Are the Yankees Underdogs?

A point-counterpoint from ESPN today about whether or not we can classify the Yankees as underdogs heading into the season. I'm not entirely sure what definition of underdog ESPN is using, but if it's...

–noun

1.

a person who is expected to lose in a contest or conflict.

then no, the Yankees are not underdogs. PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus system of projecting player and team performance through advanced metrics, has the Yanks winning 91 games- enough to win the wild card but 1 game worse than the Red Sox for the division. Of course, PECOTA isn't the be all and end all of baseball and, really, predicting how a division will ultimately fare is pretty impossible considering all of the different variables that will affect teams (injuries, trades, under/over performance of players, etc.). But because it's fun to predict (as I'll be doing here shortly) we fans do it, and I doubt you'll find a prediction that has the Yankees finishing outside of wild card contention. Is this a strong Yankee team compared to previous seasons? No, their pitching staff has holes so big not even Bartolo Colon's fat ass can fill them, and they're old. That being said, they're still going to score runs (they led the league in runs scored last year with 7 of their 9 main hitters under-performing) and, optimistically, the bullpen may shorten enough games to the point that you only need a mediocre performance from a starter that only lasts 5 innings for a win.

The AL East may be more wide open than usual this year, unless the Red Sox run away with things, which is a possibility. If you want to topple the mighty Yankees, this is the year to do it. Too bad the Orioles and Jays are still a few years away. The Rays lost Carl Crawford, but have enough organizational depth to make life difficult for both Boston and New York. I have no problem calling a team other than the Yankees the favorites, but it's a stretch to call them underdogs.

More Baseball

Adam Wainwright may have a significant elbow injury. Huge, gigantic blow to the Cardinals. Wainwright has become one of the best starters in baseball the last couple of seasons, with very good K/BB ratio's, sterling ERA's and a WAR of 5.7 or better. This could reshape the entire division.

ChiSox GM Kenny Williams says $30 million annually for 1 player is 'asinine.' There are some stats out there that are able to affix exact dollar amounts to player performance that I'm not well versed in, so without that knowledge I can't definitively say if he's right or wrong. That being said, I think he's probably right, at least to a certain degree. Albert Pujols' performance may be worth $30 million dollars annually, but is it worth it for the Pirates to pay that price?

I've read a lot of articles saying the Jose Bautista deal was good for both the player and the Blue Jays, but I'm still skeptical. None of the articles seem overly concerned with the fact that Bautista is on the down side of 30, and they all seem happy to gloss over the lack of a track record or the fact that every Blue Jay regular had a surge in power last season.

Yankee Icon Carl Pavano Re-signs With Twins

The Twins reaches a 2-year, $16.5 million deal with Carl Pavano, he of the hipster mustache movement and a notable former bust with the Yankees. Funnily enough, word is the Yankees were in on Pavano before this deal was made, which should tell you a little something about the possibility of Sergio Mitre being a 5th starter in the AL East. Assuming health (HA!) the deal is, well, what it is: about $8 million annually for an innings eating sinkerballer who projects to have an ERA and FIP a little above 4. A front of the rotation ace he is not, but you can certainly do worse than Pavano, and since the Twins should find themselves in contention for the Central crown this season, bringing Pavano back is a fine move. There is obvious risk here for the Twins beyond the fact that Pavano can injury himself answering the phone. He just turned 35 and will be 36 when the contract expires, hardly a pitcher's peak performance years (generally speaking). The Twins have done a fabulous job of growing into a mid-market team from a small market club, and their recent expansion of payroll is admirable. But the Twins aren't the Yankees, and if Pavano goes down tomorrow with an infected naval ring piercing and doesn't return for 2 seasons-as he is capable of doing- the Twins will not have the budget flexibility to replace him to the tune of $8 million annually.

Fangraphs compares Pavano to Jake Westbrook, and how they're basically the same thing. It is interesting that conventional wisdom said Pavano would land the bigger deal based on nothing in particular.

More Delightful Random Baseball For Your Reading Pleasure...

The Yankee bullpen is quite expensive. If the idea is to compensate for not having a 4th or 5th starter by shortening games to 6 innings, color me skeptical. 3 situational lefties, who may face 2 batters or less with each appearance, making a total of $9.2 million? Who is your bullpen innings eater, Joba?

The Dodgers show how not to create a platoon.

The Padres signed Chad Qualls, and in related news this blog struggled with whether or not that was actual news worthy of posting.

Happy belated birthday to the mustache Carl Pavano's mustache wishes it could be, but can't because true mustache greatness is not born of irony.

Mike Pelfrey is your 2011 Mets opening day starter. If Pelfrey were on the Phillies his start would be skipped till mid-April due to the early season schedule. Just sayin'.

Here's a look at the 2011 MLB Draft's first round order. As of now, the name to know is Anthony Rendon.