Yanks Acquire Austin Kearns

The Yankees acquired outfielder Austin Kearns on Friday for a player to be named later, according to sources. Kearns, who at one time was a top prospect with the Reds, is hitting .272 with a .354 OBP this season playing everyday in Cleveland. From ESPN.com:

"We can use him a lot of different ways because he's a guy who's used to playing every day," said Girardi, who expects to have Kearns available for Saturday night's game against the Rays. According to Girardi, Yankees GM Brian Cashman first mentioned the possibility of acquiring Kearns on Friday afternoon. Cashman did not immediately return a phone call seeking comment.

"It'll give me a chance to rest some of our left-handed hitting guys," Girardi said. "We're in the midst right now of 37 games in 38 days, so I won't have to run the same guys out there every day. You can keep them healthy and physically strong, because we're going to need them."

Adding Kearns will necessitate the Yankees' making a roster move, and although Girardi said he was undecided who would be sent down in order to make room, the likeliest candidates are Juan Miranda or Colin Curtis, both of whom have been used in the role Girardi envisions for Kearns.

Kearns is nothing to get excited about, but like Girardi said, he does add flexibility to a line-up that has to play a lot of games over the next 5 weeks. Kearns is also a menial bench upgrade over miranda or Curtis, and his presence gives Girardi another right-handed bat off the bench to go with Marcus Thames. For the cost (practically nothing) it's a fine move.

Roy Oswalt, the Astros and the Phillies Attempt to Make Me Look Like a Fool

Well it's not going to work, alright! Because I said the biggest thing holding this deal up was the economics of Oswalt's insistence on having his 2012 option picked up and 16 million, which espn.com is reporting they ultimately did not have to do. Oswalt's desire to leave the Bermuda Triangle was powerful enough that he agreed not to have the option picked up by the Phillies, who will instead pay him a 2 million dollar buyout.

In exchange for Oswalt, The Phillies sent pitcher J.A. Happ and 2 prospects, outfielder Anthony Gose and shortstop Jonathan Villar to Houston with a significant amount of cash. At first glance this seems like a great deal for the Phillies. Not only did they not give up their best prospect, outfielder Domonic Brown, they also will reportedly get an extra 11 million dollars from Houston to help pay for Oswalt's pro-rated 2010 salary and his 2011 salary, totaling around 23 million. So essentially, the Phillies get a year and a half of Oswalt for 12 million, well below market value for a pitcher still in his prime.

The deal did not appear great for the Astros, but they did immediately ship Gose off to Toronto for 3B prospect Brett Wallace, a player Baseball America ranked the 27th best prospect in baseball. Currently, Wallace is hitting .301 with 18 home-runs in triple-A. Happ, a lefty who works in the low-90's, was a darling of the Phillie faithful last year when he posted a 2.93 ERA, but he didn't miss a ton of bats, and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.33 was uninspired. Happ's 2010 has been mired with injury, and his 1.76 ERA doesn't go well with the 5.17 FIP he has (small sample size of 15 innings, I know). Overall, looks like the Phillies did well, for this season and the next.

Roy Oswalt is Good (And Other Fairly Obvious Trade Deadline Observations)

The scuttlebutt around the league right now is that Roy Oswalt will not be leaving the black-hole, baseball oblivion of Houston anytime soon. Oswalt has made it clear that he will only waive his no-trade clause if his 16-million dollar option for the 2012 season is picked up by the acquiring team. Unfortunately, for whomever would like to acquire him, that totally sucks. Oswalt has said he's willing to restructure the option in an attempt to make things more appealing, but the bottom line is most teams will be priced out no matter what.

Demands like that make you wonder if Oswalt really wants out of Houston, a team so bad they've asked Walter Matthau to manage them (OMG ROFLMAO!!!). Any team in contention would be happy to have him however. Oswalt's FIP is better than it's been in 4 years, and his K/9 is the best it's been since his rookie season in 2001. Even Oswalt's contract (the remaining pro-rated 2010 salary and 16 mill. for 2011) isn't terribly daunting for most major market teams, especially if the Astros decided to kick in some cash on their end.

But that whole 2012 option thing really muddles things. It's hard to know what Oswalt means when he says he's willing to "restructure," but unless he means 'defer for many years' or 'take a pay cut' chances are the reconfigured deal will still cost his new team a pretty penny in 2012, something they may not be able to afford. For instance, the Phillies have been in on Oswalt from the start, but their current financial situation has them considering moving right fielder Jason Werth in the middle of a pennant race because they won't be able to afford him after this season (but they can afford that glorified DH they have at 1st base for premium player money, but I digress). In theory, Werth could command an annual salary at or around Oswalt's figure for the next 2 seasons, which makes you wonder why they think Werth is too expensive but Oswalt isn't.

Bottom line seems to be that Roy Oswalt probably won't leave Houston this year, and if his 2012 contract demands continue, they probably won't find it easy to move him next year either. Good thing Houston is going to turn it around quickly with their phenomenal farm system!

Dan Haren to the Angels

The Los Angelos Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles county, state of California, United States of America acquired pitcher Dan Haren from the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday for pitcher Joe Saunders and 3 minor leaguers. On the surface, Haren isn't having a season that qualifies as "Ace status," what with a 4.60 ERA and a 7-8 record. Unfortunately that assessment of Haren is brain dead, because we here at saberdummies know that ERA is not the be all and end all of pitching quality, and win-loss record is largely irrelevant due to how reliant it is on team performance and not individual performance.

You can see where I'm going here. Haren has had a decent season, if unlucky, with the best strike-out rate of his career (9.21 K/9). His problem, as has been his problem for some time, is his penchant for giving up the long ball. His 14.1 percent HR/FB rate (meaning 14 percent of the fly balls he gives up leaves the park) is the highest of his career, and he isn't stranding the runners he puts on base with the same frequency of the last 3 seasons.

Dave Cameron at fangraphs had a good piece about why many scouts don't view Haren as an ace; namely his impeccable control. Perhaps if he threw a bit more out of the strike zone, he wouldn't give up as many home runs. Going to the AL probably won't help either, although Arizona's home ballpark wasn't exactly conducive to a lot of fly balls. We need to remember however that Haren's FIP is more than a half-run better than his ERA, and that strike-out rate will work well anywhere. Factoring in career norms, we can surmise Haren probably has some better pitching in him, and that luck of his will probably change too (.355 BABIP).

Overall, the Angels did well in acquiring a pitcher with good stuff, great control, and a workable contract for the next few seasons. In my estimation, Haren is not exactly an ace, but he can certainly be an effective number 2, who gives you ace-like stuff relatively often.

Joba Chamberlain is Sucking (Sort of)

Great post from July 20th on Rob Neyer's espn blog about Joba Chamberlain's unimpressive performance this season. Turns out, Chamberlain has not been nearly as bad as his 5.66 ERA would indicate (his FIP is actually 2.66). On top of that FIP, and the argument Neyer makes, it's also worth noting that Chamberlain's BABIP this season is an incredibly unlucky and unsustainable .405, meaning that of the balls put in play against him, 40 percent are falling in for hits, whereas league average is 30 percent.

Of course this feels like little consolation for Yankee fans, who have watched him give up at least a run in quite a few of his performances this season. And for those who say, "well maybe his stuff isn't as good and people are just hitting the ball harder" Neyer responds by saying that his rate of giving up line-drives (very hard hit balls) is up, but only slightly, and he has maintained his velocity. So in conclusion, the jury is still out on Joba, but all signs point to unluckiness being the main culprit in explaining the rough season. In fact, this all may just be relative, in that Chamberlain may simply be a victim of a his own hot start to his career. Yankee fans want and expect 2007 Joba, the fire-breathing dragon who struck everyone out, but that isn't very realistic. Although he may never be that again, he certainly should and probably will be a very good reliever.

Trade Deadline- Padres

The 2010 trade deadline is fast approaching, and for teams still in contention, it's time to decide whether or not they're for real--I'm looking at you, San Diego! The Padres are really in a catch-22, because frankly, they have no business playing the kind of baseball they've been playing. Going into the 2010 season the question wasn't whether or not they could win the division, but rather when was the right time to ship 1st baseman Adrian Gonzalez off for a slew a hot prospects to rebuild around. Fortunately, or unfortunately depending on how you view things, The Padres started the season hot, and have remained relatively hot all season. The obvious reason for their success is their pitching, which has been other worldly good. They are first in team ERA at 3.29 and second in FIP at 3.74.

Hitting, on the other hand, hasn't come easy for the Pads. They're toward the bottom third of the league in on-base percentage, are fourth worst in slugging and sixth worse in team average. On top of that, their team BABIP of .298, when viewed through the prism of a team that only really has one stud hitter (Gonzalez) indicates their performance thus far is probably about as good as they're going to be this season.

So what do you do if you're GM Jed Hoyer? The answer, probably, is ride the wave. Yes, Gonzalez will never have as much value as he has right now (he's making 4.75 Mil. this year with a club option of 5.5 Mil. for 2011). But past the midway point in the season, with the pitching doing extraordinarily well in a relatively weak division, Hoyer will most likely stick with what he has and make a run for the playoffs. If the Padres do fade, Gonzalez will still be an extremely attractive option for a team next season at 5.5 Mil, but the one-less year of player control probably means a more modest bounty for the Padres.

Stat Spotlight- ISO

Here is a relatively simple one that has been around for quite some time, but is often overlooked by everyone. ISO, or isolated power, is a measure of a player's raw power in terms of extra base hits. It is calculated by subtracting a player's batting average from his slugging percentage, which ultimately, leaves you with a numeric value for the extra-base hits (power hits).

So what does ISO do that slugging percentage doesn't? The key, as noted above, is removing singles from the equation. By doing so, you have a better measure of a players "bang for buck." So if a player has a relatively low batting average, but still puts up an impressive slugging percentage, we know that he is bringing some value to the table. ISO makes seeing that value a bit easier.

Let's take, for instance, ISO favorite Adam Dunn. Dunn, a career .252 hitter, would be of little major league value as a 1st baseman if he didn't exhibit any power. In 2005 with the Reds, Dunn hit an unimpressive .247, but his .293 ISO showed that when he was making contact, it was often for extra-base hits. The flip side to an Adam Dunn is a player like Juan Pierre. Pierre for his career has consistently put up good or better batting averages (made evident by his .304 career BA) but his career ISO of .069 makes my little sister look like Dave Kingman. So although Pierre hits, his value needs to be adjusted based on his complete lack of power. That's the power and ease of ISO.

What's Wrong with Jason Bay?

File this under "reader requested" entry. I was asked to explain on this blog where the Mets should position Jason Bay in the line-up, now that Carlos Beltran is back, to maximize his potential. The potential solution I was given was to bat Bay in front of, rather than behind Ike Davis, to give him some protection. Unfortunately for Met fans, I don't think a simple line-up shift can save Bay's season, because his problem isn't exactly an easy one to solve.

Well, identifying the problem is easy enough: Bay isn't hitting for any power. His season ISO of .158 is 75 points lower than his career average, and 111 points lower than the number he put up in 2009 (which only adds to the psychological trauma of the average Met fan, who saw that performance and thought it was what they were getting). Not coincidentally, Bay's Slugging percentage is also way down at .424, 87 points below his career average.

Now the hard part: why is this happening? Lining up and examining the usual suspects yields little insight. Injuries don't seem to be the issue, as Bay has played in all 86 games this season, accumulating 361 plate appearances. Unless there is a nagging injury that hasn't been disclosed, we have to eliminate it. We also can eliminate the "he's in a slump" explanation, because he really isn't. Sure, his .267 average and .357 OBP are a little low, and his BABIP has been a little high, but none of those numbers are too far off from career norms, and they certainly wouldn't be able to account for the total power outage we're seeing.

So if Bay is still hitting, and he isn't hitting for much power, we can begin to surmise that maybe the balls he is putting in play have been on the ground at a higher rate than usual. After all, you can't hit a home run on a ground ball to second, right? Unfortunately, that too is a dead end. On the season, Bay has been hitting ground balls 35.3 percent of the time and fly balls 45.4 percent of the time, compared to the 37.1 and 44.5 career averages. So actually, in terms of his ground ball to fly ball rate, Bay should be doing slightly more damage than usual in the power department.

But obviously, he isn't. His power has been comparable to that of a pre-pubescent girl--Just kidding, he's not Juan Pierre--and he's on pace to match last year's Met home run king, Daniel Murphy, with 12. Of course, what Bay shares with Murphy is their home ballpark, Citifield, a stadium with dimensions that make Central Park feel "homey." So then there it is, we have a clue that will lead to an answer. Citifield is eating Jason Bay home runs, like so many cookies smuggled into a fat camp. The problem there is, Bay's home/road splits show he is actually hitting for more power at home than on the road, to the tune of a .459/.388 SLG split.

My God, this man is infuriating! Now I know what Met fans feel--just kidding again, I know the warmth of a championship season-- but it is annoying. Maybe he's swinging at bad pitches? Fangraphs indicates he is swinging 6% more at balls out of the strike zone,and making more contact on those pitches, which would account for more bad balls put in play. Is that enough to account for all the lost power? I'm not sure, but I doubt it.

The truth is, Jason Bay just isn't having a very good season. Without any smoking gun, it's sort of hard to understand why. My best guess is it's mental, and at this point he's just pressing, which would explain the increased swings outside the strike zone. The good thing is, if it's mental, he could come out of it at any moment. The bad part is, if it's mental, he could get more and more bogged down. So, to answer the earlier part of the post, where to bat him, the answer is simple: anywhere, so long as it's ahead of Jeff Francouer and Rod Barajas!

ESPY Awards- "Play of the Year" Travesty

Voice of the people my ass! That Brett Favre play that won was all well and good, but the "Fordham Flip" was way better (Fordham Alum biases aside). And to be completely frank, only one play has any right to be called, "Play of the Year"- Take a bow, Mark Buehrle, cause this is just bat-shit insane!

More On the Gonzalez-Escobar Trade

Word about town today is that Yunel Escobar wasn't exactly blowing people away with his work ethic. From Buster Olney's blog today:

An Atlanta teammate once had a birthday, and when Yunel Escobar offered best wishes, that teammate told Escobar he knew exactly what present he wanted from the shortstop: Just play hard today.

That Braves players came to view consistent effort from the 27-year-old infielder as a gift is not a great reflection on Escobar, especially given the reputation of the Atlanta clubhouse. It's an easy place to exist, to thrive, and has been for many years. Bobby Cox likes players; some managers don't. And the most prominent veterans on the team, like Chipper Jones and Tim Hudson and Billy Wagner and Brian McCann, are all reasonable and relatively laid-back, tolerant of different personalities so long as the effort is there.

And too many times, the effort from Escobar was not evident, which is why the Braves decided to trade a younger shortstop with a theoretically higher ceiling for a 33-year-old shortstop.

Addition by subtraction seems to be the name of the game here; although if Escobar returns to the form he had the previous few seasons, he will absolutely be a better shortstop option than Gonzalez.

Alex Gonzalez Traded to the Braves

In a 5 player trade, the Toronto Blue Jays send shortstop Alex Gonzalez, shortstop Tyler Pastornicky and pitcher Tim Collins to the Braves in exchange for shortstop Yunel Escobar and pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes. The deal at first glance doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense for the Braves, at least in the long-term, considering the ages of the 2 shortstops in the deal and the season both men are having.

Gonzalez, a 33 year-old known best for his fine glove work, has had something of a strange season for the Jays. Although he continues to show an inability to get on-base (career .294 OBP, .296 for the season) Gonzalez has, like every other Blue Jay, been hitting home-runs at an accelerated rate. In fact, Gonzalez's 17 first half home runs account for the second highest seasonal home-run total he's had, in his entire career (he hit 23 in 2004 for the Marlins). Historical precedent alone would indicate his power surge cannot be sustained, especially when he's leaving an environment where everyone seems to be hitting more homers than usual.

In contrast to Gonzalez, who's season has been something of a positive aberration--if only in 1 facet of his game-- Escobar's season has been an aberration of the negative variety. a career .291 hitter with a .368 career OBP, Escobar is having a very difficult time at the plate in 2010, hitting well below his career norms. Escobar is batting .238, a drop that also accounts for his below average .338 OBP., and his atrocious .284 slugging percentage have made him an offensive albatross. For a team in contention like the Braves, an upgrade for the stretch run is not necessarily a bad idea, but here's the problem: Gonzalez's superior, yet still flawed performance has just as good a chance of evaporating as Escobar's performance does of improving.

Because his numbers are so far below career norms, and because he's just been unlucky (a .270 BABIP) Escobar's chances of performing in the future like the 3.3 career WAR player that he is, are fairly good. On top of that, Escobar is only 27, and will be under Blue jay control until 2014, whereas Gonzalez is under contract only for this season. It is also worth noting that defensively, both players rate rather well in their respective UZR, with Escobar having the edge thus far this year. Overall, if we view the deal strictly in terms of the major league shortstops swapped, it seems short sighted on the Braves part to give up on Escobar so soon, and even in the short-term it still might not be particularly smart.

All-Star Game Musings

-Ryan Howard is your N.L. starting DH. Something seems so right about that sentence.
-Speaking of Howard, he faces a tough lefty in his first at-bat and strikes out. Something seems even more right about that sentence.
-When Joe Buck has to introduce a clip where they play Vladimir Guerrero at-bats over a recording of children singing "Head, Shoulders, Knees and Toes," do you think a part of his soul dies?
- All-Star game means starters come in, throw caution to the wind and let it fly- Just saw Andy Pettitte hit 89! Wow!
- Josh Johnson just made Ichiro look silly.
- Fox is so tacky. The game's in California and every commercial break they play a "California" oriented song. I can't wait till they use, "Straight Outta Compton."
- David Wright seems to be representing the New York Mets and the Brooklyn hipsters. Nice shoes, ass.
- Beautiful diving catch by Ryan Braun, robbing Josh Hamilton of a double.
- Only upon leaving the RBI do I see just how much emphasis everyone puts on it. Every other stat out of Joe Buck's mouth is RBI related.
- Through 4 innings, no offense of note. Like I predicted, NL pitchers are just throwing gas, and the superior AL line-up appears over matched.
- Correction from an earlier post: Justin Verlander also has a k/9 above 8, at 8.58.
- Corey Hart is making a huge mistake with that beard. He needs to clean up his act and get rid of it. With blonde locks like that, he should be striving for this look.
- I'm on George Takei overload watching this game.
- And Charlie Manuel has brought in Hong-Chih Kuo. "The 2010 MLB All-Star Game: The Showcase of the Immortals!"
-All-Star lefty specialist Hung-Chih Kuo gives up a run. AL is up 1-0.
- Nice shot of Scott Boras lurking in his cartoon villain evil lair behind home plate, watching many of his dollar signs compete against one another.
- "Predators" looks awesome.
- I will see "Predators."
- Wait, if the Predators are in fact the ultimate hunters in the universe--a race of alien who's entire culture and existence is based on hunting--why do they always hunt us? If they really want to be the ultimate hunters, and challenge themselves, why don't they hunt each other?
- Oh, that's right, there's a baseball game going on. The AL just made a few substitutions. John Buck and his All-Star caliber .306 on-base percentage have entered the game. "The 2010 MLB All-Star Game: This One Counts?"
- If Girardi is a true baseball mastermind, he'll throw Lester for the next 4 innings.
- It's starting to dawn on me, at 10:33 eastern standard time, bottom of the 6th inning, that I've watched more than a half hour of an All-Star game.
- Opponents are hitting almost .300 against reliever Matt Capps on the season, and I'm watching him in an ALL-STAR GAME. Well, I guess there are more egregious All-Star selections, COUGH::OMAR INFANTE::COUGH.
- "Matt Capps was a Pirate last year, was non-tendered in the off season, signed with the Nationals, and now he's an All-Star"- Joe Buck. That sentence has significance, but not the significance that Joe Buck is giving it.
- Joe Buck is now telling a story about how Scott Rolen was verbally emasculated by Albert Pujols' son. I guess if he has to look like an idiot, he's taking some people down with him. "The 2010 MLB All-Star Game on Fox: What Does Dignity Mean?!"
- We've reached the point in the game where the match-ups are much less sexy. Matt Thornton vs. Marlon Byrd is not why people tuned in. Everyone knows they're watching for Michael Bourn vs. Jose Valverde, DUH!
- Brian McCann clears the bases against Matt Thornton to give the NL a 3-1 lead. The NL can smell victory for the first time in 14 years.
- Good thing the AL left Francisco Liriano at home. He definitely couldn't have helped at all.
- John Buck doubles off Adam Wainwright in attempt to make me eat my words, but I don't care John, because I know what you are!
-Top of the 8th inning, and the NL only has 2 position players left- The dynamic duo of Michael Bourn and Omar Infante. The AL only has 1 position player left- Alex Rodriguez.
-Jose Valverde warming, could we see the much heralded Valverde-Bourn match-up OMGFTEWLMFAOOOOOOO!?!?!?!?!?!
- Michael Bourn has entered the game! "The 2010 MLB All-Star Game: Because Every Team Requires 1 Representative, Regardless of Qualifications!"
-Sweet Jesus, here it is! Valverde starts Bourn off with a fastball for strike 1. Another fastball, fouled off for strike 2. Bourn's in the hole quickly. Splitter away from Valverde for a swinging strike 3. 3 pitches. That's what I waited for, this whole game? 3 god damn pitches? "The 2010 MLB All-Sta....nope"
- Alright, here we go. Broxton on to close it.
-Can't pinch hit for John Buck, he's the only catcher left. Well well well John, lets see you make a fool of me again! Buck bloops a single into right field, Marlon Byrd throws Ortiz out at second.
- Ian Kinsler flies out. A-Rod doesn't play. NL wins for the first time in 14 years. Good night!

2010 MLB All-Star Game: Can the NL Turn it Around?

As has been well documented over the years, the NL hasn't performed very well in the all-star game. In fact, they haven't won it in 14 years. The disparity between the two leagues has been obvious- a product of many different factors, including the presence of the DH in the A.L. and excessive Yankee-Red Sox spending that has forced many teams who can't compete financially to step up their player development and scouting (which in effect, ushered in the era of sabermetrics).

But despite the remaining disparity, and the head-scratching selections Charlie Manuel made in shaping his end of the team (Lefty Specialist Arthur Rhodes?), The NL may have it's best chance in a long time to take the game and home field advantage in this years World Series. The reason fortune may change for the senior circuit is actually it's young, dynamic crop of pitchers. A staff featuring Ubaldo Jiminez, Josh Johnson, Tim Lincecum and Adam Wainwright could account for 6-7 strong innings before Manuel would ever have to turn to a Roy Halladay or a Chris Carpenter. The A.L. has its fair share of young talents, but the crop the N.L. features this year is quite impressive.

In a game where every pitcher is used as a reliever, the ability to strike people out is an especially important facet of the game. Of the 4 young N.L. studs listed above, Jiminez, a 15 game first half winner (for what that's worth) actually has the worst strikeouts per 9 innings (8.01) and the worst FIP (3.13) and he's the starter. On the American League side, starters who can boast a k/9 rate higher than 8 include Jon Lester, Jered Weaver and Phil Hughes. However, only Lester has what could be considered comparable "stuff" to the N.L. guns. Obviously, one bad inning from one of these guys could spell death for either team, but having a fair amount of young, over powering pitching can't hurt.

George Steinbrenner Dead

WCBS 880 in New York is reporting that Yankee Principle Owner George Steinbrenner has passed away after a massive heart attack at the age of 80. Steinbrenner, who had ceded control of the team to his children after the 2007 season, had been suffering with undisclosed medical issues for some time. He had been making little to no public appearances, and generally was only heard from via statements released to the public from his publicist.

Steinbrenner's legacy is a complicated matter, no surprise coming from an obviously complicated man. Since purchasing the Yankees from CBS in 1973 for 10 million dollars, Steinbrenner has had his fair share of ups and downs, including 7 world championships and 2 suspensions from baseball. His mindset, that nothing short of a world championship is success, has permeated into the psyche of all Yankee fans.

Stat Spotlight- BABIP: So Austin Jackson Isn't Ty Cobb?

No. He is not. Austin Jackson is most certainly not Ty Cobb. Not to say he isn't or won't be a nice player, but Jackson is probably not the player that blew the league away in April, winning the A.L. rookie of the month honors. In fact a few days into May, Jackson was batting .377, an average that was surely a product of a hot start and a small sample size.

But how does one explain a "hot start" reasonably? How can you tell when a player is a truly great, transcendent hitter, bound to compete for a batting title, or just a guy who's getting lucky? Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you BABIP. Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is a statistic used to weed out the Ichiro's from the Ajax's. What BABIP does is it eliminates strike-outs, walks and sacrifice flies from a hitters batting average, leaving only the balls he actually puts in play to be averaged out. By doing this, teams are better able to gauge whether or not a hitter has had an exceptional amount of luck (balls dropping in for hits, winds carrying out to right field, playing the Nationals regularly), or an exceptional amount of bad luck (diving stops by the short stops, strong throws from the hole to nab the runner, playing a team of 9 Carl Crawford clones) over the course of a season.

Let's go back to Jackson. His .377 batting average in early May was high not just because he was hot with the bat, but also because he was getting exceptionally lucky, to the tune of a .532 BABIP (league average is around .300). By comparison, Ichiro's career BABIP is .358, obscenely high in it's own right, but certainly not close to .532. So where is Jackson today? Well as you might expect, due to his obvious early season luck and his propensity to swing and miss 28 percent of the time, that batting average has dropped to a more reasonable, but still acceptable .300. And his BABIP, well that dropped too, by .117 points to .415. Obviously, AJAX's luck has started to run out. The problem for Tigers fans is that unless Jackson is a better hitter than Ichiro, that current BABIP is still WAY too high to be sustained. His luck may have started to run out, but it's still got a long way to go before it's gone. Because of that, his pretty .300 BA probably won't be around much longer either.

Ed. Note: BABIP also works in assessing how lucky a pitcher has been, in the exact same way it works for hitters. If a pitcher is allowing BABIP's well above or well below that .300 mark, he's probably dealt with his fair share of luck, good or bad. However, if your pitcher maintains an extremely high BABIP against, then he's probably this guy.

All-Star Weekend Future's Game

Over on ESPN.com, Keith Law posted his thoughts and observations from the Future's Game, held every All-Star weekend to showcase the top prospects in baseball. The thing about the game is the prospects seem to always be arbitrarily chosen by Major League Baseball, so although most of the candidates are worthy, there are always some head scratchers in the bunch.

That aside, the U.S. team beat the world team 9-1, behind Hank Conger's 3-run home run that earned him game MVP honors. Other stand out performances include Angels single-A super prospects Mike Trout, who despite being caught stealing did manage to run out a hustle double, and Eric Hosmer of the Royals system, who had 4 hits including 2 doubles. Current Major Leaguers Jason Heyward, Carlos Santana and Neftali Feliz all played in last year's game. The most likely player to be called up next from this year's game is Domonic Brown of the Phillies.

Lee update- Off to Texas

It was obvious Cliff Lee was heading out of town, what wasn't obvious was where he'd be going. Now we know. The Mariners sent Lee to the Rangers for first baseman Justin Smoak and 3 other prospects. In addition to Lee, the Mariners agree to send reliever Mark Lowe and 2.5 million to the cash strapped Rangers, who are still in the process of being sold to a new ownership group.

While a deal to the Yankees would have made sense for both sides involved, this one appears to make even more sense. In Lee, the Rangers get a bonafide number 1 starter, who currently sports a 2.34 ERA and a 2.21 FIP. His K/ BB ratio of Nearly 15/1 is obscene, and although he's leaving a pitchers park for a hitters, his 7.73 K's per 9 innings and 0.43 home runs allowed per 9 innings are good signs that his success will continue despite the change of home venue. The Rangers, who were already in 1st in the West, have solidified themselves as the class of the division, for now.

For the Mariners, GM Jack Zduriencik has done exceptionally well, especially considering the unimpressive haul they surrendered to obtain Lee in the first place. Smoak, Baseball America's 14th best prospect entering the year, is a huge upgrade at a position the Mariners had no long term solution for. A switch hitter with a plus glove, Smoak's Major League numbers thus far haven't been particularly impressive, but he is a rookie, and his minor league numbers suggest he'll be a player who hits and gets on base, even if the power doesn't develop (despite some scouting reports saying the power will develop, his highest ISO rating in the minors was .153- good, not great). The Mariners also won't have to worry about Lee beating them year after year by trading him to a division rival, as he has stated he'll test free agency after the season no matter what. Without knowing the rest of the players involved, it's difficult to get the full effect of the deal. But for a player of Lee's caliber, a return that includes a young, potential All-Star 1st baseman is a pretty good start.

Cliff Lee- Former Mariner?

The Yankees were said to be on the verge of acquired starting pitcher Cliff Lee on Friday, just hours before he was scheduled to pitch against them for the Mariners. The deal was to center around Yankees super-hitting prospect Jesus Montero, second baseman David Adams and a third, yet to be named player. Reportedly, talks between the two teams were non-existent before Yankees GM Brian Cashman decided Montero would be available in a package.

Newer reports say the talks broke down around the crop of prospects the Yankees would send along with Montero, although the deal may be revisited in the future. The potential here is win-win for both teams, with the Yankees keeping Lee away from other possible suitors (oh and he's been historically good this year too) and the Mariners getting much more than they initially surrendered for Lee with Montero alone.

Even if these two teams do not revisit the trade scenario, one thing is for sure- Cliff Lee isn't long for Seattle. The Mariners are currently 17 games below .500 and 16 games out of first in the AL West. Their offense has been terrible, and a huge bat like Montero's is very tempting, even if he's a year or two away.

RBI- The Whores to my Tiger Woods

I'm having a fair amount of difficulty letting the RBI go. It's not that I don't see the inherent flaw there, I do, but it's just so easy, so pretty. We are so ingrained with it as fans, so conditioned to approve of what it's telling us about our hitters (if they have a lot of them, they are good) that we can't simply say goodbye just because it's the right thing to do. To be the better man, I have to let it go, even if all I want to do is send the RBI dirty texts.

RBI, as you may or may not know, doesn't really measure anything. The ability to drive in runs isn't really a skill set, because if no one is on base in front of you, how could you display that skill? Do the great RBI men lose their ability as hitters if no one is there? And are we to believe that some players elevate their performance in "key" situations, like the one presented with men on base? If that is the case, surely there would be a better way to measure it than the RBI. And that argument is based on the assumption that some players elevate themselves at certain times, or simply don't play as hard or concentrate as hard in other instances, a premise many smart baseball men don't subscribe to.

But the average baseball fan is not even remotely close to leaving the RBI, so I think the sabermetric crowd shouldn't be so quick to discount it either. In a vague, very remote and abstract way, RBI can be viewed as a useful tool in player evaluation, when viewed through the prism of line-up placement. For instance, the 3-4-5 hitters in a line-up who generally put up the most impressive RBI totals are usually the better hitters on the team, in terms of combining power and average. Similarly, those at the bottom of the line-up who in a given year put up impressive RBI totals could be viewed as men who did a lot with much less, and made the most of their opportunities. Conversely, if a middle of the order bat puts up low RBI totals, barring a complete meltdown from the 1-2 hitters in terms of OBP (see, caveats to the value=flaws) then we can surmise he did not perform up to snuff.

If that extremely unscientific method of evaluating RBI worth doesn't do it for you, then you can always use the "clutch hitter" approach we discussed earlier. If that falls short, you can be like me and just enjoy it like one would enjoy an Adam Sandler movie- shut your brain off and find happiness in something that makes no sense. The truth is, if you drive in a lot of runs, chances are you're a pretty good hitter. If you do it consistently year after year, the chances are even better that you're a good hitter. It's not fool proof, but you'll probably end up being right more often than not. And when you're not right, you'll see the folly in it all. The RBI might not make you a better fan, but it's still the most fun to take an Ambien and fool around with.

Swisher, Votto Earn Final All-Star Spots

Usually, baseball fans are the ones who make the most egregious errors when it comes to All-Star balloting, but this year Charlie Manuel was not going to be outdone. In a rare instance of the fans correcting the baseball people, they elected Joey Votto to the NL All-Star team, correcting an oversight that would have been historic in it's gut-wrenching stupidity. Votto is having a superb season, posting a .417 OBP to go along with a .588 SLG percentage. According to WAR (Wins Above Replacement) Votto has been worth almost 4 wins to the Reds, who currently find themselves in contetion for the NL Central crown.

The case for Swisher is a bit less clear-cut, but he is having a fine season, with a .376 OBP and a .517 SLG percentage. Both his OBP and his batting average may be augmented thus far by some luck (a .344 BABIP, way above career norms) but any man who campaigns for himself like this has earned his spot.

Stat Spotlight- FIP: Because Players like Brad Hawpe Do Exist

The best way to evaluate any player is to try and isolate their performance in relation to the rest of their team. The inherent problem with RBI as a measurement of hitting is that it is completely predicated on people being on-base for the hitter. 2 players on opposing teams can hit 2-out doubles off the wall, but if one of those players has men on base, he gets the RBI, despite the identical hitting performances. ERA, the best way to gauge pitching performance for the casual fan, suffers from the same problem. Although it does account for fielding errors (differentiating between runs and earned runs) it still factors fielding into the equation, something a pitcher can't control at all.

It is because of this faulty premise on which ERA is built, we have FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). Created by Tom Tango, FIP mathematically assess all the major statistical categories for which a pitcher is solely responsible: walks, intentional walks, hit by pitches, strikeouts, home runs allowed, and innings pitched. Then, through some magical formula that at first glance makes no apparent sense to me, it creates a number that is weighted to look like an average run of the mill ERA,allowing for greater accessibility by the baseball masses.

Applying FIP to pitcher evaluation yield new ways of analyzing talent. Edwin Jackson's 2009 season, in which he posted a 3.64 ERA was hailed by many as the realization of his top of the rotation potential, after years of ERA's hovering around 5. But when fielding is taken out of the equation, we find that Jackson's '09 performance was actually a little more than half a run worse than what ERA indicated it was (FIP of 4.28). Conversely, Jackson's 2010 season thus far in which he's posted a 4.92 ERA has actually been, according to FIP, better than his previous season, despite the much uglier ERA (4.17 FIP).

Of course not every test case is going to look as wildly varied as Jackson's. Some players, like the Giants Tim Lincecum, have had ERA's and FIP's that are almost completely even statistically. Even Jackson's career ERA and career FIP are only off by .06 (Some of his early years with atrocious ERA's weren't as bad as you'd think). So ultimately what FIP does is take some of the guess work out of player evaluation. Instead of guessing which Edwin Jackson is going to show up, based on erratic ERA's, we have a smoother picture that tells us what Jackson really is, and has almost always been- a pitcher who will give up roughly 4 and a half runs per start.

Rod Barajas- I Told You So

If I have to hear one more Met fan tell me what a bargain Rod Barajas has been, I'm going to castrate....myself. The guilt of rearing a child in such a world would be unforgiving. Barajas was signed during the great Met back-up catcher sign-a-thon of 2009-2010, and began the season with a bang by hitting 11 home runs before June. Of course, home runs were really the only thing Barajas was hitting, other than fly-balls and nothing, so his on-base percentage hovered around his atrocious career norm of .283. If that OBP didn't make you vomit, surely the excitement of the typical Met fan over this performance would. One fan told me, "He's our number 8 hitter, he doesn't need to get on-base."

Excusing a hitter from doing the one thing he is intended to do is hilarious in and of itself, although this hair-brained notion did present an unintended argument- How much slugging is necessary to overlook a complete inability to get on base? Before reality set in and Barajas stopped hitting home-runs (since May 31st he has hit exactly 0) he had a more than sufficient .552 slugging percentage to go along with his sub-.300 OBP, giving him a 260 ISO. This was all a small sample size, but does the impressive power override the pathetic OBP? Barajas won't be able to sustain the power anyway (his slugging percentage currently stands at .447) so we won't know for sure just how valuable his first 2 months performance is, if extrapolated for an entire season. Historical cases have shown certain players with anemic OBP can be valuable with impressive ISO (Dave Kingman's 1976 season) but even that type of production only has a finite amount of value. In most instances players who can't get on-base generally also cannot sustain that type of power long-term, or aren't given the opportunity to show that they can sustain it because they don't get on enough.

So, for the moment, the findings are inconclusive. what we can conclusively show is that his numeric regression to his career norms indicate Rod Barajas is no Joe Mauer. Hell, this year he isn't even Miguel Olivo. Now, onto more important questions, like how does Rod Barajas continue to find work?

The Best There Is....

Anytime you go to a ballpark and see a player's face superimposed onto the body of Bret "The Hitman" Hart, it's a good day.

Ryan Howard-The Ft. Sumter of Baseball

If I had to choose the best place to start, it'd be Phillies slugger Ryan Howard. There isn't a player who better personifies the growing gap between the average fan and the know-it-all. Howard, for the uninitiated, is the 1st baseman for the Phillies who has consistently put up monster home-run and RBI totals since being called up for regular duty in 2005. Recently, he was awarded for his fine efforts with a 5 year, 125-million dollar contract extension that will ostensibly be worth no less than 135 million due to a sixth, option year which has a 10-million dollar buyout. Basically, Howard is being paid like one of the ten most valuable players in baseball, and why shouldn't he be? He's hit 235 home runs and driven in 512 runs since '05, while maintaining a batting average around the .280 mark. On top of that, his on-base percentage and slugging percentages have been in line with some of the best sluggers in the game. He's a beast, right?

Well, sort of. In the interim, Howard is certainly a high functioning middle of the order bat. ISO, a statistic that measures isolated power output (Done by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage), has always favored Howard. His career number of .296 kicks the living hell out of most other ISO contenders, a product of Howard's enormous frame and a home ballpark that makes the flea circus look like Las Vegas. But Howard's size may also ultimately be his undoing. In baseball circles, players like this are known as "bad body players"- those with a higher risk of breaking down in the long run. At 31, Howard's days as a mediocre first baseman (career UZR rating of -6) may already be numbered. By the time this contract reaches it's final years, he'll probably be a DH without the comfort of playing in a DH league.

Statistically, Howard also presents some glaring red-flags, mostly in the form of his inability to consistently hit left-handed pitching (career .229 hitter against lefties) and as was mentioned earlier, his fielding woes. He has also dealt with concerns about hitting the breaking pitch, which explains why nearly %35 of the pitches he has seen this year are either curveballs or sliders. Put it all together, and the Phillies have paid a premium for a player who is not premium worthy. Slugging first basemen aren't exactly difficult to find- but if you love the RBI, this is your man!

In The Beginning...

Mission Statement- Despite how juvenile this blog will undoubtedly be at times, it is intended to serve a greater purpose. As an avid baseball fan, I've noticed the growing rift between the average fan who chugs a beer and does a Ric Flair impression in the bleachers at Yankee Stadium and the executive who sits in a luxury box ordering security to remove said fan. It's a disconnect that has often been perpetuated by mainstream media, who seem to advocate for one side or the other, with little tolerance for the alternate opinion.

Of course, I'm talking about sabermetrics. The Major League Baseball teams of the 21st century slog through endless amounts of data, meticulous scouting reports, regression analysis, home/road splits, lefty/righty splits, WAR, BABIP, VORP, etc etc, while all the while the casual fan focuses on the classics: RBI, Runs, Batting Average. The disconnect is palpable and the worst part is no one seems intent on finding a peace between the two-sides.

Enter, this blog. It's purpose is bridge the gap between the opiate of the masses and the arcane. To try and help those who still own stock in the trolley find a new path, driving the hover-car. This blog is about where we've been, and where we're going. Creationists argue against evolution theory because it has gaps- I hope to fill a small gap that I believe is going unfilled. Why me? Because I'm relatively new to the baseball philosophies of today, just like many others. Yes, I was once like you, arguing that J.D. Drew was a terrible signing by Boston because he had had only one 100-RBI season. But I have begun my transition, and welcome many others to follow suit. There's a part in the movie "District 9" where the government/corporation/ some evil entity that I can't currently recall needs to kill and dissect the main character, because he is at the critical threshold between his humanity and becoming a prawn. I believe I am at that same point in my baseball fandom. So before I turn into Keith Law, allow me to kill and dissect myself, for you the reader, while there is still some Mike Francesa in me.