Alex Gonzalez Traded to the Braves

In a 5 player trade, the Toronto Blue Jays send shortstop Alex Gonzalez, shortstop Tyler Pastornicky and pitcher Tim Collins to the Braves in exchange for shortstop Yunel Escobar and pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes. The deal at first glance doesn't seem to make a whole lot of sense for the Braves, at least in the long-term, considering the ages of the 2 shortstops in the deal and the season both men are having.

Gonzalez, a 33 year-old known best for his fine glove work, has had something of a strange season for the Jays. Although he continues to show an inability to get on-base (career .294 OBP, .296 for the season) Gonzalez has, like every other Blue Jay, been hitting home-runs at an accelerated rate. In fact, Gonzalez's 17 first half home runs account for the second highest seasonal home-run total he's had, in his entire career (he hit 23 in 2004 for the Marlins). Historical precedent alone would indicate his power surge cannot be sustained, especially when he's leaving an environment where everyone seems to be hitting more homers than usual.

In contrast to Gonzalez, who's season has been something of a positive aberration--if only in 1 facet of his game-- Escobar's season has been an aberration of the negative variety. a career .291 hitter with a .368 career OBP, Escobar is having a very difficult time at the plate in 2010, hitting well below his career norms. Escobar is batting .238, a drop that also accounts for his below average .338 OBP., and his atrocious .284 slugging percentage have made him an offensive albatross. For a team in contention like the Braves, an upgrade for the stretch run is not necessarily a bad idea, but here's the problem: Gonzalez's superior, yet still flawed performance has just as good a chance of evaporating as Escobar's performance does of improving.

Because his numbers are so far below career norms, and because he's just been unlucky (a .270 BABIP) Escobar's chances of performing in the future like the 3.3 career WAR player that he is, are fairly good. On top of that, Escobar is only 27, and will be under Blue jay control until 2014, whereas Gonzalez is under contract only for this season. It is also worth noting that defensively, both players rate rather well in their respective UZR, with Escobar having the edge thus far this year. Overall, if we view the deal strictly in terms of the major league shortstops swapped, it seems short sighted on the Braves part to give up on Escobar so soon, and even in the short-term it still might not be particularly smart.