Monday, July 26, 2010

Dan Haren to the Angels

The Los Angelos Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles county, state of California, United States of America acquired pitcher Dan Haren from the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday for pitcher Joe Saunders and 3 minor leaguers. On the surface, Haren isn't having a season that qualifies as "Ace status," what with a 4.60 ERA and a 7-8 record. Unfortunately that assessment of Haren is brain dead, because we here at saberdummies know that ERA is not the be all and end all of pitching quality, and win-loss record is largely irrelevant due to how reliant it is on team performance and not individual performance.

You can see where I'm going here. Haren has had a decent season, if unlucky, with the best strike-out rate of his career (9.21 K/9). His problem, as has been his problem for some time, is his penchant for giving up the long ball. His 14.1 percent HR/FB rate (meaning 14 percent of the fly balls he gives up leaves the park) is the highest of his career, and he isn't stranding the runners he puts on base with the same frequency of the last 3 seasons.

Dave Cameron at fangraphs had a good piece about why many scouts don't view Haren as an ace; namely his impeccable control. Perhaps if he threw a bit more out of the strike zone, he wouldn't give up as many home runs. Going to the AL probably won't help either, although Arizona's home ballpark wasn't exactly conducive to a lot of fly balls. We need to remember however that Haren's FIP is more than a half-run better than his ERA, and that strike-out rate will work well anywhere. Factoring in career norms, we can surmise Haren probably has some better pitching in him, and that luck of his will probably change too (.355 BABIP).

Overall, the Angels did well in acquiring a pitcher with good stuff, great control, and a workable contract for the next few seasons. In my estimation, Haren is not exactly an ace, but he can certainly be an effective number 2, who gives you ace-like stuff relatively often.

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