Great post from July 20th on Rob Neyer's espn blog about Joba Chamberlain's unimpressive performance this season. Turns out, Chamberlain has not been nearly as bad as his 5.66 ERA would indicate (his FIP is actually 2.66). On top of that FIP, and the argument Neyer makes, it's also worth noting that Chamberlain's BABIP this season is an incredibly unlucky and unsustainable .405, meaning that of the balls put in play against him, 40 percent are falling in for hits, whereas league average is 30 percent.
Of course this feels like little consolation for Yankee fans, who have watched him give up at least a run in quite a few of his performances this season. And for those who say, "well maybe his stuff isn't as good and people are just hitting the ball harder" Neyer responds by saying that his rate of giving up line-drives (very hard hit balls) is up, but only slightly, and he has maintained his velocity. So in conclusion, the jury is still out on Joba, but all signs point to unluckiness being the main culprit in explaining the rough season. In fact, this all may just be relative, in that Chamberlain may simply be a victim of a his own hot start to his career. Yankee fans want and expect 2007 Joba, the fire-breathing dragon who struck everyone out, but that isn't very realistic. Although he may never be that again, he certainly should and probably will be a very good reliever.
No comments:
Post a Comment