this funny economic cycle that sees it's "marquee" free agents get paid anywhere from a ton of money to a shit ton of money, depending on the year. Meche had 2 things working for him when he signed that deal; he hit the market at the right time and he was a marginal starter who was relatively young and had potential without the actual history of success. Often times those who fit that profile receive deals beyond their worth (cough::JARET WRIGHT::cough). Anyway, good for Gil.

Here's a nice article about the faultiness of ERA. And you can supplement that with MY post about FIP from last season. Come on, you know you want to...

Hardball Times has 5 winning moves of the off-season. My favorite part of the article: Yunieksy Betancourt's name in the title of number 4 put in parenthesis, then he isn't even discussed in the trade evaluation. The guy is a glorified sandbag.

What? A Relaunch? At a Time Like This?

2011-01-18T10:21:00.000-05:00

Yes. New season, new commitment to write as much as possible before flaming out. Huzzah! So very many things have happened since the last post: Giants win the World Series, Cliff Lee goes back to Philly, The Red Sox retooled and the Yankees are hot on the trail of Andruw Jones (the sound of one hand clapping).

In the coming weeks, posts will remain sporadic until spring training, when God willing we'll be able to put together previews for each division (gotta wait till the rosters are at least semi-formed before that can happen). So until our own content is available, enjoy other people's content, through the magic of the internet!

Apparently, Brian Cashman didn't care much for the Rafael Soriano deal. 35 million for a set-up man is only reasonable in Yankeeland, and even then it's not reasonable. In signing Soriano, the Yankees also surrendered their first round draft pick to the Rays, who have a pretty good history of turning those picks into valuable pieces.

Joey Votto got a nice extension from the Reds. The deal will cover him through his age 30 season, encompassing what is generally considered a player's peak years.

Albert Pujols has set a deadline for his contract extension. If a new deal isn't in place by spring training, Pujols says he'll test free agency next winter.

The Mets are on the verge of signing Chris Young. Reclamation projects like this make sense for the Mets right now; they have a spacious ballpark that can yield positive results for a fly ball pitcher like Young and if they can keep him healthy, he could become trade bait by July.

Fangraphs asks, What is Tom Gorzellany? The answer: confusing, like an original movie idea from Christopher Nolan.

Here's a video of Carlos Pena signing a taco for a fan. You are a better person for watching it.

Who will be this year's Jose Bautista? Lewie Pollis has a suggestion.

Damon Says No To Sawx

2010-08-24T21:33:00.001-04:00

Johnny Damon, going against the conventional wisdom of the American tourist, motorist and resident, has decided that Detroit is an awesome place! The Red Sox put in a waiver claim for Damon yesterday, who contractually could only be sent to 8 teams without his consent. Unfortunately for Boston, they were not one of the 8 teams Damon had listed, giving him veto power over the waiver claim, which he decided to exercise.

The Red Sox are in desperate need of a spark. They currently sit 5 and a half games out of first in the AL East, in third place behind Tampa and New York. Their season has been mired by devastating injuries and uninspired performances from some of their top line pitchers (most notably Beckett, Lackey and Papelbon, who have performed well for some stretches and have been ineffective for others.) All told, the Sox could have used Damon, even though his performance this season wouldn't classify him as a game-changer. Damon's line--.272/.355/.410-- profiles him as a useful piece that can still get on base reasonably well. His .410 slugging percentage is down 79 points from last season, which is more a function of his leaving a good hitters park for a good pitchers park in Detroit. As a fielder, Damon continues to play an average outfield, posting a 0.4 UZR.

Would Damon have given the Sox more than Daniel Nava or Darnell McDonald? Statistically all 3 have performed similarly, but neither Nava nor McDonald have the track record Damon has, and obviously neither would bring the spark Damon brings. But alas, it was not to be. Apparently Damon was quoted as saying, "I love Detroit" after he determined he wouldn't leave, proving that you don't need to remain in Boston to still be an idiot.

Blue Jays Extend Romero Through 2015

2010-08-15T15:14:00.000-04:00

The Blue Jays did something extremely smart for a mid-market team: they locked up a young commodity long-term. 25 year-old left hander Ricky Romero was given a 5 year, 30.1 million dollar contract extension that essentially buys out his arbitration eligible seasons and delays his free agency at least a season. A deal like this would have seemed far fetched for Romero only a couple of seasons ago, when he was dangerously close to be labeled a bust. A former first round pick (6th overall) in 2005 amateur draft, Romero, a Cal-State Fullerton alum, was given a 2.1 million dollar signing bonus upon leaving school. His professional career, prior to the 2009 season, was marred by both injuries and control problems.

Despite his troubles, Romero was placed in the Blue Jays rotation by manager Cito Gaston at the start of the '09 season, and despite a mid-season oblique injury, he was able to perform at a 2.7 WAR level (That's saying Romero's performance was worth 2.7 more wins to the Jays than an average player in his same spot). This season, Romero has been a 3.4 WAR player, the same as CC Sabathia for the Yankees, and his overall performance suggests there is no reason that can't continue in the future.

The smartest thing about the deal (assuming of course Romero doesn't implode) is the overall economic implication. No pitcher has ever been given this type of contract after only pitching a season and a half in the majors, but that doesn't mean it's a bad idea. In baseball, there are essentially two ways to go about dealing with a young player contractually; the first is to go year to year with him, and the second is to lock him up to a long-term deal. Both methods have their pro's and con's.

Going year to year with a player means the team will follow the rules MLB and the player's union setup during their previous collective bargaining agreement regarding the start of a player's major league career. As an example let's use player X, a big time prospect who definitely will perform well when called up. Upon reaching the majors, player X's ML clock starts, which counts how many days of major league service he has had. For player X's first 3 seasons, his contract is "under control" by his team, meaning they are allowed to simply renew his original deal or as most teams due, offer a modest pay increase over that period of time. Upon completion of his 3rd ML season, player X will then become arbitration eligible, meaning in order to maintain his rights the team must offer to have an arbitration hearing to determine how much money he should make at the start of his fourth season. Depending on the arbitration panel's decision, and the player's previous season performance, player X might receive a substantial pay increase over his first 3 seasons in the majors. After his fourth season, player X will be arbitration eligible 2 more times (So 3 seasons of complete contract control and 3 seasons of arbitration) before he can finally file for free agency before the start of his 7th season. That's a relatively brief and abbreviated explanation of going year to year.

The alternative, which the Jays chose to go for with Romero, is to lock your player up long-term relatively early for some serious guac (that's what the kids on the streets call money!). By doing this, the Jays have eliminated all the confusing aspects of going year to year by locking Romero into a fixed sum that will encompass all of his remaining years of complete contract control, as well as all of his arbitration eligible seasons and what would have been his first year of free agency. What are the implications? For the Jays, they either have essentially payed a lot more now to pay a lot less later, or they gave millions of dollars away to a player who could regress or get injured. In arbitration, Romero (assuming, again, he maintains his current level of performance) could make slightly more than he will with this new deal, and he absolutely would have made more on the open market in 2015. So if Romero performs, they'll have both saved money on Romero during his arbitration years and prolonged his tenure in Toronto by an extra season, presumably below market value.

For Romero, the implications are either he sacrificed some money and the ability to reach free agency a bit earlier for long-term security and a hefty sum of money, or he swindled the Jays and gets more than he will ever deserve. Ultimately, the Blue Jays are the ones taking the bigger risk, but as fangraphs notes, it isn't a huge one. Seems like a good deal all around.

Note: For a more in depth economic understanding, click on that fangraphs link above- it was written by a computer nerd, and computer nerds know how numbers work.

Chipper Jones Done For the Year

2010-08-13T21:25:00.000-04:00

Bad news for the 1st place Braves-they lost Chipper Jones to a torn ACL for the rest of the season. A common football injury, ACL tears take months to rehabilitate, although Chipper has said he plans on going through that process and returning next season. Jones isn't anywhere near what he used to be, and his last two seasons he has seen most of his power sapped by age and nagging injury. Once a consistent .200+ ISO player, Jones' has regressed to around a .160 ISO player. To combat the power outage, many aging sluggers begin to "cheat" on fastballs that they can no longer handle. In baseball when we say someone is "cheating on a fastball" we mean they're starting their bat a touch earlier than normal in order to catch-up to the fastball they can no longer get around on.

Since the injury the Braves have started Brooks Conrad, a 30-year old career minor leaguer prior to this season, at third base. Braves GM Frank Wren would be well served to try and find a suitable replacement for Jones, either by scouring the waiver wire for a free agent of placing a waiver claim on someone who can handle regular duty. Chipper may not have been what he once was, but he was certainly better than anything else they have for the hot corner.

The Trainwreck That is The Seattle Mariners

2010-08-10T18:52:00.000-04:00

another good post by Rob Neyer today, sampling some work by Joe Posnanski about how the Mariners never deserved the pre-season adulation that was heaped on them. Mariner's GM Jack Zduriencik is something of a darling among the Saber crowd, coming from a baseball ops/player development background in Milwaukee that was relatively successful under his watch. Unfortunately, Zduriencik's tenure in Seattle has been a mixed bag, especially at the major league level.

For instance, the baseball world applauded his acquisition of Cliff Lee from the Phillies for propects that only Phillies GM Ruben Amaro found to be elite. Lee has since been traded and in return, Zduriencik acquired a crop of prospects better than anything he gave up for the left-hander, so for that he should be applauded. But as Neyer's piece notes, moves like trading for Milton Bradley knowing he would have to play the field; trading for light hitting first baseman Casey Kotchman to replace Russell Branyan; signing light-hitting Chone Figgins to a big, long-term deal; buying too heavily into the pitching and defense concept; all of those moves proved to be killer for a team that really wasn't as close to contention as their 2009 win-loss record would indicate.

Now the question for the M's is what's next? Do they scrap what they have and begin to rebuild in earnest, or try to find new parts to glue onto a foundation of a few high-priced talents they'll have under contract in 2011? The shelf life of a GM who loses at the major league level isn't too long, which leads me to believe it'll be the latter. On top of the bad Bradley contract ($12 million for 2011) they M's will also be doling out $5 million for useless shortstop Jack Wilson and another $9 million for Figgins next season. But hey, at least they'll probably field moderately well!

Jose Guillen Available

2010-08-06T18:32:00.000-04:00

Unable to find any suitors via trade, the Kansas City Royals cut outfielder Jose Guillen, one of their highest paid players. Signed after a decent season in Seattle, Guillen was never the middle of the order bat the Royals had envisioned, but then again they were pretty stupid to think he would be. Although he showed flashes of power and the ability to hit for average in the middle part of the decade, Guillen never showed a consistent ability to work the count and take a walk (his career walk rate is 5 percent, compared to Albert Pujols who's career walk rate is 13.4 percent). Ultimately, KC was paying about 12 million dollars annually for a 20-25 home run player with a .300-.315 OBP. For a small market team with limited revenue streams, I can think of about 12 million better ways to allocate that sum of money.

At this point, Guillen's probably a platoon bat, best suited for the AL where he can DH--which he had been doing exclusively in Kansas City--that can give you a little bit of pop from the right side. His ability to get on base has declined severely in his time with Kansas City, as his walk rate and strike out rate in '10 hover around 6 percent and 21 percent, respectively. Any player who walks 6 percent of the time and strikes out almost a one-fourth of the time is going to be of limited offensive use. ESPN is reporting the Yankees and Giants may be interested- the latter because they're starved for offense and the former because they can afford to make any dumb mistake that comes across their check book.

The real lesson here, as I alluded to earlier, is that the Royals should not have thrown that much money at a short term DH solution, that isn't any good, and won't help your team win. Compounding the issue is the fact that the Royals plan when they signed Guillen as a free agent was essentially to lose, in the interim, and slowly build a winner over time. How a 3 year, 36 million dollar contract to a player of Guillen's caliber helps achieve that long-term goal escapes me. Forgetting for the moment that Guillen sucks (which he does, and did when he was signed by KC), shouldn't a team like the Royals set aside that 12 million dollars to spend on their draft, where they can cultivate and control home grown, potentially A-caliber players for many years? Sure the draft can be a crapshoot and many players who are highly touted don't amount to much. But if you're a small market team, it's a risk that MUST be taken for the good of the franchise. The payoff, if done properly, is you end up like the Rays who are 2 years removed from a world series and are currently battling for first place in a division with the Yankees and the Red Sox.

Youkilis Done For the Year

2010-08-05T21:01:00.000-04:00

So apparently that bizarre thumb injury that no other athlete has ever had, has claimed the rest of Kevin Youkilis' 2010 season. Youkilis had a very respectable .307/.411/.564 line, and as of the day he went down was worth about 4 wins over the course of the season when compared to the average major league 1st baseman. Production like that is hard to duplicate--especially post trade deadline-- so Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has said he will attempt to find a suitable left-handed bat to platoon with Mike Lowell for the rest of the season.

Lowell has had something of a lost season due to injury, age and Adrian Beltre stealing his position. At this stage of his career he is probably best suited defensively for 1st base anyway, but a platoon mate will probably be necessary to maximize his skill set (and by that I mean keep him from breaking down at a faster pace than he already is). The problem, as I eluded to earlier, is finding such a bat. Even if we assume Lowell can hit lefties anything like he did last year (a .301/.363/.503 line, pretty optimistic as it is) finding a left-handed caddy who can do the same against righties may prove supremely difficult. Bottom line, The Sox will miss Youkilis, and their chances of making the playoffs coming out of the toughest division in baseball have gone down substantially.

Still Not Done

2010-08-03T20:29:00.001-04:00

ESPN today has an article up about 9 potential players who could be moved in a post-trade deadline deal. In order for a player to be dealt after the deadline, he must first be put on waivers, and clear the requisite waiver period without being claimed by another team. It isn't well known amongst baseball fans, but superstars being placed on waivers is actually a relatively common occurrence. Manny Ramirez, who made Jerry Crasnick's list of possible post-trade deadline movers, was actually put on waivers after the trade deadline quite often by the Red Sox, mostly during those last few tumultuous seasons.

Now if you're saying, "but Bryant, I don't mean to question your considerable brilliance, but why would they do that?" The answer is multi-faceted. Th first reason most teams do this is because they can. Generally, players of Manny's caliber and experience have gigantic contracts, and teams who may be interested in the player are often scared off by the price tag, thus negating the danger on the part of the team making the waiver move. Once the player clears waivers, he can be traded to other teams, which is the essential value of making the waiver move in the first place, but this too is predicated on finding a team willing to take on at least some of the player's contract.

The other reason teams put big money guys on waivers is for the obvious; they hope someone will claim him and take him off their hands. Manny's a good example, because in the last couple of years of "Manny being Manny," Boston would have been happy to allow him to walk for nothing in return but salary relief. Unfortunately for Boston, Manny's massive contract always resulted in other teams taking a pass.

Trade Analysis

2010-08-01T17:16:00.000-04:00

Rather than do a write-up for every major trade that went on this past week, I'll just do one giant post about all that I wish to discuss, because it's Sunday and I'm super lazy! Without further ado, the 2010 MLB trade deadline:

1) Yankees acquire First Baseman/DH Lance Berkman and cash from the Astros for Relief Pitcher Mark Melancon and Infielder Jimmy Paredes

Berkman, also apparently known as "Fat Elvis," slots into the DH spot Nick Johnson would be in if he wasn't made out of paper mache. Berkman's numbers are down this year, with a .242/.367/.430 line, which is apparently due to both age and a knee injury he rushed back early from. As the knee continues to improve, so should his numbers, and playing in the AL where he can DH his brains out can't hurt either. Berkman will never be the player he was 2 years ago, but he can still get on-base, has a little bit of pop, switch hits and won't kill you in the field.

In return the Astros, who have finally gotten the picture that they suck, get a reliever who has thrown a combined 20 and a third major league innings and a "toolsy" (scout speak for athletic and talented without ever really putting it all together) infielder who according to Keith Law at ESPN.com is, "without a clear position." Not too say either player can't or won't produce in the majors, it's just far from a slam dunk.

Winner: Yankees: Berkman's contract isn't an issue for the bombers, and they didn't give up anything of note to get him. He's a bad body player whose career is winding down, but DH'ing can do a lot for those types of guys. Melancon has good stuff, but he hasn't put it all together at the higher organizational levels.

Braves Acquire Outfielder Rick Ankiel and Relief Pitcher Kyle Farnsworth from the Royals for Outfielder Gregor Blanco, Relief Pitcher Jesse Chavez and Pitcher Tim Collins

Royals GM Dayton Moore used to be a front office guy for the Braves, so he cuts deals with them all the time to get names he can remember from scouting reports long past, when they might have been something. Ultimately, they are not (see: Davies, Kyle). That being said, he wasn't going to get much for either Ankiel or Farnsworth to begin with, so dumping salary is all well and good for a last-place team going nowhere. The Braves do improve with the deal, which is more of a testament to how terrible Nate McLouth was than anything else. Ankiel's line of .261/.317/.467 really isn't starting center fielder worthy, but McLouth was hitting .168/.279/.265, so in comparison, Ankiel is Mickey Mantle. The other piece the Braves got, reliever Kyle Farnsworth, should be nicknamed, "Danny Ocean," for his unique ability to constantly steal millions of dollars from teams every year without ever being caught (cause, yah know, he sucks). That being said, Mr. Ocean is actually having a decent season, with a 2.42 ERA and an equally good 3.16 FIP. Also, for what it's worth, Farnsworth's best season came when he spent half the year in Atlanta in 2005, so it's possible he could be a useful piece. Or he could be Kyle Farnsworth. Check back in 3 months.

In return for that glorious bounty, the Royals get Chavez, a below average reliever who has shown some ability to get a strikeout; a serviceable fourth outfielder with little pop in Blanco, and Tim Collins, who you may remember from the Yunel Escobar trade earlier in the year. The knock on Collins has been his stature--he's listed as being 5'7'', 155 pounds-- but he has had an excellent strikeout per nine innings (K/9) all throughout the minors. If Collins can't cut it as a starter due to wear and tear, perhaps he can be an effective left-handed reliever.

Winner: Nobody really, but I guess the Braves, even though statistically the best player in this deal is my size (still waiting for that call-up....any day now...don't worry, I got time....why isn't the phone ringing...).

3-Way Trade: Cardinals acquire Right Handed Starter Jake Westbrook and Left Hander Nick Greenwood; Padres receive Outfielder Ryan Ludwick; Indians receive Pitcher Cory Kluber

Everything about this deal seems to have been hinged on the performance of St. Louis outfielder Jon Jay, who has had an impressive first month up with the big club (.383/.433/.533) making Ludwick expendable, in the eyes of the Cardinal front office. Admittedly, I've always found Ludwick to be overrated. His 2008 season has been bookended by mediocrity or worse, but for the offensively starved Padres, he is a welcome addition to the club. Even if Ludwick were to perform at career averages he'd be a steal for a fluky San Diego team that has out performed it's talent level all season.

The Cardinals get Jake Westbrook, a strike throwing sinkerballer who fits the mold of how the Cardinals put together a pitching staff (Keep Carpenter and Wainwright around, then sign whoever is down and out and let Dave Duncan revitalize their career, so that they can hit the open market and steal a ton of money from the Brewers). I expect Westbrook then to perform well in St. Louis, although it seems difficult for me at this time to make the same prediction about Jon Jay. Although off to a hot start, the small sample size suggests that he may be in over his head, and if he comes back to earth, the Cardinals are going to miss that dull, unimpressive warmth off a Ryan Ludwick hug.

For their part, the Indians get Cory Kluber and salary relief to fuel their perpetual rebuilding machine that they've utilized since forever. Kluber has decent minor league peripherals and probably profiles at best as a Jake Westbrook, middle to back of the rotation type. Kluber has never been dominant at any professional level--he almost always gives up at least a hit per inning, whether it's single-A, double-A or rookie ball--but his K/BB rates have been good enough that the Indians, who obviously have nothing but more games to lose, should give him a shot.

Winners: The Padres, who before this trade were looking into the possibility if signing Isuro Tanaka for the stretch run.

Dodgers Acquire Left Handed Starter Ted Lilly and Infielder Ryan Theriot from the Cubs for Infielder Black DeWitt, Right Handed pitcher Brett Wallach and Right Handed Pitcher Kyle Smit

This deal is all about Lilly, who the Dodgers were able to get even with the messy divorce that has engulfed the teams financial situation this season. Lilly has a terrible win-loss record, but he may be the poster child for why that's so irrelevant when analyzing player production. Despite being 3-8, he sports a 3.69 ERA and a 4.50 FIP, which while not great, should be helped by moving to a better park for fly-ball pitchers, like himself. Lilly's stuff is not what it used to be (I saw a game earlier this year where he seemed to working almost exclusively in the mid-80's) but he has a good secondary repertoire and will most likely improve the Dodger rotation. Along with Lilly came Theriot, a player who saw a lot of plate appearances because Lou Piniella loves it when players swing the bat, no matter what. For the Dodgers, Theriot is mostly a back-up infielder, which suits him better than a starting job anyway. He effectively replaces Blake DeWitt, as he can play short or second.

For the Cubs, DeWitt profiles as, well, a back-up infielder who doesn't hit much but has shown the ability to get on base when given the opportunity. He can play both second and third effectively, but can't replace Theriot at short, which is fine anyway because the Cubs have Starlin Castro. Brett Wallach, a 21year-old right hander, had a pretty good K/9 inning rate in 2009, despite a bad ERA. Smit is a strike throwing reliever who projects as a middle-man at the major league level.

Winner: Ted Lilly: Because he's going to a contender. I always liked him, ever since he came up with the Yankees looking like a terrified kindergartener on the verge of crying. You can try and grow a beard, Ted, but you still look like that 5 year-old who just dropped his ice cream cone on the ground.

Yanks Acquire Austin Kearns

2010-07-31T11:24:00.001-04:00

The Yankees acquired outfielder Austin Kearns on Friday for a player to be named later, according to sources. Kearns, who at one time was a top prospect with the Reds, is hitting .272 with a .354 OBP this season playing everyday in Cleveland. From ESPN.com:

"We can use him a lot of different ways because he's a guy who's used to playing every day," said Girardi, who expects to have Kearns available for Saturday night's game against the Rays. According to Girardi, Yankees GM Brian Cashman first mentioned the possibility of acquiring Kearns on Friday afternoon. Cashman did not immediately return a phone call seeking comment.

"It'll give me a chance to rest some of our left-handed hitting guys," Girardi said. "We're in the midst right now of 37 games in 38 days, so I won't have to run the same guys out there every day. You can keep them healthy and physically strong, because we're going to need them."

Adding Kearns will necessitate the Yankees' making a roster move, and although Girardi said he was undecided who would be sent down in order to make room, the likeliest candidates are Juan Miranda or Colin Curtis, both of whom have been used in the role Girardi envisions for Kearns.

Kearns is nothing to get excited about, but like Girardi said, he does add flexibility to a line-up that has to play a lot of games over the next 5 weeks. Kearns is also a menial bench upgrade over miranda or Curtis, and his presence gives Girardi another right-handed bat off the bench to go with Marcus Thames. For the cost (practically nothing) it's a fine move.

Roy Oswalt, the Astros and the Phillies Attempt to Make Me Look Like a Fool

2010-07-29T17:27:00.000-04:00

Well it's not going to work, alright! Because I said the biggest thing holding this deal up was the economics of Oswalt's insistence on having his 2012 option picked up and 16 million, which espn.com is reporting they ultimately did not have to do. Oswalt's desire to leave the Bermuda Triangle was powerful enough that he agreed not to have the option picked up by the Phillies, who will instead pay him a 2 million dollar buyout.

In exchange for Oswalt, The Phillies sent pitcher J.A. Happ and 2 prospects, outfielder Anthony Gose and shortstop Jonathan Villar to Houston with a significant amount of cash. At first glance this seems like a great deal for the Phillies. Not only did they not give up their best prospect, outfielder Domonic Brown, they also will reportedly get an extra 11 million dollars from Houston to help pay for Oswalt's pro-rated 2010 salary and his 2011 salary, totaling around 23 million. So essentially, the Phillies get a year and a half of Oswalt for 12 million, well below market value for a pitcher still in his prime.

The deal did not appear great for the Astros, but they did immediately ship Gose off to Toronto for 3B prospect Brett Wallace, a player Baseball America ranked the 27th best prospect in baseball. Currently, Wallace is hitting .301 with 18 home-runs in triple-A. Happ, a lefty who works in the low-90's, was a darling of the Phillie faithful last year when he posted a 2.93 ERA, but he didn't miss a ton of bats, and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.33 was uninspired. Happ's 2010 has been mired with injury, and his 1.76 ERA doesn't go well with the 5.17 FIP he has (small sample size of 15 innings, I know). Overall, looks like the Phillies did well, for this season and the next.

Roy Oswalt is Good (And Other Fairly Obvious Trade Deadline Observations)

2010-07-28T11:41:00.000-04:00

The scuttlebutt around the league right now is that Roy Oswalt will not be leaving the black-hole, baseball oblivion of Houston anytime soon. Oswalt has made it clear that he will only waive his no-trade clause if his 16-million dollar option for the 2012 season is picked up by the acquiring team. Unfortunately, for whomever would like to acquire him, that totally sucks. Oswalt has said he's willing to restructure the option in an attempt to make things more appealing, but the bottom line is most teams will be priced out no matter what.

Demands like that make you wonder if Oswalt really wants out of Houston, a team so bad they've asked Walter Matthau to manage them (OMG ROFLMAO!!!). Any team in contention would be happy to have him however. Oswalt's FIP is better than it's been in 4 years, and his K/9 is the best it's been since his rookie season in 2001. Even Oswalt's contract (the remaining pro-rated 2010 salary and 16 mill. for 2011) isn't terribly daunting for most major market teams, especially if the Astros decided to kick in some cash on their end.

But that whole 2012 option thing really muddles things. It's hard to know what Oswalt means when he says he's willing to "restructure," but unless he means 'defer for many years' or 'take a pay cut' chances are the reconfigured deal will still cost his new team a pretty penny in 2012, something they may not be able to afford. For instance, the Phillies have been in on Oswalt from the start, but their current financial situation has them considering moving right fielder Jason Werth in the middle of a pennant race because they won't be able to afford him after this season (but they can afford that glorified DH they have at 1st base for premium player money, but I digress). In theory, Werth could command an annual salary at or around Oswalt's figure for the next 2 seasons, which makes you wonder why they think Werth is too expensive but Oswalt isn't.

Bottom line seems to be that Roy Oswalt probably won't leave Houston this year, and if his 2012 contract demands continue, they probably won't find it easy to move him next year either. Good thing Houston is going to turn it around quickly with their phenomenal farm system!

Dan Haren to the Angels

2010-07-26T15:40:00.000-04:00

The Los Angelos Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles county, state of California, United States of America acquired pitcher Dan Haren from the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday for pitcher Joe Saunders and 3 minor leaguers. On the surface, Haren isn't having a season that qualifies as "Ace status," what with a 4.60 ERA and a 7-8 record. Unfortunately that assessment of Haren is brain dead, because we here at saberdummies know that ERA is not the be all and end all of pitching quality, and win-loss record is largely irrelevant due to how reliant it is on team performance and not individual performance.

You can see where I'm going here. Haren has had a decent season, if unlucky, with the best strike-out rate of his career (9.21 K/9). His problem, as has been his problem for some time, is his penchant for giving up the long ball. His 14.1 percent HR/FB rate (meaning 14 percent of the fly balls he gives up leaves the park) is the highest of his career, and he isn't stranding the runners he puts on base with the same frequency of the last 3 seasons.

Dave Cameron at fangraphs had a good piece about why many scouts don't view Haren as an ace; namely his impeccable control. Perhaps if he threw a bit more out of the strike zone, he wouldn't give up as many home runs. Going to the AL probably won't help either, although Arizona's home ballpark wasn't exactly conducive to a lot of fly balls. We need to remember however that Haren's FIP is more than a half-run better than his ERA, and that strike-out rate will work well anywhere. Factoring in career norms, we can surmise Haren probably has some better pitching in him, and that luck of his will probably change too (.355 BABIP).

Overall, the Angels did well in acquiring a pitcher with good stuff, great control, and a workable contract for the next few seasons. In my estimation, Haren is not exactly an ace, but he can certainly be an effective number 2, who gives you ace-like stuff relatively often.

Joba Chamberlain is Sucking (Sort of)

2010-07-23T11:33:00.000-04:00

Great post from July 20th on Rob Neyer's espn blog about Joba Chamberlain's unimpressive performance this season. Turns out, Chamberlain has not been nearly as bad as his 5.66 ERA would indicate (his FIP is actually 2.66). On top of that FIP, and the argument Neyer makes, it's also worth noting that Chamberlain's BABIP this season is an incredibly unlucky and unsustainable .405, meaning that of the balls put in play against him, 40 percent are falling in for hits, whereas league average is 30 percent.

Of course this feels like little consolation for Yankee fans, who have watched him give up at least a run in quite a few of his performances this season. And for those who say, "well maybe his stuff isn't as good and people are just hitting the ball harder" Neyer responds by saying that his rate of giving up line-drives (very hard hit balls) is up, but only slightly, and he has maintained his velocity. So in conclusion, the jury is still out on Joba, but all signs point to unluckiness being the main culprit in explaining the rough season. In fact, this all may just be relative, in that Chamberlain may simply be a victim of a his own hot start to his career. Yankee fans want and expect 2007 Joba, the fire-breathing dragon who struck everyone out, but that isn't very realistic. Although he may never be that again, he certainly should and probably will be a very good reliever.

Trade Deadline- Padres

2010-07-20T14:26:00.000-04:00

The 2010 trade deadline is fast approaching, and for teams still in contention, it's time to decide whether or not they're for real--I'm looking at you, San Diego! The Padres are really in a catch-22, because frankly, they have no business playing the kind of baseball they've been playing. Going into the 2010 season the question wasn't whether or not they could win the division, but rather when was the right time to ship 1st baseman Adrian Gonzalez off for a slew a hot prospects to rebuild around. Fortunately, or unfortunately depending on how you view things, The Padres started the season hot, and have remained relatively hot all season. The obvious reason for their success is their pitching, which has been other worldly good. They are first in team ERA at 3.29 and second in FIP at 3.74.

Hitting, on the other hand, hasn't come easy for the Pads. They're toward the bottom third of the league in on-base percentage, are fourth worst in slugging and sixth worse in team average. On top of that, their team BABIP of .298, when viewed through the prism of a team that only really has one stud hitter (Gonzalez) indicates their performance thus far is probably about as good as they're going to be this season.

So what do you do if you're GM Jed Hoyer? The answer, probably, is ride the wave. Yes, Gonzalez will never have as much value as he has right now (he's making 4.75 Mil. this year with a club option of 5.5 Mil. for 2011). But past the midway point in the season, with the pitching doing extraordinarily well in a relatively weak division, Hoyer will most likely stick with what he has and make a run for the playoffs. If the Padres do fade, Gonzalez will still be an extremely attractive option for a team next season at 5.5 Mil, but the one-less year of player control probably means a more modest bounty for the Padres.

Stat Spotlight- ISO

2010-07-16T15:49:00.000-04:00

Here is a relatively simple one that has been around for quite some time, but is often overlooked by everyone. ISO, or isolated power, is a measure of a player's raw power in terms of extra base hits. It is calculated by subtracting a player's batting average from his slugging percentage, which ultimately, leaves you with a numeric value for the extra-base hits (power hits).

So what does ISO do that slugging percentage doesn't? The key, as noted above, is removing singles from the equation. By doing so, you have a better measure of a players "bang for buck." So if a player has a relatively low batting average, but still puts up an impressive slugging percentage, we know that he is bringing some value to the table. ISO makes seeing that value a bit easier.

Let's take, for instance, ISO favorite Adam Dunn. Dunn, a career .252 hitter, would be of little major league value as a 1st baseman if he didn't exhibit any power. In 2005 with the Reds, Dunn hit an unimpressive .247, but his .293 ISO showed that when he was making contact, it was often for extra-base hits. The flip side to an Adam Dunn is a player like Juan Pierre. Pierre for his career has consistently put up good or better batting averages (made evident by his .304 career BA) but his career ISO of .069 makes my little sister look like Dave Kingman. So although Pierre hits, his value needs to be adjusted based on his complete lack of power. That's the power and ease of ISO.

What's Wrong with Jason Bay?

2010-07-16T09:38:00.000-04:00

File this under "reader requested" entry. I was asked to explain on this blog where the Mets should position Jason Bay in the line-up, now that Carlos Beltran is back, to maximize his potential. The potential solution I was given was to bat Bay in front of, rather than behind Ike Davis, to give him some protection. Unfortunately for Met fans, I don't think a simple line-up shift can save Bay's season, because his problem isn't exactly an easy one to solve.

Well, identifying the problem is easy enough: Bay isn't hitting for any power. His season ISO of .158 is 75 points lower than his career average, and 111 points lower than the number he put up in 2009 (which only adds to the psychological trauma of the average Met fan, who saw that performance and thought it was what they were getting). Not coincidentally, Bay's Slugging percentage is also way down at .424, 87 points below his career average.

Now the hard part: why is this happening? Lining up and examining the usual suspects yields little insight. Injuries don't seem to be the issue, as Bay has played in all 86 games this season, accumulating 361 plate appearances. Unless there is a nagging injury that hasn't been disclosed, we have to eliminate it. We also can eliminate the "he's in a slump" explanation, because he really isn't. Sure, his .267 average and .357 OBP are a little low, and his BABIP has been a little high, but none of those numbers are too far off from career norms, and they certainly wouldn't be able to account for the total power outage we're seeing.

So if Bay is still hitting, and he isn't hitting for much power, we can begin to surmise that maybe the balls he is putting in play have been on the ground at a higher rate than usual. After all, you can't hit a home run on a ground ball to second, right? Unfortunately, that too is a dead end. On the season, Bay has been hitting ground balls 35.3 percent of the time and fly balls 45.4 percent of the time, compared to the 37.1 and 44.5 career averages. So actually, in terms of his ground ball to fly ball rate, Bay should be doing slightly more damage than usual in the power department.

But obviously, he isn't. His power has been comparable to that of a pre-pubescent girl--Just kidding, he's not Juan Pierre--and he's on pace to match last year's Met home run king, Daniel Murphy, with 12. Of course, what Bay shares with Murphy is their home ballpark, Citifield, a stadium with dimensions that make Central Park feel "homey." So then there it is, we have a clue that will lead to an answer. Citifield is eating Jason Bay home runs, like so many cookies smuggled into a fat camp. The problem there is, Bay's home/road splits show he is actually hitting for more power at home than on the road, to the tune of a .459/.388 SLG split.

My God, this man is infuriating! Now I know what Met fans feel--just kidding again, I know the warmth of a championship season-- but it is annoying. Maybe he's swinging at bad pitches? Fangraphs indicates he is swinging 6% more at balls out of the strike zone,and making more contact on those pitches, which would account for more bad balls put in play. Is that enough to account for all the lost power? I'm not sure, but I doubt it.

The truth is, Jason Bay just isn't having a very good season. Without any smoking gun, it's sort of hard to understand why. My best guess is it's mental, and at this point he's just pressing, which would explain the increased swings outside the strike zone. The good thing is, if it's mental, he could come out of it at any moment. The bad part is, if it's mental, he could get more and more bogged down. So, to answer the earlier part of the post, where to bat him, the answer is simple: anywhere, so long as it's ahead of Jeff Francouer and Rod Barajas!

ESPY Awards- "Play of the Year" Travesty

2010-07-15T09:55:00.000-04:00

Voice of the people my ass! That Brett Favre play that won was all well and good, but the "Fordham Flip" was way better (Fordham Alum biases aside). And to be completely frank, only one play has any right to be called, "Play of the Year"- Take a bow, Mark Buehrle, cause this is just bat-shit insane!

More On the Gonzalez-Escobar Trade

2010-07-15T09:45:00.001-04:00

Word about town today is that Yunel Escobar wasn't exactly blowing people away with his work ethic. From Buster Olney's blog today:

An Atlanta teammate once had a birthday, and when Yunel Escobar offered best wishes, that teammate told Escobar he knew exactly what present he wanted from the shortstop: Just play hard today.

That Braves players came to view consistent effort from the 27-year-old infielder as a gift is not a great reflection on Escobar, especially given the reputation of the Atlanta clubhouse. It's an easy place to exist, to thrive, and has been for many years. Bobby Cox likes players; some managers don't. And the most prominent veterans on the team, like Chipper Jones and Tim Hudson and Billy Wagner and Brian McCann, are all reasonable and relatively laid-back, tolerant of different personalities so long as the effort is there.

And too many times, the effort from Escobar was not evident, which is why the Braves decided to trade a younger shortstop with a theoretically higher ceiling for a 33-year-old shortstop.

Addition by subtraction seems to be the name of the game here; although if Escobar returns to the form he had the previous few seasons, he will absolutely be a better shortstop option than Gonzalez.

Alex Gonzalez Traded to the Braves

2010-07-14T12:38:00.000-04:00

In a 5 player trade, the Toronto Blue Jays send shortstop Alex Gonzalez, shortstop Tyler Pastornicky and pitcher Tim Collins to the Braves in exchange for shortstop Yunel Escobar and pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes. The deal at first glance doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense for the Braves, at least in the long-term, considering the ages of the 2 shortstops in the deal and the season both men are having.

Gonzalez, a 33 year-old known best for his fine glove work, has had something of a strange season for the Jays. Although he continues to show an inability to get on-base (career .294 OBP, .296 for the season) Gonzalez has, like every other Blue Jay, been hitting home-runs at an accelerated rate. In fact, Gonzalez's 17 first half home runs account for the second highest seasonal home-run total he's had, in his entire career (he hit 23 in 2004 for the Marlins). Historical precedent alone would indicate his power surge cannot be sustained, especially when he's leaving an environment where everyone seems to be hitting more homers than usual.

In contrast to Gonzalez, who's season has been something of a positive aberration--if only in 1 facet of his game-- Escobar's season has been an aberration of the negative variety. a career .291 hitter with a .368 career OBP, Escobar is having a very difficult time at the plate in 2010, hitting well below his career norms. Escobar is batting .238, a drop that also accounts for his below average .338 OBP., and his atrocious .284 slugging percentage have made him an offensive albatross. For a team in contention like the Braves, an upgrade for the stretch run is not necessarily a bad idea, but here's the problem: Gonzalez's superior, yet still flawed performance has just as good a chance of evaporating as Escobar's performance does of improving.

Because his numbers are so far below career norms, and because he's just been unlucky (a .270 BABIP) Escobar's chances of performing in the future like the 3.3 career WAR player that he is, are fairly good. On top of that, Escobar is only 27, and will be under Blue jay control until 2014, whereas Gonzalez is under contract only for this season. It is also worth noting that defensively, both players rate rather well in their respective UZR, with Escobar having the edge thus far this year. Overall, if we view the deal strictly in terms of the major league shortstops swapped, it seems short sighted on the Braves part to give up on Escobar so soon, and even in the short-term it still might not be particularly smart.

All-Star Game Musings

2010-07-13T21:19:00.000-04:00

-Ryan Howard is your N.L. starting DH. Something seems so right about that sentence.
-Speaking of Howard, he faces a tough lefty in his first at-bat and strikes out. Something seems even more right about that sentence.
-When Joe Buck has to introduce a clip where they play Vladimir Guerrero at-bats over a recording of children singing "Head, Shoulders, Knees and Toes," do you think a part of his soul dies?
- All-Star game means starters come in, throw caution to the wind and let it fly- Just saw Andy Pettitte hit 89! Wow!
- Josh Johnson just made Ichiro look silly.
- Fox is so tacky. The game's in California and every commercial break they play a "California" oriented song. I can't wait till they use, "Straight Outta Compton."
- David Wright seems to be representing the New York Mets and the Brooklyn hipsters. Nice shoes, ass.
- Beautiful diving catch by Ryan Braun, robbing Josh Hamilton of a double.
- Only upon leaving the RBI do I see just how much emphasis everyone puts on it. Every other stat out of Joe Buck's mouth is RBI related.
- Through 4 innings, no offense of note. Like I predicted, NL pitchers are just throwing gas, and the superior AL line-up appears over matched.
- Correction from an earlier post: Justin Verlander also has a k/9 above 8, at 8.58.
- Corey Hart is making a huge mistake with that beard. He needs to clean up his act and get rid of it. With blonde locks like that, he should be striving for this look.
- I'm on George Takei overload watching this game.
- And Charlie Manuel has brought in Hong-Chih Kuo. "The 2010 MLB All-Star Game: The Showcase of the Immortals!"
-All-Star lefty specialist Hung-Chih Kuo gives up a run. AL is up 1-0.
- Nice shot of Scott Boras lurking in his cartoon villain evil lair behind home plate, watching many of his dollar signs compete against one another.
- "Predators" looks awesome.
- I will see "Predators."
- Wait, if the Predators are in fact the ultimate hunters in the universe--a race of alien who's entire culture and existence is based on hunting--why do they always hunt us? If they really want to be the ultimate hunters, and challenge themselves, why don't they hunt each other?
- Oh, that's right, there's a baseball game going on. The AL just made a few substitutions. John Buck and his All-Star caliber .306 on-base percentage have entered the game. "The 2010 MLB All-Star Game: This One Counts?"
- If Girardi is a true baseball mastermind, he'll throw Lester for the next 4 innings.
- It's starting to dawn on me, at 10:33 eastern standard time, bottom of the 6th inning, that I've watched more than a half hour of an All-Star game.
- Opponents are hitting almost .300 against reliever Matt Capps on the season, and I'm watching him in an ALL-STAR GAME. Well, I guess there are more egregious All-Star selections, COUGH::OMAR INFANTE::COUGH.
- "Matt Capps was a Pirate last year, was non-tendered in the off season, signed with the Nationals, and now he's an All-Star"- Joe Buck. That sentence has significance, but not the significance that Joe Buck is giving it.
- Joe Buck is now telling a story about how Scott Rolen was verbally emasculated by Albert Pujols' son. I guess if he has to look like an idiot, he's taking some people down with him. "The 2010 MLB All-Star Game on Fox: What Does Dignity Mean?!"
- We've reached the point in the game where the match-ups are much less sexy. Matt Thornton vs. Marlon Byrd is not why people tuned in. Everyone knows they're watching for Michael Bourn vs. Jose Valverde, DUH!
- Brian McCann clears the bases against Matt Thornton to give the NL a 3-1 lead. The NL can smell victory for the first time in 14 years.
- Good thing the AL left Francisco Liriano at home. He definitely couldn't have helped at all.
- John Buck doubles off Adam Wainwright in attempt to make me eat my words, but I don't care John, because I know what you are!
-Top of the 8th inning, and the NL only has 2 position players left- The dynamic duo of Michael Bourn and Omar Infante. The AL only has 1 position player left- Alex Rodriguez.
-Jose Valverde warming, could we see the much heralded Valverde-Bourn match-up OMGFTEWLMFAOOOOOOO!?!?!?!?!?!
- Michael Bourn has entered the game! "The 2010 MLB All-Star Game: Because Every Team Requires 1 Representative, Regardless of Qualifications!"
-Sweet Jesus, here it is! Valverde starts Bourn off with a fastball for strike 1. Another fastball, fouled off for strike 2. Bourn's in the hole quickly. Splitter away from Valverde for a swinging strike 3. 3 pitches. That's what I waited for, this whole game? 3 god damn pitches? "The 2010 MLB All-Sta....nope"
- Alright, here we go. Broxton on to close it.
-Can't pinch hit for John Buck, he's the only catcher left. Well well well John, lets see you make a fool of me again! Buck bloops a single into right field, Marlon Byrd throws Ortiz out at second.
- Ian Kinsler flies out. A-Rod doesn't play. NL wins for the first time in 14 years. Good night!

2010 MLB All-Star Game: Can the NL Turn it Around?

2010-07-13T17:19:00.000-04:00

As has been well documented over the years, the NL hasn't performed very well in the all-star game. In fact, they haven't won it in 14 years. The disparity between the two leagues has been obvious- a product of many different factors, including the presence of the DH in the A.L. and excessive Yankee-Red Sox spending that has forced many teams who can't compete financially to step up their player development and scouting (which in effect, ushered in the era of sabermetrics).

But despite the remaining disparity, and the head-scratching selections Charlie Manuel made in shaping his end of the team (Lefty Specialist Arthur Rhodes?), The NL may have it's best chance in a long time to take the game and home field advantage in this years World Series. The reason fortune may change for the senior circuit is actually it's young, dynamic crop of pitchers. A staff featuring Ubaldo Jiminez, Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum and Adam Wainwright could account for 6-7 strong innings before Manuel would ever have to turn to a Roy Halladay or a Chris Carpenter. The A.L. has its fair share of young talents, but the crop the N.L. features this year is quite impressive.

In a game where every pitcher is used as a reliever, the ability to strike people out is an especially important facet of the game. Of the 4 young N.L. studs listed above, Jiminez, a 15 game first half winner (for what that's worth) actually has the worst strikeouts per 9 innings (8.01) and the worst FIP (3.13) and he's the starter. On the American League side, starters who can boast a k/9 rate higher than 8 include Jon Lester, Jered Weaver and Phil Hughes. However, only Lester has what could be considered comparable "stuff" to the N.L. guns. Obviously, one bad inning from one of these guys could spell death for either team, but having a fair amount of young, over powering pitching can't hurt.

George Steinbrenner Dead

2010-07-13T09:52:00.000-04:00

WCBS 880 in New York is reporting that Yankee Principle Owner George Steinbrenner has passed away after a massive heart attack at the age of 80. Steinbrenner, who had ceded control of the team to his children after the 2007 season, had been suffering with undisclosed medical issues for some time. He had been making little to no public appearances, and generally was only heard from via statements released to the public from his publicist.

Steinbrenner's legacy is a complicated matter, no surprise coming from an obviously complicated man. Since purchasing the Yankees from CBS in 1973 for 10 million dollars, Steinbrenner has had his fair share of ups and downs, including 7 world championships and 2 suspensions from baseball. His mindset, that nothing short of a world championship is success, has permeated into the psyche of all Yankee fans.

Stat Spotlight- BABIP: So Austin Jackson Isn't Ty Cobb?

2010-07-12T19:26:00.000-04:00

No. He is not. Austin Jackson is most certainly not Ty Cobb. Not to say he isn't or won't be a nice player, but Jackson is probably not the player that blew the league away in April, winning the A.L. rookie of the month honors. In fact a few days into May, Jackson was batting .377, an average that was surely a product of a hot start and a small sample size.

But how does one explain a "hot start" reasonably? How can you tell when a player is a truly great, transcendent hitter, bound to compete for a batting title, or just a guy who's getting lucky? Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you BABIP. Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is a statistic used to weed out the Ichiro's from the Ajax's. What BABIP does is it eliminates strike-outs, walks and sacrifice flies from a hitters batting average, leaving only the balls he actually puts in play to be averaged out. By doing this, teams are better able to gauge whether or not a hitter has had an exceptional amount of luck (balls dropping in for hits, winds carrying out to right field, playing the Nationals regularly), or an exceptional amount of bad luck (diving stops by the short stops, strong throws from the hole to nab the runner, playing a team of 9 Carl Crawford clones) over the course of a season.

Let's go back to Jackson. His .377 batting average in early May was high not just because he was hot with the bat, but also because he was getting exceptionally lucky, to the tune of a .532 BABIP (league average is around .300). By comparison, Ichiro's career BABIP is .358, obscenely high in it's own right, but certainly not close to .532. So where is Jackson today? Well as you might expect, due to his obvious early season luck and his propensity to swing and miss 28 percent of the time, that batting average has dropped to a more reasonable, but still acceptable .300. And his BABIP, well that dropped too, by .117 points to .415. Obviously, AJAX's luck has started to run out. The problem for Tigers fans is that unless Jackson is a better hitter than Ichiro, that current BABIP is still WAY too high to be sustained. His luck may have started to run out, but it's still got a long way to go before it's gone. Because of that, his pretty .300 BA probably won't be around much longer either.

Ed. Note: BABIP also works in assessing how lucky a pitcher has been, in the exact same way it works for hitters. If a pitcher is allowing BABIP's well above or well below that .300 mark, he's probably dealt with his fair share of luck, good or bad. However, if your pitcher maintains an extremely high BABIP against, then he's probably this guy.

All-Star Weekend Future's Game

2010-07-12T09:56:00.000-04:00

Over on ESPN.com, Keith Law posted his thoughts and observations from the Future's Game, held every All-Star weekend to showcase the top prospects in baseball. The thing about the game is the prospects seem to always be arbitrarily chosen by Major League Baseball, so although most of the candidates are worthy, there are always some head scratchers in the bunch.

That aside, the U.S. team beat the world team 9-1, behind Hank Conger's 3-run home run that earned him game MVP honors. Other stand out performances include Angels single-A super prospects Mike Trout, who despite being caught stealing did manage to run out a hustle double, and Eric Hosmer of the Royals system, who had 4 hits including 2 doubles. Current Major Leaguers Jason Heyward, Carlos Santana and Neftali Feliz all played in last year's game. The most likely player to be called up next from this year's game is Domonic Brown of the Phillies.

Lee update- Off to Texas

2010-07-09T17:32:00.000-04:00

It was obvious Cliff Lee was heading out of town, what wasn't obvious was where he'd be going. Now we know. The Mariners sent Lee to the Rangers for first baseman Justin Smoak and 3 other prospects. In addition to Lee, the Mariners agree to send reliever Mark Lowe and 2.5 million to the cash strapped Rangers, who are still in the process of being sold to a new ownership group.

While a deal to the Yankees would have made sense for both sides involved, this one appears to make even more sense. In Lee, the Rangers get a bonafide number 1 starter, who currently sports a 2.34 ERA and a 2.21 FIP. His K/ BB ratio of Nearly 15/1 is obscene, and although he's leaving a pitchers park for a hitters, his 7.73 K's per 9 innings and 0.43 home runs allowed per 9 innings are good signs that his success will continue despite the change of home venue. The Rangers, who were already in 1st in the West, have solidified themselves as the class of the division, for now.

For the Mariners, GM Jack Zduriencik has done exceptionally well, especially considering the unimpressive haul they surrendered to obtain Lee in the first place. Smoak, Baseball America's 14th best prospect entering the year, is a huge upgrade at a position the Mariners had no long term solution for. A switch hitter with a plus glove, Smoak's Major League numbers thus far haven't been particularly impressive, but he is a rookie, and his minor league numbers suggest he'll be a player who hits and gets on base, even if the power doesn't develop (despite some scouting reports saying the power will develop, his highest ISO rating in the minors was .153- good, not great). The Mariners also won't have to worry about Lee beating them year after year by trading him to a division rival, as he has stated he'll test free agency after the season no matter what. Without knowing the rest of the players involved, it's difficult to get the full effect of the deal. But for a player of Lee's caliber, a return that includes a young, potential All-Star 1st baseman is a pretty good start.

Cliff Lee- Former Mariner?

2010-07-09T12:00:00.000-04:00

The Yankees were said to be on the verge of acquired starting pitcher Cliff Lee on Friday, just hours before he was scheduled to pitch against them for the Mariners. The deal was to center around Yankees super-hitting prospect Jesus Montero, second baseman David Adams and a third, yet to be named player. Reportedly, talks between the two teams were non-existent before Yankees GM Brian Cashman decided Montero would be available in a package.

Newer reports say the talks broke down around the crop of prospects the Yankees would send along with Montero, although the deal may be revisited in the future. The potential here is win-win for both teams, with the Yankees keeping Lee away from other possible suitors (oh and he's been historically good this year too) and the Mariners getting much more than they initially surrendered for Lee with Montero alone.

Even if these two teams do not revisit the trade scenario, one thing is for sure- Cliff Lee isn't long for Seattle. The Mariners are currently 17 games below .500 and 16 games out of first in the AL West. Their offense has been terrible, and a huge bat like Montero's is very tempting, even if he's a year or two away.

RBI- The Whores to my Tiger Woods

2010-07-09T09:09:00.000-04:00

I'm having a fair amount of difficulty letting the RBI go. It's not that I don't see the inherent flaw there, I do, but it's just so easy, so pretty. We are so ingrained with it as fans, so conditioned to approve of what it's telling us about our hitters (if they have a lot of them, they are good) that we can't simply say goodbye just because it's the right thing to do. To be the better man, I have to let it go, even if all I want to do is send the RBI dirty texts.

RBI, as you may or may not know, doesn't really measure anything. The ability to drive in runs isn't really a skill set, because if no one is on base in front of you, how could you display that skill? Do the great RBI men lose their ability as hitters if no one is there? And are we to believe that some players elevate their performance in "key" situations, like the one presented with men on base? If that is the case, surely there would be a better way to measure it than the RBI. And that argument is based on the assumption that some players elevate themselves at certain times, or simply don't play as hard or concentrate as hard in other instances, a premise many smart baseball men don't subscribe to.

But the average baseball fan is not even remotely close to leaving the RBI, so I think the sabermetric crowd shouldn't be so quick to discount it either. In a vague, very remote and abstract way, RBI can be viewed as a useful tool in player evaluation, when viewed through the prism of line-up placement. For instance, the 3-4-5 hitters in a line-up who generally put up the most impressive RBI totals are usually the better hitters on the team, in terms of combining power and average. Similarly, those at the bottom of the line-up who in a given year put up impressive RBI totals could be viewed as men who did a lot with much less, and made the most of their opportunities. Conversely, if a middle of the order bat puts up low RBI totals, barring a complete meltdown from the 1-2 hitters in terms of OBP (see, caveats to the value=flaws) then we can surmise he did not perform up to snuff.

If that extremely unscientific method of evaluating RBI worth doesn't do it for you, then you can always use the "clutch hitter" approach we discussed earlier. If that falls short, you can be like me and just enjoy it like one would enjoy an Adam Sandler movie- shut your brain off and find happiness in something that makes no sense. The truth is, if you drive in a lot of runs, chances are you're a pretty good hitter. If you do it consistently year after year, the chances are even better that you're a good hitter. It's not fool proof, but you'll probably end up being right more often than not. And when you're not right, you'll see the folly in it all. The RBI might not make you a better fan, but it's still the most fun to take an Ambien and fool around with.

Swisher, Votto Earn Final All-Star Spots

2010-07-08T19:13:00.000-04:00

Usually, baseball fans are the ones who make the most egregious errors when it comes to All-Star balloting, but this year Charlie Manuel was not going to be outdone. In a rare instance of the fans correcting the baseball people, they elected Joey Votto to the NL All-Star team, correcting an oversight that would have been historic in it's gut-wrenching stupidity. Votto is having a superb season, posting a .417 OBP to go along with a .588 SLG percentage. According to WAR (Wins Above Replacement) Votto has been worth almost 4 wins to the Reds, who currently find themselves in contetion for the NL Central crown.

The case for Swisher is a bit less clear-cut, but he is having a fine season, with a .376 OBP and a .517 SLG percentage. Both his OBP and his batting average may be augmented thus far by some luck (a .344 BABIP, way above career norms) but any man who campaigns for himself like this has earned his spot.

Stat Spotlight- FIP: Because Players like Brad Hawpe Do Exist

2010-07-07T19:54:00.000-04:00

The best way to evaluate any player is to try and isolate their performance in relation to the rest of their team. The inherent problem with RBI as a measurement of hitting is that it is completely predicated on people being on-base for the hitter. 2 players on opposing teams can hit 2-out doubles off the wall, but if one of those players has men on base, he gets the RBI, despite the identical hitting performances. ERA, the best way to gauge pitching performance for the casual fan, suffers from the same problem. Although it does account for fielding errors (differentiating between runs and earned runs) it still factors fielding into the equation, something a pitcher can't control at all.

It is because of this faulty premise on which ERA is built, we have FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Created by Tom Tango, FIP mathematically assess all the major statistical categories for which a pitcher is solely responsible: walks, intentional walks, hit by pitches, strikeouts, home runs allowed, and innings pitched. Then, through some magical formula that at first glance makes no apparent sense to me, it creates a number that is weighted to look like an average run of the mill ERA,allowing for greater accessibility by the baseball masses.

Applying FIP to pitcher evaluation yield new ways of analyzing talent. Edwin Jackson's 2009 season, in which he posted a 3.64 ERA was hailed by many as the realization of his top of the rotation potential, after years of ERA's hovering around 5. But when fielding is taken out of the equation, we find that Jackson's '09 performance was actually a little more than half a run worse than what ERA indicated it was (FIP of 4.28). Conversely, Jackson's 2010 season thus far in which he's posted a 4.92 ERA has actually been, according to FIP, better than his previous season, despite the much uglier ERA (4.17 FIP).

Of course not every test case is going to look as wildly varied as Jackson's. Some players, like the Giants Tim Lincecum, have had ERA's and FIP's that are almost completely even statistically. Even Jackson's career ERA and career FIP are only off by .06 (Some of his early years with atrocious ERA's weren't as bad as you'd think). So ultimately what FIP does is take some of the guess work out of player evaluation. Instead of guessing which Edwin Jackson is going to show up, based on erratic ERA's, we have a smoother picture that tells us what Jackson really is, and has almost always been- a pitcher who will give up roughly 4 and a half runs per start.

Rod Barajas- I Told You So

2010-07-07T11:15:00.001-04:00

If I have to hear one more Met fan tell me what a bargain Rod Barajas has been, I'm going to castrate....myself. The guilt of rearing a child in such a world would be unforgiving. Barajas was signed during the great Met back-up catcher sign-a-thon of 2009-2010, and began the season with a bang by hitting 11 home runs before June. Of course, home runs were really the only thing Barajas was hitting, other than fly-balls and nothing, so his on-base percentage hovered around his atrocious career norm of .283. If that OBP didn't make you vomit, surely the excitement of the typical Met fan over this performance would. One fan told me, "He's our number 8 hitter, he doesn't need to get on-base."

Excusing a hitter from doing the one thing he is intended to do is hilarious in and of itself, although this hair-brained notion did present an unintended argument- How much slugging is necessary to overlook a complete inability to get on base? Before reality set in and Barajas stopped hitting home-runs (since May 31st he has hit exactly 0) he had a more than sufficient .552 slugging percentage to go along with his sub-.300 OBP, giving him a 260 ISO. This was all a small sample size, but does the impressive power override the pathetic OBP? Barajas won't be able to sustain the power anyway (his slugging percentage currently stands at .447) so we won't know for sure just how valuable his first 2 months performance is, if extrapolated for an entire season. Historical cases have shown certain players with anemic OBP can be valuable with impressive ISO (Dave Kingman's 1976 season) but even that type of production only has a finite amount of value. In most instances players who can't get on-base generally also cannot sustain that type of power long-term, or aren't given the opportunity to show that they can sustain it because they don't get on enough.

So, for the moment, the findings are inconclusive. what we can conclusively show is that his numeric regression to his career norms indicate Rod Barajas is no Joe Mauer. Hell, this year he isn't even Miguel Olivo. Now, onto more important questions, like how does Rod Barajas continue to find work?

The Best There Is....

2010-07-07T10:47:00.000-04:00

Anytime you go to a ballpark and see a player's face superimposed onto the body of Bret "The Hitman" Hart, it's a good day.

Ryan Howard-The Ft. Sumter of Baseball

2010-07-06T21:40:00.000-04:00

If I had to choose the best place to start, it'd be Phillies slugger Ryan Howard. There isn't a player who better personifies the growing gap between the average fan and the know-it-all. Howard, for the uninitiated, is the 1st baseman for the Phillies who has consistently put up monster home-run and RBI totals since being called up for regular duty in 2005. Recently, he was awarded for his fine efforts with a 5 year, 125-million dollar contract extension that will ostensibly be worth no less than 135 million due to a sixth, option year which has a 10-million dollar buyout. Basically, Howard is being paid like one of the ten most valuable players in baseball, and why shouldn't he be? He's hit 235 home runs and driven in 512 runs since '05, while maintaining a batting average around the .280 mark. On top of that, his on-base percentage and slugging percentages have been in line with some of the best sluggers in the game. He's a beast, right?

Well, sort of. In the interim, Howard is certainly a high functioning middle of the order bat. ISO, a statistic that measures isolated power output (Done by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage), has always favored Howard. His career number of .296 kicks the living hell out of most other ISO contenders, a product of Howard's enormous frame and a home ballpark that makes the flea circus look like Las Vegas. But Howard's size may also ultimately be his undoing. In baseball circles, players like this are known as "bad body players"- those with a higher risk of breaking down in the long run. At 31, Howard's days as a mediocre first baseman (career UZR rating of -6) may already be numbered. By the time this contract reaches it's final years, he'll probably be a DH without the comfort of playing in a DH league.

Statistically, Howard also presents some glaring red-flags, mostly in the form of his inability to consistently hit left-handed pitching (career .229 hitter against lefties) and as was mentioned earlier, his fielding woes. He has also dealt with concerns about hitting the breaking pitch, which explains why nearly %35 of the pitches he has seen this year are either curveballs or sliders. Put it all together, and the Phillies have paid a premium for a player who is not premium worthy. Slugging first basemen aren't exactly difficult to find- but if you love the RBI, this is your man!

In The Beginning...

2010-07-06T20:38:00.001-04:00

Mission Statement- Despite how juvenile this blog will undoubtedly be at times, it is intended to serve a greater purpose. As an avid baseball fan, I've noticed the growing rift between the average fan who chugs a beer and does a Ric Flair impression in the bleachers at Yankee Stadium and the executive who sits in a luxury box ordering security to remove said fan. It's a disconnect that has often been perpetuated by mainstream media, who seem to advocate for one side or the other, with little tolerance for the alternate opinion.

Of course, I'm talking about sabermetrics. The Major League Baseball teams of the 21st century slog through endless amounts of data, meticulous scouting reports, regression analysis, home/road splits, lefty/righty splits, WAR, BABIP, VORP, etc etc, while all the while the casual fan focuses on the classics: RBI, Runs, Batting Average. The disconnect is palpable and the worst part is no one seems intent on finding a peace between the two-sides.

Enter, this blog. It's purpose is bridge the gap between the opiate of the masses and the arcane. To try and help those who still own stock in the trolley find a new path, driving the hover-car. This blog is about where we've been, and where we're going. Creationists argue against evolution theory because it has gaps- I hope to fill a small gap that I believe is going unfilled. Why me? Because I'm relatively new to the baseball philosophies of today, just like many others. Yes, I was once like you, arguing that J.D. Drew was a terrible signing by Boston because he had had only one 100-RBI season. But I have begun my transition, and welcome many others to follow suit. There's a part in the movie "District 9" where the government/corporation/ some evil entity that I can't currently recall needs to kill and dissect the main character, because he is at the critical threshold between his humanity and becoming a prawn. I believe I am at that same point in my baseball fandom. So before I turn into Keith Law, allow me to kill and dissect myself, for you the reader, while there is still some Mike Francesa in me.