Ryan Howard-The Ft. Sumter of Baseball

If I had to choose the best place to start, it'd be Phillies slugger Ryan Howard. There isn't a player who better personifies the growing gap between the average fan and the know-it-all. Howard, for the uninitiated, is the 1st baseman for the Phillies who has consistently put up monster home-run and RBI totals since being called up for regular duty in 2005. Recently, he was awarded for his fine efforts with a 5 year, 125-million dollar contract extension that will ostensibly be worth no less than 135 million due to a sixth, option year which has a 10-million dollar buyout. Basically, Howard is being paid like one of the ten most valuable players in baseball, and why shouldn't he be? He's hit 235 home runs and driven in 512 runs since '05, while maintaining a batting average around the .280 mark. On top of that, his on-base percentage and slugging percentages have been in line with some of the best sluggers in the game. He's a beast, right?

Well, sort of. In the interim, Howard is certainly a high functioning middle of the order bat. ISO, a statistic that measures isolated power output (Done by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage), has always favored Howard. His career number of .296 kicks the living hell out of most other ISO contenders, a product of Howard's enormous frame and a home ballpark that makes the flea circus look like Las Vegas. But Howard's size may also ultimately be his undoing. In baseball circles, players like this are known as "bad body players"- those with a higher risk of breaking down in the long run. At 31, Howard's days as a mediocre first baseman (career UZR rating of -6) may already be numbered. By the time this contract reaches it's final years, he'll probably be a DH without the comfort of playing in a DH league.

Statistically, Howard also presents some glaring red-flags, mostly in the form of his inability to consistently hit left-handed pitching (career .229 hitter against lefties) and as was mentioned earlier, his fielding woes. He has also dealt with concerns about hitting the breaking pitch, which explains why nearly %35 of the pitches he has seen this year are either curveballs or sliders. Put it all together, and the Phillies have paid a premium for a player who is not premium worthy. Slugging first basemen aren't exactly difficult to find- but if you love the RBI, this is your man!