File this under "reader requested" entry. I was asked to explain on this blog where the Mets should position Jason Bay in the line-up, now that Carlos Beltran is back, to maximize his potential. The potential solution I was given was to bat Bay in front of, rather than behind Ike Davis, to give him some protection. Unfortunately for Met fans, I don't think a simple line-up shift can save Bay's season, because his problem isn't exactly an easy one to solve.
Well, identifying the problem is easy enough: Bay isn't hitting for any power. His season ISO of .158 is 75 points lower than his career average, and 111 points lower than the number he put up in 2009 (which only adds to the psychological trauma of the average Met fan, who saw that performance and thought it was what they were getting). Not coincidentally, Bay's Slugging percentage is also way down at .424, 87 points below his career average.
Now the hard part: why is this happening? Lining up and examining the usual suspects yields little insight. Injuries don't seem to be the issue, as Bay has played in all 86 games this season, accumulating 361 plate appearances. Unless there is a nagging injury that hasn't been disclosed, we have to eliminate it. We also can eliminate the "he's in a slump" explanation, because he really isn't. Sure, his .267 average and .357 OBP are a little low, and his BABIP has been a little high, but none of those numbers are too far off from career norms, and they certainly wouldn't be able to account for the total power outage we're seeing.
So if Bay is still hitting, and he isn't hitting for much power, we can begin to surmise that maybe the balls he is putting in play have been on the ground at a higher rate than usual. After all, you can't hit a home run on a ground ball to second, right? Unfortunately, that too is a dead end. On the season, Bay has been hitting ground balls 35.3 percent of the time and fly balls 45.4 percent of the time, compared to the 37.1 and 44.5 career averages. So actually, in terms of his ground ball to fly ball rate, Bay should be doing slightly more damage than usual in the power department.
But obviously, he isn't. His power has been comparable to that of a pre-pubescent girl--Just kidding, he's not Juan Pierre--and he's on pace to match last year's Met home run king, Daniel Murphy, with 12. Of course, what Bay shares with Murphy is their home ballpark, Citifield, a stadium with dimensions that make Central Park feel "homey." So then there it is, we have a clue that will lead to an answer. Citifield is eating Jason Bay home runs, like so many cookies smuggled into a fat camp. The problem there is, Bay's home/road splits show he is actually hitting for more power at home than on the road, to the tune of a .459/.388 SLG split.
My God, this man is infuriating! Now I know what Met fans feel--just kidding again, I know the warmth of a championship season-- but it is annoying. Maybe he's swinging at bad pitches? Fangraphs indicates he is swinging 6% more at balls out of the strike zone,and making more contact on those pitches, which would account for more bad balls put in play. Is that enough to account for all the lost power? I'm not sure, but I doubt it.
The truth is, Jason Bay just isn't having a very good season. Without any smoking gun, it's sort of hard to understand why. My best guess is it's mental, and at this point he's just pressing, which would explain the increased swings outside the strike zone. The good thing is, if it's mental, he could come out of it at any moment. The bad part is, if it's mental, he could get more and more bogged down. So, to answer the earlier part of the post, where to bat him, the answer is simple: anywhere, so long as it's ahead of Jeff Francouer and Rod Barajas!
No comments:
Post a Comment